2012 NFL Mock Draft: Highlighting Biggest Potential Busts of Round One

The one thing NFL general managers try to avoid is making the wrong decision on draft day. Every year several players taken in the first round end up becoming big-time busts. 

Here is a look at which first-round talents will end up going bust in my latest 2012 mock draft.

1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

Luck has to be the pick for Indianapolis. The Colts have a major rebuilding project on their hands, but things will be made easier by the selection of the best quarterback prospect to enter the NFL in more than a decade.

2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis Rams): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

The Redskins made a big move to get this pick specifically to land Griffin. They'll be happy with that decision in a short time. He will be a fantastic representative for the franchise on and off the field. 

3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC

There are trade rumors surrounding this pick, but the Vikings should stay put and draft Kalil. He is quite simply the best offensive lineman to enter the NFL since Miami took Jake Long with the No. 1 overall pick in 2008.

4. Cleveland Browns: Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

The Browns have to surround Colt McCoy with more weapons on offense if he is going to have any chance at success. Drafting Richardson will be a good start to that process.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

The Bucs grabbed Eric Wright in free agency but that won't be enough to improve their secondary. Ronde Barber is entering his 16th season and Aqib Talib's future is in doubt. Claiborne is the best cover man in the draft and should develop into a legitimate shutdown corner. 

6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

The Rams fill their need for a receiver here with Blackmon, who will finally give Sam Bradford the No. 1 target he's been longing for.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB, South Carolina

I liked Ingram as a college player and he is a versatile defender who was a big-time playmaker at South Carolina. He has a great motor and seems to be willing to do whatever it takes to win. I just think he's too much of a 'tweener to find a true position in the NFL.

At 6'1" and 264 pounds, Ingram is undersized for a 4-3 defensive end, and I don't think he has the overall quickness to play linebacker in a 3-4. With the Jags he'd be a defensive end in their 4-3.

Ingram's frame is not that of an elite pass-rusher. he has a short, squat body with short arms and small hands. Those are not the qualities teams look for in guys who hold the edge in the NFL.

I like Ingram as a player and he seems like a good kid so maybe he can fight through his physical limitations, but at this point I just don't see it happening. 

8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Tannehill aced his pro day and if he's here the Dolphins need to take him, but his lack of experience really scares me.

The Texas A&M product's ceiling is very high, and it will help that he will have his college coach, Mike Sherman, as his offensive coordinator in the pros. That said, Tannehill has the tools to be an elite quarterback but hasn't shown the ability to reach that level yet.

He made just 19 starts at quarterback in college and during his final season he threw 29 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. That ratio is average at best.

Is he sure to go bust? No, but he certainly has the potential to be a monumental mistake for the Dolphins this high.

9. Carolina Panthers: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

Carolina needs a beast for the middle of its defensive line and they get it here with Poe. He's 6'4" and 346 pounds and the ridiculous strength, speed and athleticism he showed at the combine will serve him well in the NFL.

10. Buffalo Bills: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

The Bills could opt for Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd here, but their biggest need is along the offensive line and Reiff is the draft's second-best tackle. 

11. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College

Kansas City is hoping Poe falls here but he won't and they'll grab Kuechly, who will be a significant upgrade at one of the team's middle linebacker spots. 

12. Seattle Seahawks: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

 If Coples is available here the Seahawks almost have to take him. He is by far the most talented 4-3 pass-rusher in this draft and if he develops and learns to use his immense talent to its fullest extent, he could be a force defensively.

The problem is that Coples has never shown that he is, in fact, and elite football player. At 6'6" and 285 pounds and possessing every physical gift you could possibly want in a defensive end, Coples should have dominated college football. He didn't.

During his final year at North Carolina he had just 7.5 sacks and on tape he rarely played through the whistle or displayed an adequate motor to fit his talent level. I question whether or not Coples even really loves football.

Of all the high first-round talents, Coples is the most likely to go bust.

13. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Levi Brown has been re-signed by the Cardinals, but that isn't going to help things along the offensive line. Martin has a high ceiling and can play on either side of the offensive line if needed. He should turn out to be a good one.

14. Dallas Cowboys: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

The Cowboys would like Poe, but Cox is a nice consolation prize. He is a versatile athlete who could like up in any spot along Rob Ryan's three-man defensive line.

15. Philadelphia Eagles: Mark Barron, S, Alabama

DeMeco Ryans will help upgrade the middle of Philadelphia's defense, but adding the versatile Barron will do even more.

