2012 MLB Player Prop Bets Odds: Regular-Season Home Run Title

The Major League Baseball season is over three weeks old, and the opening odds at the LVH SuperBook for the 2012 regular-season home run race have changed drastically for some of the players off to fast starts as well as slow starts.

Let’s take a look, in order of the players with the most home runs after Thursday's (April 26) games, and how the odds have recently changed for those guys in the big leagues who are known for putting the ball in the seats.

I’ll also add some opinion on whether I think these players have a chance to win this proposition bet. The Toronto Blue Jays' Jose Bautista helped pay off his backers with his 43 dingers last season.

Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers

2012 Home Runs: 10

2011 Home Runs: 39 (third in MLB)

Current Odds: 5/2 (lowest odds)

April 6 Odds: 20/1

Opening Odds: 30/1

The Skinny

Anyone smart enough to grab Kemp at 30/1 is feeling pretty good right about now, as the payout has dropped more than tenfold from the opening numbers at the LVH SuperBook with the Dodgers’ slugger's hot start.

Although it’s way early, Kemp has a legitimate shot at winning the Triple Crown in the National League, as he’s currently tops in the aforementioned home runs (10), RBI (22) and batting average (.455).

Probably too late to bet now at 5/2, Kemp has become one of MLB’s elite players and is no doubt fueled by the reality that he probably should have won the NL MVP last season over the Brewers Ryan Braun.

Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers

2012 Home Runs: 9

2011 Home Runs: 25 (tied for 39th)

Current Odds: 8/1

April 6 Odds: 40/1

Opening Odds: 40/1

The Skinny

Maybe the best player on the best team in MLB right now, Hamilton is another guy who is giving early backers (40/1) their money’s worth right now.

At 8/1, it may not be too late to get down on Hamilton, but you better hurry. If he gets to 15 before Kemp or anyone else, you’ll likely never see odds of 5/2 or better again, barring an injury.

With Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli, the Rangers lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers and may carry them to a world championship this year.

Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers

2012 Home Runs: 7

2011 Home Runs: 30 (tied for 21st)

Current Odds: 15/1

April 6 Odds: 80/1

Opening Odds: 80/1

The Skinny

Talk about a hot commodity in the HR futures marketplace...

Napoli, one of the most underrated players in MLB despite finally starting to get his due, has gone from opening odds of 80/1 to 15/1 in 18 days. He is a real threat to shock the world here, especially considering he bats in the No. 8 spot in the Rangers lineup.

The Field

Current Odds: 8/1

April 6 Odds: 12/1

Opening Odds: 13/1

The Skinny

For those who don’t know, “The Field” bet represents all the MLB players not listed as individual entries on the regular-season home run title proposition bet offerings.

Always a decent wager and one that historically sees its payoff odds go down—as they already have this season—this year’s players who fall into this category will make it a fun bet for its backers.

Included are the Orioles catcher Matt Wieters (6 HR) and future star Nolan Reimold (5), A’s rookie Yoenis Cespedes (5), the Marlins' Omar Infante (5), the Diamondbacks' Chris Young (5), the Cardinals' Carlos Beltran (5), the Red Sox' Cody Ross (5) and the Twins' Josh Willingham (5).

Also in “The Field” bet are the Blue Jays' Kelly Johnson (4) and Edwin Encarnacion (4), the Yankees' Derek Jeter (4) and Nick Swisher (4), the Rays' Carlos Pena (4) and Matt Joyce (4), the White Sox' A.J. Pierzynski (4), the Twins' Justin Morneau (4), the Angels Vernon Wells (4), the Royals' Billy Butler (4), the Padres' Chase Headley (4), the Phillies' Shane Victorino (4) and Pirates rookie Pedro Alvarez (4).

And in this bet, you also get everyone else in MLB not listed on the proposition sheet. Not a bad deal at 8/1, but if you like that price, better grab it now, buster.

Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees

2012 Home Runs: 7

2011 Home Runs: 41 (second)

Current Odds: 10/1

April 6 Odds: 20/1

Opening Odds: 20/1

The Skinny

He doesn’t look like a home run hitter, but this Bronx Bomber proved he can go deep last season. He finished second in the big leagues, just two dingers behind Bautista.

At 20/1, Granderson was a great value bet, and at 10/1, he still may be worth a serious look. He’s no fluke.

Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

2012 Home Runs: 6

2011 Home Runs: 30 (tied for 21st)

Current Odds: 12/1

April 6 Odds: 10/1

Opening Odds: 10/1

The Skinny

Another dude who doesn’t get enough press, Cabrera’s odds have actually gone up from 10/1 to 12/1, so if you’re a believer in a right-handed hitter being able to win this prop as Bautista did last year, jump on it now before he spurts into double-digit territory.

Cabrera homered today against the Mariners in Detroit.

Corey Hart, Milwaukee Brewers

2012 Home Runs: 6

2011 Home Runs: 26 (tied for 34th)

Current Odds: 25/1

April 6 Odds: 100/1

Opening Odds: 100/1

The Skinny

Another slugger whose odds have dropped after a hot start, Hart plays with NL MVP Ryan Braun in Milwaukee.

At 25/1, Brewers fans are advised to take Hart over Braun, as I think he’ll have a better shot in the end of catching up to guys like Kemp, Fielder and Granderson.

Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles

2012 Home Runs: 5

2011 Home Runs: 26 (tied for 39th)

Current Odds: 30/1

April 6 Odds: 150/1

Opening Odds: 150/1

The Skinny

A player who has really burst onto the scene lately, Jones and teammate Wieters give Orioles fans hope for the future in a very deep division.

Anyone holding a ticket at Jones at 150/1 should have a real fun time watching from now until October.

Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers

2012 Home Runs: 5

2011 Home Runs: 32 (tied for 32nd)

Current Odds: 50/1

April 6 Odds: 60/1

Opening Odds: 60/1

The Skinny

Here’s a bet I think you should jump on now.

The always overlooked Kinsler is a big reason the Rangers went to the World Series last season, and once the weather heats up in Arlington, the balls have a tendency to carry farther.

True, Kemp (10) has twice as many homers as Kinsler to date, but at 50/1, a $10 wager would net you a nice little $500 payoff should this durable right-handed hitter surge up the MLB home run standings.

Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals

2012 Home Runs: 5

2011 Home Runs: 19

Current Odds: 80/1

April 6 Odds: 80/1

Opening Odds: 80/1

The Skinny

Hosmer’s odds have remained the same since the LVH SuperBook’s openers came out. With just 19 homers last season, I’d only recommend getting down on the youngster if you’re a diehard Royals fan and want to have some fun seeing if he can pull this off.

Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers

2012 Home Runs: 5

2011 Home Runs: 11

Current Odds: 60/1

April 6 Odds: 100/1

Opening Odds: 100/1

The Skinny

Off to a nice power start, Ethier is another guy I doubt will end up on top after just hitting 11 home runs in 2011.

Dodgers fans may want a small bet on this left-handed hitter, but at 60/1, I believe the odds are not good enough. At 80/1, or back to the opening odds of 100/1, it might be worth a shot in the future if you're an Ethier fan.

Players with Four Home Runs Through April 26

The Skinny

There are seven guys with four home runs so far (through Thursday’s games) with individual prop bet listings...

The White Sox' Paul Konerko is now up to 150/1 after being at 100/1 on April 6 and opening up at 100/1 before the MLB season began.

The right-handed veteran is very capable of making a run, although little money has come in on Konerko, driving his odds up to 150/1 currently. Maybe.

Konerko’s teammate Adam Dunn, a flop last year (11), has always been known as a big power (and strikeout) hitter. The left-handed hitter opened up at 40/1, fell to 20/1 and is now listed back at 40/1 to be the regular season home run king. I say no.

