Offense Is Biggest Question for Atlanta Falcons in 2012

While the Atlanta Falcons can expect a much-improved defense with the addition of Mike Nolan as new defensive coordinator, fans are a little more wary when it comes to the offensive side of the ball.

When Atlanta announced in January the hiring of Dirk Koetter as the team's new offensive coordinator, Falcons Nation didn't exactly react with leaps of joy.

Many were left shocked and puzzled by the move, and understandably so.

The Falcons passed on the likes of Brian Schottenheimer, Tom Clements and Brian Billick to hire Koetter, who heads to Atlanta after leading a Jaguars offense that ranked dead last in the league in total offense and passing yards last season. The team's 15.2 points per game ranked 29^th in the league.

Not exactly reason for optimism.

Koetter has had trouble finding success since he led the Jaguars to one of the best offenses in the NFL in 2007, his first season with the team. Jacksonville fell to the middle of the pack in offensive rankings for the next three years before hitting rock bottom in just about every category but rushing in 2011.

Unfortunately, the rest of Koetter's track record doesn't provide much reason for optimism, either.

Before his time with the Jaguars, Koetter was the head coach at Boise State for three seasons until moving to Arizona State in 2001, winning four of six total bowl appearances. But it's not like he was taking the league by storm: Koetter was a combined 66-44 as a college coach, including 1-11 against top 10 teams and 2-19 against ranked teams. Far from spectacular.

Some might point to poor recruiting as the reason for Koetter's rather lackluster college record, and similarly argue that he didn't have much to work with in Jacksonville outside of Pro Bowl selections tight end Marcedes Lewis and running back Maurice Jones-Drew, the latter of which led the league in rushing last year with 1,606 yards.

However, history suggests good coaches are able to be successful regardless of their team's level of talent. The most obvious example of the past decade would no doubt be New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, who continues to dominate the NFL (three Super Bowl wins in five appearances) despite plugging in mostly no-name receivers and below-average running backs year after year.

One could argue New England’s consistent success is all due to quarterback Tom Brady. However, don't forget the Patriots finished the 2008 season with an 11-5 record and narrowly missed the playoffs with backup QB Matt Cassel at the helm.

Granted, Koetter has probably never had the chance to work with such talent as the one found on the Falcons' roster. After all, when was the last time he had the opportunity to take over an offense composed of such stars as quarterback Matt Ryan, tight end Tony Gonzalez, running back Michael Turner and wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones?

But while hopes are high that Koetter’s planned vertical attack will be successful in 2012, there’s no question the Falcons are taking a big risk by giving him the reigns to the offense this year.

A risk which may put Falcons head coach Mike Smith, with his 0-3 postseason record, in danger of losing his job if the season fails to meet team owner Arthur Blank's expectations.