NFL Trade Speculation: 5 Moves That Could Radically Shake Up the Draft

With the bulk of free agency heavy-hitting in the rear-view mirror, NFL teams will now recenter their focus on the upcoming draft, set to begin on April 26th.

Although little doubt remains over who will be the top two players selected, the draft picture will grow a little foggier once Minnesota is on the clock at pick three.

One thing we can all count on is a bevy of draft trades—a regularity during the annual selection process—throughout each of the seven rounds.

Unlike most years previous, we've already witnessed a major draft trade at the top of the order, as Washington moved swiftly to acquire the second overall pick from St. Louis in exchange for the sixth pick and a package that includes two extra future first-rounders and a second-rounder in 2012.

And while it's unlikely we'll see any more trades that rival that one in terms of the compensation involved (the draft capital St. Louis acquired was simply monumental), invariably a number of deals will go down that radically shake up both the first round and the balance of the draft.

Here's a look at five potential trades that would accomplish exactly that.

1. Miami Moves Up to Pick 3

Parameters:

Miami Trades: A first-round pick in 2012 (No. 8), a second-round pick in 2012 (No. 42) and a second-round pick in 2013 (pick TBD).

Minnesota Trades: A first-round pick in 2012 (No. 3) and a sixth-round pick in 2013 (pick TBD).

Why Miami Does It:

After striking out in free agency in its attempt to acquire a viable veteran starting quarterback (sorry, David Garrard isn't any better than Matt Moore), Miami understands that its only remaining option to find a new starter for 2012 is to package picks to move up for Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

The team is seemingly enamored by the 23-year-old and understands now isn't the time to wait patiently for him to fall in its lap.  Moving up to No. 3 is further mandated by Cleveland's need for an upgrade at the quarterback position, and the likelihood that they too would select Tannehill if available at pick four.

And if Miami's need for a quarterback and Tannehill's skill set wasn't reason enough for a marriage between the two, his former college head coach, Mike Sherman, is now the offensive coordinator for Joe Philbin in Miami. 

Often times, the first hurdle to climb for a rookie quarterback is learning a new offensive system.  Such wouldn't be the case for Tannehill in Miami, as he would have both experience and familiarity on his side.

Finally, Miami GM Jeff Ireland is staring down the prospect of being fired without an improved season in 2012, and he's wise enough to know that the NFL is a quarterback driven league.  And while hitching your wagon to a rookie quarterback is an inherent risk, if Tannehill displays the promise to be the long-term answer in Miami, Ireland could buy himself at least another year on the job.

Why Minnesota Does It:

The Vikings are in a really good spot for a team that won just three games in 2011, as it's a virtual certainty that if they stand pat in the order that coveted left tackle prospect Matt Kalil will slide right into their fortunes.  Left tackle is both a premium position and an area of need for Minnesota, so taking him with the third pick makes plenty of sense.

That being said, the roster has enough holes to justify trading back to acquire more picks, and GM Rick Spielman recently acknowledged the possibility of shopping the third selection.  The Vikings could then use the additional picks in both this year's draft and next year's to beef up a roster short on talent. 

An alternative possibility is Minnesota using the additional capital acquired from Miami to move back up in the draft to select Kalil, as it's unlikely he'd remain on the board until pick 8.  Essentially, this scenario would land the Vikings the prospect that offers them the most value, while adding draft picks and paying Kalil slightly less money on his rookie deal.

*For those Redskins fans crying foul over the notion that Miami could move up more spots (five versus four) at a far reduced price, consider the circumstances: The gap between Tannehill and Robert Griffin III is a wide one in the eyes of most personnel evaluators.  The discrepancy in the prices paid to acquire them will undoubtedly be too.

2. St. Louis and Cleveland Make a Deal, Finally

Parameters:

St. Louis Trades: A first-round pick in 2012 (No. 6), a third-round pick in 2012 (No. 65) and a seventh-round pick in 2012 (No. 209).

Cleveland Trades: A first-round pick in 2012 (No. 4).

