2012 NBA Playoff Preview and Predictions: San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz
Record: 50-16
Analysis: For seemingly the third straight season, the Spurs geared up for "one last run" at a championship.
But these aren't the same Spurs that dominated the last decade, even if the old guard of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker remains intact.
Gone is the defense-first philosophy in favor of a style more reminiscent of Mike D'Antoni's Suns squads. The Spurs are second in the NBA in scoring, while ranking only 16th in points allowed.
It's hard to argue the success of the new style, as it's enabled the Spurs to capture the No. 1 seed while limiting the minutes of Duncan (career-low 28.2 minutes per game) and Ginobili (23.3 minutes per game).
However, a faster pace hasn't traditionally translated to playoff success, as D'Antoni's Suns proved with four playoff appearances in five years without reaching the NBA Finals.
Perhaps the Spurs will shorten their bench (12 players average 6.4 or more points per game) and slow their pace during the postseason.
After last year's first round loss to the No. 8-seed Grizzlies, they certainly won't be looking past any opponents.
Record: 36-30
Analysis: Little was expected of a squad that missed the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
The venerable Jerry Sloan, the only coach to record 1,000 wins with one team, was unceremoniously jettisoned from the team last winter.
Deron Williams, believed by many Utah fans as the one to lead the Jazz to the Promised Land, was exiled to New Jersey after management felt that re-signing the All-Star guard was impossible.
With the 2011-12 team littered with young, but unproven talent, piloted by a coach (Tyrone Corbin) with little experience, you can excuse those in Salt Lake City if they lacked postseason aspirations.
Yet those in the Jazz locker room must have been oblivious to this apathy, as the team pulled off one of the biggest surprises in the abbreviated season, winning 36 games to clinch the final playoff spot in the spirited Western Conference.
While most of the NBA has converted to an up-temp offensive style, Utah went with an old-school approach, pounding it in the post, creating an inside-to-out attack. This vintage strike correlated to 99.7 points per game, fourth-best in the association.
Big men Al Jefferson (19.2 points, 9.6 rebounds) and Paul Millsap (16.6 points, 8.8 boards) directed this assault, with greenhorns Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter assisting the effort under the boards.
But Utah's destiny will be tied to the guard play of Devin Harris (11.3 points, 5.0 assists) and Gordon Hayward (11.8 points). While Hayward has turned it on as of late (17.2 points in April), Harris has been a precarious point.
If the Jazz hope to making an extended run this spring, Harris will need to be a consistent and safe presence running the show.
Winning Percentage of 1001 Simulations: Spurs 92.5 percent - Jazz 7.5 percent
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