LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant: Behind the Numbers for MVP
With this grueling regular season finally in the books, the NBA MVP race has come down to the wire between LeBron James and Kevin Durant.
The term itself, most valuable player, is one that is always difficult to define. If the award was Most Outstanding Player, things would be much easier—you just give the award to the best basketball player that season which could fairly easily be deduced from statistical analysis.
But MVP always has a little grey area. There are several popular arguments that analysts use to build a case for a player, including:
1. The guy with the best stats.
2. The best player on the best team.
3. How bad would his team suck if he weren't in the lineup?
Some years it is easy. One player simply rises above everyone else in the league and is the clear-cut winner. But this is not that year. Technically, there are four other candidates with partially legitimate arguments—Kobe Bryant, Kevin Love, Tony Parker and Chris Paul— but none of their resumes are as complete as those submitted by Kid Clutch and The Decider.
NBA MVP is usually difficult to quantify with raw data, but this year is a little different. Let's take a look at some per game stats on our subjects:
| PER GAME | ||
| Durant | James | |
| Minutes | 38.6 | 37.5 |
| Points | 28.0 | 27.1 |
| FG% | 46.8% | 53.1% |
| 3P% | 36.4% | 36.2% |
| FT% | 87.8% | 77.1% |
| Steals | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Assists | 3.5 | 6.2 |
| Rebounds | 8.0 | 7.9 |
| Blocks | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| TO | 3.8 | 3.4 |
At this point, it is a bit of a wash. Durant won his third consecutive scoring title this season and is considered by most to be the best scorer in the league—despite James' higher FG percentage due to more shots in the paint. But LeBron is only a small step behind offensively and is a much better defender when he wants to be. James' assist numbers probably give him the slight edge so far.
Per game stats really don't do a good job of describing the MVP, though. For that, advanced stats paint a much clearer picture:
| Advanced | ||
| Durant | James | |
| PER | 26.2 | 30.7 |
| Reb% | 11.8% | 12.6% |
| Assist% | 17.5% | 33.3% |
| Steal% | 10.8% | 2.6% |
| TO% | 14.0% | 13.3% |
| Block% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| Use% | 31.3% | 31.9% |
| eFG% | 54.7% | 51.6% |
| +/- | 5.56 | 7.65 |
*Go here for a glossary of advanced stat explanations.
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and the different percentage rates do as good of a job as any stat describing how valuable a player is. LeBron's higher PER and plus-minus speak to his greater efficiency and impact on the game, respectively.
The stat that stands out the most is the fact that James accounts for 33.3% of his team's assists, good enough for 13th in the league. He is the only non-point guard in the top 20. This is an important measure of a player's value to a team and James is nearly double Durant in this category.
So from a statistical standpoint, LeBron James is the clear winner. The MVP award, however, is not just awarded based on stats. Since the award is voted by humans, player perception and popularity often play a large role in deciding the winner.
In this regard, Durant would have a decided edge. His squeaky-clean image and quick rise to success have made him one of the most popular and well-liked players in the league. LeBron James, on the other hand, has been largely viewed as a villain since he left his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers in dramatic fashion to "take his talents to South Beach."
While it seems most have already pegged LeBron as the winner—this outcome is supported fairly convincingly by his impressive statistical accumulation this season—don't make the mistake of not giving proper weight to their polar opposite perception around the league.
This race is closer than most people think.