Why St. Louis Does It:

The Rams secured major draft flexibility in its trade with Washington, as they added three high draft choices while remaining in the top six of this year's draft.  That second part is particularly important, as many believe there are six elite prospects in this year's draft, followed by a field that rates a rung below. 

Those six prospects include Justin Blackmon, the decorated wide receiver from Oklahoma State that could provide Rams quarterback Sam Bradford with a ready-made target for 2012 with the potential to be a top-flight receiver in the NFL.  Problem is, the chances of him falling past Cleveland at pick four—especially if Tannehill is already off the board—are minimal. 

St. Louis and Cleveland nearly consummated a deal for the second pick before Washington swooped in with its offer, and the teams appear once again interested in talking shop about a trade.  The Rams have the ammo to make a deal, and no player fits their team needs more than Blackmon. 

In order for Bradford to avoid another regression in year three on the job, he needs talented pieces around him.  Safe to say Blackmon is just that.

Why Cleveland Does It:

Keep in mind, this trade operates under the assumption that Tannehill will be a Dolphin.  With him off the board, Cleveland finds itself in a position to address any number of positions on their roster.

Back to the "elite six" idea (the full list, by the way, is Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Matt Kalil, Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne and Blackmon): Cleveland could justify picking any of those six players, save Kalil.  Knowing that, it's sensible for Cleveland to move back to pick six and take the player that they covet more between Claiborne and Richardson, while also picking up a pair of extra draft picks.

Unlike Ireland in Miami, Cleveland GM Tom Heckert has patience on his side.  If the answer to their quarterback quandary doesn't settle itself in this year's draft, the team can look elsewhere with its top pick and address that need a year from now (Matt Barkley, anyone?).

Make note of the price paid by St. Louis to move up just two spots.  This year, more than ever, teams will be forced to pony up the big draft bucks as franchises further value building through the draft, given the sustained success of teams like the Giants, Steelers, Packers and Patriots—who have each architected their team with a focus on drafting franchise cornerstones and supplementing the roster via free agency.

3. Cowboys and Bengals Swap First-Rounders

Parameters:

Cincinnati Trades: A first-round pick in 2012 (No. 21), a fourth-round pick in 2012 (No. 116) and a fourth-round pick in 2013 (pick TBD).

Dallas Trades: A first-round pick in 2012 (No. 14) and a sixth-round pick in 2012 (No. 186).

Why Cincinnati Does It:

The Bengals set themselves up for the future when they shrewdly picked Andy Dalton in the second round of the 2011 draft, which followed drafting receiver A.J. Green with the fourth overall selection. 

They doubled up their fortunes by essentially stealing a first-round pick in 2012 and a second-round pick in 2013 from the Raiders in exchange for the quasi-retired Carson Palmer.

Now they're in a position to move up in the draft to land one of the players they reportedly covet, and that is Alabama linebacker Courtney Upshaw.  Upshaw is the kind of player that will adapt to whatever scheme he plays in, with the up-field rushing ability to play on the edge in a 4-3 and the movement skills to play in space as a 3-4 outside linebacker. 

The Bengals were fifth-best in the NFL with 45 sacks in 2011, but lost defensive end Jonathan Fanene (their top perimeter rusher) to New England in free agency.  Upshaw could fill his role immediately.

Why Dallas Does It:

Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has already admitted that moving out of the 14th pick is a possibility, and a downward move to stockpile picks seems likely. 

Dallas has a handful of needs, particularly on the defensive side of the football, and moving down to 21 would keep them in the mix for one of the top cornerbacks on the board, including Alabama's Dre Kirkpatrick and, perhaps, South Carolina's Stephon Gilmore.

The extra fourth-round pick this year allows Dallas the chance to take a risk on a high-reward draft faller whose off-field concerns cause his plummet (similar to what New England did in taking Aaron Hernandez in the fourth round in 2010).

4. New England Climbs the Draft Ladder

Parameters:

New England Trades: Two first-round picks in 2012 (No. 27 and No. 31).

Seattle Trades: A first-round pick in 2012 (No. 12), a fifth-round pick in 2013 (pick TBD) and a seventh-round pick in 2012 (No. 225).

