NBA Playoffs 2012: Predicting Which Playoff Underdogs Will Shock the World

The regular season now has less than one week remaining, and the playoff picture is starting to take shape. There are still some question marks, but a large part of the picture is set. 

In the Eastern Conference, another win by Chicago or loss by Miami would lock the first five seeds down. Orlando needs just one more win to lock down the sixth seed, and even sans Dwight Howard they should be able to beat Charlotte. 

Technically, Orlando could move ahead of Atlanta as well if they win out and the Hawks lose out. With games against the Knicks, Clippers and Mavericks left, that's not impossible, even if all three are at home. It is unlikely, Orlando winning out without Howard is unlikely, too, particularly with road trips against Denver and Memphis on the schedule.  

The only real question is in regards to Philadelphia and New York. While New York has been much better since the break, they have two of their three remaining games against winning teams (hosting Atlanta and visiting the Clippers). Meanwhile, the 76ers' toughest remaining opponent is the 30-33 Milwaukee Bucks.

The Western Conference is a little more complicated. While the top two seeds are going to Oklahoma City and San Antonio, it's anyone's guess which team wins it. The real wrench in these particular works is Gregg Popovich. 

With only one winning team left on the schedule, the Spurs should be able to win out, but you never when Popovich will rest his starters. If they rest them against the Suns, they could lose that game. 

On the other side of the coin, the Thunder have three games remaining, one of them being in Los Angeles today against the Lakers. My guess is that if Pops feels he has a one-game cushion, he'll rest the starters.

However, he's already been resting them here and there, and may just rest them against Golden State, the final game of the season, if they've already got the top seed locked up. 

The Spurs own both the tiebreaker and the easier schedule on top of the actual lead. Expect them to come up with the top overall seed. 

The next grouping is for the Nos. 3, 4 and 5 seeds with the two Los Angeles teams and the Memphis Grizzlies competing for it. While one of the Los Angeles teams will win the Pacific division and thereby assure themselves of a home court advantage, the other could end up with the fifth seed. 

That is, however, unlikely as the Grizzlies are one down in the loss column and would need the Lakers to lose their last two and the Clippers to drop two of three. Therefore, they aren't likely to move past either team. 

The race between the Clippers and Lakers is still very much alive. The teams are tied in the loss column though the the Lakers win the tiebreaker. That means the Lakers have to lose one more game with one fewer remaining. 

They have the hardest remaining game, hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. 

Then there is the race for the sixth seed, which Denver currently occupies, albeit tenuously. The Nuggets "lead" is based on percentage points, not the tiebreaker. Dallas, by virtue of having won the season series three games to one, own that. 

The Mavericks have just one game remaining, closing the season on Thursday in Atlanta. Denver has three left, including Wednesday in Oklahoma City. If the Nuggets lose that game, Dallas will just need to win in Atlanta to clinch the sixth seed. 

That would drop Denver to the seventh, leaving just the final seed in the Western Conference to complete the playoff picture. 

Three teams, Houston, Phoenix and Utah are in contention for that spot. Houston, while mathematically still in it, is going to need a perfect storm to get in, which more or less leaves it between Utah and Phoenix. Utah hosts, the Suns tonight. If they win that game they clinch a playoff spot. 

However, if Phoenix wins, then they would move into position to take the last spot, though if they lose Wednesday to the Spurs and the Jazz win, then Utah would still win the spot. 

Lastly, there is a remote chance that the Jazz could pass the Nuggets if the Jazz win out and the Nuggets drop two of three, or if the Nuggets drop all three and the Jazz beat Phoenix. 

Based on all of the above, here are are three potential series that could have a shocking upset, either in the first round or the second round of the playoffs. There's also one that will be shockingly easily for the favorite. 

New York Knicks

Most people agree that the Knicks are the team that everyone wants to avoid headed into the playoffs. While it's a coin toss as to which team they play, they're going to "shock the world" by offering shockingly little resistance to either. 

The Knicks are a collective 1-6 against the two teams this season, with the one win requiring two miracle threes at the last second.

They are also a poor match against either team, albeit for very different reasons. Against the Bulls, they are undersized, and have been out-rebounded by 12 rebounds (38.8 to 50.8) per game during their four meetings. 

Additionally, they rely on three-point shooting to win, and they are just .268 from deep against the Bulls this year. Chicago is the fourth best team at guarding the three. 

Against the Heat they are overmatched. They depend on their top-tier stars and their "big three" to win, but they are a far cry short of the Heat when it comes to superstar talent. 

The Knicks aren't going to shock the world by winning, but by not really offering much resistance. Regardless of which team they face, they won't win more than one game in the postseason. 

Memphis Grizzlies

Them Memphis Grizzlies are headed for a likely first round series against the Clippers, in a contest that could be the most entertaining and closest contested of the first-round series. It wouldn't be a shock to anyone if they won that. 

It might be a shock to see them go all the way to the NBA Finals, though, and that's a distinct possibility. They're playing as well as anyone in the league right now, winning 14 of their last 18.

They have wins against the Lakers, Clippers, Thunder and Heat over that stretch as well, so they aren't just beating up on cupcakes. 

What makes Memphis interesting is they're versatility. They have above-average talent at every spot. They have a bona fide scorer off the bench in O.J. Mayo. They have a frontcourt tandem in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol that can compete with anyone. 

They aren't "great" anywhere, but they are solid everywhere, which means they don't have any soft underbelly to be exploited. On the other hand, they can adapt and find what another team's might be. 

There is no team that the Grizzlies can't bet in a series. That doesn't mean that they'd be favored or should be favored in any series. It just means that they could contend with anyone, and because of that they're a great long-shot candidate to win it all. 

Atlanta Hawks

The Boston Celtics have been on a late-season run that has a lot of people buzzing. They've been doing that by playing small-ball, and that's going to present them a problem if they face the Atlanta Hawks, which they are likely to do in the opening round.

Atlanta has been succeeding playing small-ball, too, although they've been doing it longer. The two teams have played three very competitive games this season, all since the All-Star break and Boston's run. In those games, the Celtics have a 2-1 edge, but the combined scores are exactly the same. 

Beyond that, Atlanta has been turning things up lately, too, and won the last time the teams faced off. 

Both teams have won seven of their last 10. 

It seems everyone is ready to put Boston into the second round, and they may very well get there, but expect for the Hawks to give them a far better contest than is being projected.

This could easily go to seven games, and it's a good chance that it's Atlanta that ends up coming out the winner. 

Indiana Pacers

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most disrespected No. 3 seeds I've ever seen. You would think that they will offer as much resistance as warm butter in the second round the way that people discuss them. 

In fact, the Miami Heat are routinely thought to have the edge in the playoff seeding over the top seeded Bulls because while the Bulls will have to face the Boston Celtics in the second round, the Heat "get" the Pacers. 

This isn't to disrespect the Celtics, but respecting the Pacers isn't disrespecting the Celtics. There's a reason that the league's fifth best record belongs to Indiana. They also match up well against the Heat. 

They are the second best team at getting to the line. They have the fifth best offensive rebounding percentage. They keep teams out of the paint, giving up the fifth fewest field goals inside. 

They aren't a great team, and they aren't an elite team, but they are a very good team, and as such they're going to be a tough out. Miami should beat them, but in a series that will be far more contested than expected.