16. New York Jets: Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabama

The Jets need to land a pass-rusher here and Upshaw is the kind of tough, rugged player Rex Ryan loves. He'll have no problem switching to outside linebacker in a 3-4.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland Raiders): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

Cornerback is the Bengals' top need as they have yet to replace Johnathan Joseph, who left for the Houston Texans last offseason. Gilmore will give them a big, physical corner with elite ball skills. 

18. San Diego Chargers: David DeCastro, G, Stanford

This is a perfect fit as DeCastro can step in and replace the retired Kris Dielman right away.

19. Chicago Bears: Cordy Glenn, OT/G, Georgia

The Bears need help along the offensive line and Glenn will give them a versatile talent who could start at either guard spot or right tackle immediately.

20. Tennessee Titans: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

The Titans lost Cortland Finnegan in free agency and they will replace him by adding Kirkpatrick. The Alabama cornerback is an elite talent whose stock has dropped thanks to an arrest for marijuana possession.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is not a complete running back so the Bengals need to find someone to complement him. Miller is the draft's biggest home-run threat and has the highest ceiling of all the running backs in the class other than Trent Richardson.

22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Experts have Floyd rising quickly, and while I think he was an outstanding college receiver I have a hard time seeing him being an elite pass-catcher in the NFL. He has huge hands and does a nice job securing balls thrown his way, but I don't see how he'll get separation against NFL-level cover men.

Floyd dropped some weight and played a little quicker during his final season at Notre Dame, but he did most of his damage against weak competition. Rarely did he step up and dominate in the big game for the Irish. 

He doesn't get much separation and rounds off a lot of his routes, relying far too much on his size to make the difference on 50-50 balls. In the NFL, that's not the way to do things.

At 6'3" and 220 pounds, Floyd is an intriguing prospect because of his hands, but I don't like his overall makeup. He quit on too many plays in college for me to fall in love with him.

Put him in my "potential bust" category.

23. Detroit Lions: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin

The Lions currently start Dominic Raiola at center, but he's terrible and they need an upgrade there. Konz is a stud whose ability to read defenses will help quarterback Matthew Stafford tremendously.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devon Still, DT, Penn State

The Steelers have other needs but they won't pass up the opportunity to grab Still, who is a monster on film. Nose tackle Casey Hampton is aging and Still could eventually move in to replace him.

25. Denver Broncos: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

Denver needs to get better up front defensively and at 6'5" and 323 pounds, Brockers is the kind of massive defensive tackle who could be a difference maker immediately.

26. Houston Texans: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

Andre Johnson is one of the NFL's best receivers, but he needs help. The Texans will get Wright here, a legitimate No. 2 receiver who profiles as a big-time playmaker.

27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints): Chandler Jones, DE/OLB, Syracuse

The Patriots need to upgrade their front seven and drafting the raw, but extremely talented Jones is a start. Bill Belichick will mold the Syracuse product into a great edge-rusher. 

28. Green Bay Packers: Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC

Green Bay will take an edge-rusher here to help Clay Matthews, and in this projection it gets lucky and lands Perry, the best pure pass-rusher in the draft.

29. Baltimore Ravens: Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama 

The Ravens have other needs but they will get the opportunity to draft Ray Lewis' eventual successor in Hightower and they will take it. The Alabama product is versatile enough to help out in a number of ways before eventually taking over for Lewis.

30. San Francisco 49ers: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

At 6'4" and 215 pounds and possession elite speed, it's no wonder Hill has raced up draft boards, but the receiver is incredibly raw and only had 49 career catches in three seasons at Georgia Tech.

I just would not feel comfortable taking a guy who has so much growing to do. Yes, the skills are there for him to be an elite deep threat, but he has never shown the consistent ability to make catches in tough situations.

On top of that, his route-running skills are terrible and he played in an option system at Georgia Tech, so who knows if he can switch to a West Coast system like the 49ers run.

San Francisco is desperate to land a deep threat, but Hill has bust written all over him.

31. New England Patriots: Kendall Reyes, DT, Connecticut

Reyes is another solid addition to New England's front seven. He is a scheme-versatile defensive lineman who could slide in anywhere up front in the team's 3/4-4/3 hybrid defense.

32. New York Giants: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

The Giants have plenty of other needs, but Fleener has blown people away throughout the draft process. After acquiring Keith Rivers from the Bengals, they won't need to go linebacker here and can go with a value pick. Fleener is a playmaking tight end who is big, strong and athletic.