2012 NFL Draft: Who's Going Where?

By now, we know what most of the draft experts are thinking, and they are drooling just thinking about Thursday night and the following two days of the NFL Draft. Instead, my natural curiosity was to investigate what oddsmakers are thinking about and how they see certain aspects of the draft playing out. I visited two websites (for entertainment purposes only), Sportsbook.ag and Bovada.lv, combed through what they had to offer and gave my choices on the upcoming festivities.

How many quarterbacks will be taken in the first round?

Over 3.5 +160

Under 3.5 -230

Analysis: The smart money is the UNDER, with Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Ryan Tannehill all locks. There is absolutely no reason for Brandon Weeden to be taken in the first round, but sometimes teams get jumpy if they lose a player they expected to be there, especially in the last 12 picks of the first round. I would still stick with the UNDER nonetheless.

How many running backs will be taken in the first round?

Over 1.5 +160

Under 1.5 -230

Analysis: With the amount of negative talk all NFL Draft websites have featured, other then Trent Richardson there is not one other running back worth considering among the first 32 picks. Time has shown you can find an effective back later in the draft, and with more teams using two players to share the load, the need is diminished unless you have a stud who will lineup in the backfield from day one.

Miami’s Lamar Miller, Virginia Tech’s David Wilson or Boise State’s Doug Martin might all deserve some consideration, but any NFL GM with a clue takes one of these three in the second round at the earliest.

How many wide receivers will be taken in the first round?

Over 3.5 -350

Under 3.5 +225

Analysis: This should be the easiest wager of all, playing the UNDER and collecting a sizeable chunk of change. Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd are first-round locks and somebody will be sweet on Baylor’s Kendall Wright, justified or not, in the first round.

Beyond this trio, there is no pass-catcher that is an immediate impact player to be taken in the first round. Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill is a reach, as is LSU’s Rueben Randall or Rutgers' Mohamed Sanu. I could be wrong, but for my money this is the best risk/reward wager of the draft with the UNDER.

Who will be the 3rd overall pick of the draft?

Matt Kalil -175

Morris Claiborne +105

Justin Blackmon +405

Riley Reiff +1000

Analysis: The Minnesota Vikings are being built around Christian Ponder and their immediate need is at left tackle, where Matt Kalil fits perfectly. Reports out of the land of 10,000 lakes has the Vikings still willing to make a major deal with a team that really wants this pick. It would seem unlikely that would be the case, unless Washington would opt out on RG3 and trade down.

I agree with most scouts that Claiborne might ultimately be a bigger star in the NFL, and in the the NFC North, the number of top-flight receivers might beg for the Vikings to improve their secondary. Nonetheless, Kalil is the type of foundation player the Vikings need. Let’s lean Kalil.

Who will be the 4th overall pick of the draft?

Trent Richardson -200

Ryan Tannehill +150

Justin Blackmon +425

Morris Claiborne +600

Analysis: If Cleveland does not take Richardson with this selection, Mike Holmgren should be fired on the spot. Whatever are any thoughts on Colt McCoy, one point is inarguable: he has no playmakers around him. Taking Richardson is the first step, with a versatile and explosive performer. Can anyone explain why Tannehill is even being considered a top-10 pick? A top-20 pick? A first-round pick? Richardson has to be the choice here.

Who will be the 5th overall pick of the draft?

Morris Claiborne -180

Trent Richardson +175

Stephen Gilmore +250

Ryan Kalil +725

Analysis: If for some reason Cleveland trades down, Richardson has to look awfully tempting to Tampa Bay, because LaGarrette Blount is not an every down back. The Buccaneers front office has stated they are solidly behind often-troubled CB Aqib Talib, which is probably the case for this season. However, if Talib continues to be an off-the-field distraction, having Claiborne already in the fold is a wise move. Take Claiborne here.

Who will be drafted first?

Morris Claiborne -350

Justin Blackmon +225

Analysis: With the needs of Minnesota and Tampa Bay, the former LSU cornerback is the safer pick. There is a possibility Minnesota finds the right trade and Cleveland decides to go with a perimeter playmaker like Blackmon to help McCoy at quarterback. However that seems more like speculation than reality; so we’ll pencil in Claiborne as the choice.

Who will be drafted first?

Riley Reiff -200

Dontari Poe +150

Analysis: When looking at team needs, this definitely seems like one of the easier props to win on. Any draft board you look at, the absolute lowest you find Iowa’s Reiff is at No. 13 with Arizona, with Buffalo a possible earlier destination depending on how the early picks go. Conversely, Poe for the most part settles in the 18-24 range with most draft experts, though Mike Tanier of Yahoo’s Shutdown Corner has him as high as No. 11, but still behind Reiff overall. Let’s take the favorite to win out.

Who will be drafted first?

Courtney Upshaw -350

Nick Perry +225

Analysis: It is surprising this is even a head-to-head betting prop. Upshaw is the superior player and has more upside, a better motor and intangibles teams are looking for. That is not to say Perry is not a solid player, and it is not wise to assume anyone could not develop an unforeseen desire to excel. However, Perry does not stand above his peers at his position and would need a Tim Tebow moment (somebody that is crazy about him when everyone else is lukewarm) to be taken ahead of Upshaw.

Draft Position of Ryan Tannehill: No. 8 Selection

Over -150

Under +110

Analysis: This is a tough call, trying to separate personal feelings from NFL scouting realities. Most of what you hear about Tannehill is above-average arm strength, above-average athleticism and the overall tools to play quarterback in the NFL. You never hear the phrase “star potential,” especially for a player that is projected to go at No. 8. Those fawning over Tannehill talk about a positive upside; well sure, he’s only played 19 games at the position in college and was surrounded by great talent and an offensive-minded coach. There is no doubt Cleveland might be silly enough to take him at No. 4, but the smart is on Miami to do so at No. 8.

Still, rumors persist new coach Joe Philbin is not excited about Tannehill in spite of his offensive coordinator being Mike Sherman, Tannehill’s coach at College Station. Owner Stephen Ross will be expected to have the final say, looking for ways to excite a frustrated fan-base. The best thing that could happen to the Dolphins is the Browns go brain-dead and take Tannehill ahead of them and they get the player they need. My choice would be OVER, but the best bet is to pass.

Draft Position of Kendall Wright: No. 23.5 Selection

Over -140

Under Even

Analysis: Kendall Wright is like ice cream: if he one of your favorite flavors, you choose him sooner rather than later. But if he looks like strawberry with walnut chunks (or came to the NFL combine overweight, ran slower-than-expected times and was ordinary in the review process), you can probably find something you prefer at the moment and try that kind another time.

You still cannot overlook the overall picture, Wright is the third-best pass-catcher in the draft and has the skills to go along with Trent Richardson and give McCoy of the Browns another new toy at the No. 22 draft slot. Play Under.

Draft Position of Brandon Weeden: No. 36.5 Selection

Over -200

Under +150

Analysis: Weeden’s biggest downfall is his age, at 28 years old. That doesn’t mean Weeden couldn't get drafted, compete for a job this season, learn the system and start in 2013, giving a team in need six or more productive seasons, but it has to be the right fit.

It is hard to imagine anyone taking the former minor league baseball player in the first 32 picks, yet a possibility could arise early in the second round. Sam Bradford will have to prove himself in St. Louis, and if new coach Jeff Fisher is not overly enthused and if he likes Weeden, which is a long shot, the Rams could take him at No. 33. After that, Indianapolis, Minnesota and Tampa Bay are set under center, with Cleveland having the next choice at No. 37.

In the end, it is hard to image Weeden being taken in the top 36 selections, making the OVER the right wager.