NBA Draft 2012: 10 Guaranteed Busts

The NBA Draft is a crapshoot.

For every Dwyane Wade and LeBron James, there is a Darko Milicic and Mike Sweetney.

First-round picks have a lot of hype to live up to. Some reach or even succeed the hype.

Others burn out in infamy and become household names because of it—Sam Bowie, Michael Olowokandi, Kwame Brown.

There will be some of them in this year’s draft. These are the projected first-round picks you don’t want to see holding up your team’s jersey on June 28.

Thomas Robinson, PF, Kansas

Thomas Robinson works hard, is a strong guy and had a great junior year.

But that came after spending the majority of two years on the bench behind talented Jayhawk posts. Robinson is a work-in-progress and should use his senior season as an opportunity to improve himself even more.

He will be drafted high because of his room for potential, but that is a risky move. It is better to polish your craft in college and be more of a sure thing once you hit the pros.

Another year in Kansas would serve him well. Instead, his confidence will suffer a hit as he gets outplayed next season.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Kentucky

After watching the 2012 title game, it is easy to see that Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has heart, desire and a ton of athleticism.

If he decides to go pro, he will be one of the top five players selected. He will become a rotation player in the NBA and may have some breakout games here and there, but he will not become the star player many expect him to.

He needs to improve his shooting from the perimeter because he will not be able to blow past the athletic small forwards of the NBA, nor will he be able to bulldoze through them like he did at Kentucky.

Bradley Beal, SG, Florida

With a body better suited for a point guard, Bradley Beal will face an uphill road in the NBA.

Like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal has not officially declared for the draft yet, although many experts have him pegged as a first-round pick in 2012.

Beal is a good shooter, but at 6’3” will have trouble shooting over longer guards.

With his lack of size, he needs to be better at creating off the dribble. He will have to rely on his teammates to set screens and get him open looks because Beal is lackluster when it comes to creating his own shot.

Playing in Florida’s three-point-popping system worked to his benefit. The Orlando Magic might be a good fit for Beal, but elsewhere he will have a tough time developing into a top-tier NBA guard.

Austin Rivers, SG, Duke

Austin Rivers is a lot like Stephen Curry.

Both have fathers who played in the NBA. Both entered the draft bearing the dreaded tweener label. And both can shoot lights out.

The difference is Curry groomed himself with three years of college. Rivers is leaving after his freshman year.

He hit one of the biggest shots of the season by nailing a game-winner of North Carolina. That one shot and his surname will likely propel him into the lottery.

However, his overall body of work is not incredibly impressive.

He needs to improve a bunch on defense. He also must become a better distributor, as it is likely he will see some time at point guard in the NBA.

Right now he has a tendency to take too many bad shots.

Tyler Zeller, PF/C, North Carolina

Because he is a 7-footer who can run the floor, Tyler Zeller will draw attention from most NBA teams.

But he is not a prototypical center.

He lacks strength to bang with the big bodies down low in the NBA. It will be too much of a chore for him to try defending stronger players on a nightly basis.

He may be able to get some runouts for easy buckets on the offensive end, but Zeller will need to add a lot of muscle in order to become an effective everyday player.

Moe Harkless, SF, St. John’s

Moe Harkless may have given the worst reason ever for entering the NBA Draft early—avoiding answering questions.

While he will no longer have to answer questions about when he is leaving, he will now have to answer a more difficult question: How does he plan to succeed in the NBA with a toothpick-thin frame?

His body type is comparable to that of Nicolas Batum, but Harkless is nowhere near as good a shooter.

He averaged just more than a point per shot as a freshman and made only 20 percent of his threes.

Another year—or three—at St. John’s to bulk up and improve his shooting would have been in Harkless’ best interest.

Doron Lamb, SG, Kentucky

The best shooter on the best team in the country is another one of those players caught between two positions.

Doron Lamb is a terrific shooter. If he decides to turn pro in 2012, he must hope he is drafted to a team that needs only a knockdown shooter. Then he will have a chance to succeed in the Kyle Korver mold.

But at 6’4,” 210 pounds, his body type is better suited to point guard in the NBA.

Due to his lack of size, Lamb will have a tough time defending shooting guards in the NBA.

Lamb will need to bulk up to prevent bigger guards backing him down and overpowering him in the post.

Terrence Ross, SG, Washington

This Washington swingman had a solid sophomore season and an even more impressive showing in the NIT.

The problem is that it was in a down Pac-12 season and the NIT.

So while Terrence Ross put up impressive numbers this season, it was not against top-notch competition.

Even against lackluster defenders, Ross did not show great ability to take his man off the dribble. He also needs to take a lot of shots to get his points.

He can heat up from deep, but at times he also falls in love with the three-point shot and abandons using his 6’7” frame to get to the basket.

Marquis Teague, PG, Kentucky

The third Wildcat on this list and the third who has yet to make an announcement, Marquis Teague is the one destined for the least amount of NBA success.

Running the point at Kentucky surrounded by spectacular athletes is one thing. Stepping up and becoming a floor general on a team competing 82 games a year against equal talent is another. Since he has not decided definitively yet, Teague can still return and elevate his draft stock for 2013.

But, once again, the experts have him going in the first round this year.

Teague can initiate offense and put the ball into the hands of playmakers at times, but once teams sag off of him, will he be able to knock down perimeter jumpers? At this point, no.

Tony Wroten, PG/SG, Washington

Tony Wroten is a freshman who let the wrong people get into his head.

There are some things to like about Wroten’s game, but plenty more to be concerned with.

The biggest concern is his lack of respect for the ball. He averaged 3.8 turnovers per game as a freshman. Conversely, he average 3.7 assists per game. Anyone handling the ball in the backcourt must put up more assists than turnovers.

Also of concern is a 6’5” guard who is as bad from the perimeter as Wroten. Wroten shot just 16 percent on threes as a freshman. He can score the ball well from inside the three-point line, but he is another case of a player jumping to the NBA before he is ready.