Why New England Does It:

If you choose to use the past as a predictor for the future, then it's hard to imagine this trade coming to fruition.

But, Bill Belichick has always and will always operate under the premise that he wants to do what's in the best interest of the team, and as the window of Tom Brady's effectiveness begins to close (note: ever so slightly), Belichick will consider adding impact pieces to contribute now, rather than drafting players to develop.

So, what will they do with the 12th pick?  How about adding the best player available at a position the team is in desperate need of help at? As in Mark Barron, the former Alabama safety.

Barron had double hernia surgery after winning a national championship at Alabama in 2011, but he's a polished run and pass defender with the smarts to pick up Bill Belichick's schemes.  After all, he played for Belichick's close friend and longtime assistant Nick Saban (don't discount the importance of this factor, either). 

The team needs more than just one piece to shore up a secondary that was historically poor in 2011, but rather than picking from the leftovers in the back end of the first round, New England would get its hands on the undisputed top safety in this class.

Why Seattle Does It:

The Seahawks have a long-term need at inside linebacker, despite the fact that they just added Barrett Ruud in free agency.  There's one inside backer available in this year's draft that is worthy of a selection in the top half of the first round, and that's Boston College's Luke Kuechly. 

Unfortunately for Seattle, he's almost sure to be gone with one of the three picks that precede them at 12, as Carolina (No. 9), Buffalo (No. 10) and Kansas City (No. 11) all share the need for an upgrade at that position. 

The next-best middle linebacker prospect is Alabama's Dont'a Hightower, but he projects to be picked much closer to 27 than 12, making the decision for Seattle to move down and re-target the position an enticing one.  (Seattle is reportedly infatuated with Hightower, as it turns out.)

Moreover, with the Ruud signing, Seattle has an option to hold the fort inside should the team strike out on finding its guy in this year's draft.  Seattle isn't far from contention, and adding a pair of first-round players (perhaps one on the offensive line) could help narrow the gap between them and San Francisco in the NFC West.

5. Lions and Cardinals Do Business

Parameters:

Detroit Trades: A first-round pick in 2012 (No. 23), a third-round pick in 2012 (No. 85) and a seventh-round pick in 2012 (No. 230).

Arizona Trades: A first-round pick in 2012 (No. 13) and a seventh-round pick in 2012 (No. 221).

Why Detroit Does It:

Yes, the Lions have Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril (presuming he either signs his franchise tender or agrees to a long-term extension) in the mix at defensive end for 2012, but the team is conscious of Vanden Bosch's age and the importance of a pair of pass-rushers in Gunther Cunningham's pressure-oriented defense.

That will prompt Detroit to pay up for a chance to grab Quinton Coples, the pass-rusher many believe to have the highest upside in this draft. 

Coples finished 2011, his junior season, with 7.5 sacks, and at 6'6" and 285 pounds, he has the physical skills to be an elite rusher at the next level.  The defensive scheme he'd play in with Detroit would suit his abilities to a T and help the Lions transition on from Vanden Bosch, who has two years remaining on his current contract but is already 34.

Why Arizona Does It:

The Cardinals have no shortage of needs, but chief amongst them is an upgrade along the offensive line.  It's rare for a guard to warrant a pick as high as 13, but David DeCastro from Stanford is the exception to that belief.  In fact, he's so good that he wont' likely be available for the taking, meaning the Cardinals will seek a trade partner to move down, as no other line prospect fits at slot 13.

In moving down 10 spots, Arizona can pick up additional draft property while also setting itself up to select one of the offensive tackles who figures to be available at that time (Stanford's Jonathan Martin and Ohio State's Mike Adams are candidates). 

Unlike the rest of the trades mentioned, neither team involved in this transaction has been mentioned much regarding moving up or down in the draft order.  Alas, no event in sports is as unpredictable as the NFL draft, and we can safely assume that a general manager will be ready to pull the trigger on a trade that no one expects.

Perhaps Martin Mayhew in Detroit and Rod Graves in Arizona will be the ones to make it happen.