The Marlins' Hanley Ramirez (10 in 2011) has never really been known as a big power guy, but almost has half of his final total from last season.

Ramirez opened up at 100/1, stayed there on April 6 and has now dropped to 60/1 due to the quick start. I say stay away.

NL MVP Ryan Braun of the Brewers had all sorts of steroid controversy in the offseason and is capable of making a run, especially considering he hit 33 home runs last season.

The right-handed hitter opened up at 30/1, stayed there on April 6 and has now seen his odds increase to 50/1. May be worth a serious look.

The Cardinals' Matt Holliday (22 in 2011) is always one of baseball’s best hitters and a huge reason the Cardinals may be able to repeat as world champions this season.

Holliday opened up at 100/1 and has stayed right there. At those odds, throwing a small amount on the right-handed hitter is advised. Once the weather heats up in St. Louis, he could go on a power binge.

Another Cardinals right-handed hitter worth a serious look is NLCS and World Series MVP David Freese, who hit 19 home runs last regular season.

Freese opened up at a robust 200/1, stayed there on April 6 and has now been bet down to 100/1 on April 25. Some smart money, in my opinion.

One thing to watch with the Cardinals right-handed hitter is his health. A finger injury nagged him and kept him out of the St. Louis lineup a week ago, but I think betting on Freese at these odds (100/1) is certainly worth a shot and something I may be doing myself in the next three days.

The Reds' Jay Bruce (4) opened at 20/1, stayed at 20/1 on April 6 and is now up to 40/1. Anyone thinking Bruce may finally realize his full potential would be well served to take a shot on this right-handed slugger now at 40/1. 

Five Surprising Slow Starters

Here are five players who were on or near the top of the odds list when it came out who have started off very, very slowly...

The Marlins' Giancarlo Stanton had the lowest opening odds at the LVH SuperBook at 6/1, and I actually thought he was going to have an incredible year hitting home runs for Miami.

Stanton still has yet to go deep, and his odds have dropped accordingly to 25/1. He hit 34 last season and would have to hit 10 just to catch Kemp now. Not going to happen. Stay away.

Defending champ Jose Bautista (3) has always been a guy who hits home runs in spurts. The Blue Jays slugger opened at 8/1 and is now at 7/1. Your call.

A major surprise for all baseball fans has been the anemic start of Albert Pujols, the new toy of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (seriously guys, can’t we shorten that back?).

Long considered the best player in the game, King Albert has zero—that’s right, zero home runs—just four RBI and is hitting .224.

Consider that the Orioles' Endy Chavez had four RBI and one home run in one game Monday night in a loss to the Rangers.

Pujols opened at 9/1, but somehow, has strangely dropped to 8/1 despite his lethargic start. I’m blaming tourists from La La Land here visiting Sin City.

Injuries have hampered the Phillies' Ryan Howard—he has no home runs as he hasn’t played yet and the Tigers' Prince Fielder is also off to a slow start with just two longballs. These two are usually two of the perennial favorites in the MLB home run race.

Fielder’s odds have gone up to 12/1 from its 10/1 opening number, while Howard’s odds have done the same, going up to 300/1 from 200/1.

Better kKeep your money in your pocket for those two.

Conclusion

One guy I consider worth mentioning who has three home runs so far is the Yankees' switch-hitting Mark Teixeira. The first baseman opened up at 15/1 and has stayed there, and I truly believe he is capable of still ending up with 40 home runs if everything goes right.

For me, the six best bets to really consider (and get the best value on) at these current odds are Hamilton (8/1), "The Field," (8/1), Teixeira (15/1), Kinsler (50/1), Holliday (100/1) and Freese (100/1).

Different sportsbooks have different odds so be smart and shop around. Historically, the LVH SuperBook—the planet’s largest and most renowned—usually offers the best and fairest odds on all futures and proposition bets.

And should two (or more) players end up tying for the MLB home run lead, the winners’ odds are then divided by the number of winners.

Good luck.

Follow me on Twitter: @KevinStott11