By the Numbers: The Mountain West Conference's BCS Hopes

Much has been written lately about the merits of the Mountain West Conference trying to gain automatic-bid status to the Bowl Championship Series, securing the guaranteed payout that comes with the bid.

Especially following the Utah Utes impressive season that culminated in perfection with a Sugar Bowl victory over Alabama.

But, does one season of perfection merit inclusion into college football's elite? Alright, for you 2005 revisionists, how about two perfect seasons?

The answer, of course, is as complicated as the very nature of college football itself.  The "BCS conference" proponents point to tradition, NFL alumni, TV ratings, coaches salaries, five-star recruits, ticket sales, and many other factors that  influence such decisions.

But, isn't that the same type of built-in "hype" that the polls and media outlets have fed the college football world with the result that some very good teams have been prevented from even getting a chance at the big games?

Last I checked the NCAA has sanctioned 120 college football programs to play at the FBS (I-A) level of collegiate athletics.  However, a complete kow-tow to the conference presidents, bowl presidents, and established power brokers have left the NCAA on the sidelines while only 66 teams (barely 55% of the total division) have the opportunity to crack the big money bowl games.  We'll ignore the non-BCS bowl games that payout an even greater percentage of funds to the BCS conferences.

The one fact that hasn't been discussed is the actual performance of the teams on the field.  Shouldn't that be the lone factor in deciding the worthiness of a conference to be a member of the "big boys club"?

First of all, in order for a non-BCS conference to prove it's worth, the schools have to be able to schedule games against those BCS conference titans.  With only three to five non-conference opponents to schedule each season, it makes it very difficult to find matching dates. Of course, most of the BCS conference teams don't like to schedule difficult out-of-conference games, especially tough road games.

So, the MWC teams have to be aggressive in scheduling games against non-BCS opponents, and aside from BYU, Utah, and TCU, usually have to schedule two road games to get one home game against BCS opponents.

Over the last four seasons the Mountain West Conference has played 65 games against BCS opponents (including Notre Dame,) with eight of those being bowl games. Out of the 135 possible non-conference games the MWC teams have played, 57 of those have been against BCS opponents, for a rate of 42%.

42% of all the teams potential non-conference games have been scheduled against BCS conference opponents over the last 4 seasons. That represents a very aggressive attempt to prove their mettle against BCS teams.

During that time span, only twice has a single team not had a BCS conference opponent (either a bowl or regular season game). Air Force in 2008 and UNLV in 2005.

In all of those games the MWC has posted a 31-34 record against those opponents. Not a winning record, but respectable nonetheless, especially for a conference considered to be "mid-major." Here is a more detailed breakdown of their match-ups.

15-11 against the Pac Ten, outscoring them 680 to 642.
8-8 against the BIG XII, outscored by them 360 to 338.
3-2 against the SEC, outscoring them 112 to 101.
1-4 against the Big Ten, outscored by them 140 to 68.
1-2 against the Big East, outscored by them 127 to 101.
2-4 against the ACC, outscoring them 116 to 107.
1-3 against Notre Dame, outscored by them 133 to 94

Total: 31-34, 1,610 points allowed to 1,509 points scored.
Average score: 24.8 to 23.2

Factor in that 34 of these games were on the road (61% of regular season games,) and this should give some respect towhat the MWC has accomplished on the field.

From top to bottom, the MWC goes out there and plays ball, and still does not get the respect they deserve unless a team goes undefeated. The college football world needs to recognize that the conference is solid through and through, and should get that national respect even when they beat each other.

Need more proof? Let's look at the criteria that the BCS has posted to review the worthiness of which conferences will get auto-bid status. The current BCS review period started in 2008 and runs thru 2011, and the exact listing is at this website: 
http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfb/eligibility

Let's take a look at the exact data to be reviewed, based on this statement:

"The evaluation data includes the following for each conference (1) the ranking of the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings each year, (2) the final regular-season rankings of all conference teams in the computer rankings used by the BCS each year and (3) the number of teams in the top 25 of the final BCS standings each year."

(1) - The ranking of the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings:
1- #1-Big XII
2- #2-SEC
3- #5-Pac Ten
4- #6-MWC
5- #8-Big Ten
6- #9-WAC
7- #12-Big East
8- #14-ACC
9- #22-MAC
n/a-Conference USA
n/a-Sun Belt

(2) - Final regular-season rankings of all conference teams in the computer rankings used by the BCS each year:

1-SEC
2-Big XII
3-ACC
4-Big East
5-Pac Ten
6-MWC
7-Navy
8-Big Ten
9-Notre Dame
10-WAC
11-Conference USA
12-MAC
13-Sun Belt

(3) - The number of teams in the top 25 of the final BCS standings each year:

1 - Big XII - 5 teams (42% of teams)
2 - Big Ten - 4 teams (36%)
3 - SEC - 4 teams (33%)
4 - MWC - 3 teams (33%)
5 - ACC - 3 teams (25%)
6 - Big East - 2 teams (25%)
7 - Pac Ten - 2 teams (20%)
8 - WAC - 1 team (11.1%)
9 - MAC - 1 team (8%)
n/a Conference USA
n/a Sun Belt

So, using the criteria that the BCS has established the Mountain West has finished fourth, sixth, and fourth, based on the 2008 regular season rankings.

We'll have to wait and see over the next three seasons of football, but if the MWC can continue to be successful in scheduling and beating BCS schools, there should be no argument that they belong in the money.