I'll Have Another: Derby Champion Won't Repeat His Performance at the Preakness

I'll Have Another ran the perfect race at the 138th Kentucky Derby, avoiding the crowd from Post 19, settling just ahead of the pack for the majority of the race and making the perfect push down the stretch to steal the race from Bodemeister.

Do not expect a repeat performance at the Preakness.

For one thing, expecting another perfect run for I'll Have Another and jockey Mario Gutierrez would not be wise—I don't see them topping their impeccable Race for the Roses. Remember, they came into the race with 15-1 odds for one reason.

People did not expect them to win.

For another, Bodemeister may have actually been the most impressive horse. Consider the following, from Gary West of ESPN:

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Although beaten Saturday, he gave a superlative performance, leading through three-quarters of a mile in 1:09.80 and a mile in 1:35.19. Bodemeister became only the sixth horse in Derby history to run the opening six furlongs under 1:10, and of those only the second to "hit the board," or finish in the top three. (Spend a Buck won the 1985 Derby after opening up a six-length advantage in 1:09.60.) The imagination almost has to wonder and speculate about what might have happened if only the sprinter Trinniberg, a 44-1 long shot who never had raced beyond seven furlongs, had not been entered in the Derby. Trinniberg pressed the pace before fading to 17th.

"

If Bodemeister enters the Preakness, it is hard to imagine the horse losing at the shorter track. The fact remains that had Bodemeister not needed to open with such a suicidal pace to escape the crowd from Post 6, he likely would have possessed enough juice to close the race victoriously.

That is not good news for I'll Have Another.

Nor is the confirmed presence of Hansen, another sprinter that will benefit from the shorter track and smaller field—14 horses as opposed to 20—at Pimlico.

We all want I'll Have Another to buck the odds, surprise us again at the Preakness and Belmont Stakes and end Horse Racing's long Triple Crown drought.

But it is not happening, not this year. I think I'll Have Another will have a legitimate shot at Belmont Stakes.

But at the Preakness, expect Bodemeister, if he is entered, to win that day. He's simply too talented and too fast to lose at Pimlico.

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