Fantasy Football 2012: A Look at the Rising and Falling RBs

Two Rising

DeMarco Murray

Murray looks to be the answer for the Cowboys at RB as he averaged an impressive 5.5 yards per carry, racking up 897 rushing yards in just 13 games (eight starts). An ankle injury shortened Murray’s season, but top-10 fantasy RB production is probable with Murray in 2012.

Felix Jones is still going to get some carries, but he’s less durable than Murray and shouldn’t be a threat to take away those all-important goal-line carries.

Chris Johnson

Johnson will probably never be the No. 1 overall fantasy scorer again (like he was in 2009), but he is much better than he showed last year while finishing as the 16th-ranked back. Johnson's contract distraction has been eliminated with the signing of a four-year, $53.5 million extension last September. Johnson held out all of training camp and preseason in 2011 to get that deal.

There was speculation that Johnson was out of shape upon finally beginning activities with the Titans in 2011. Whether true or not, Johnson started the season slow. His production picked up in the second half, though, as he finished with 1,047 rushing yards. CJ2K might be a long shot for 2012, but CJ1.5K seems likely.

Two Falling

Michael Bush

Bush has been one of the top handcuff backs in fantasy and put up impressive numbers filling in for Darren McFadden in Oakland. Last year, he was the No. 11 scoring fantasy back. But that won’t happen again behind Matt Forte in Chicago. Forte has proven to be fairly durable in his career so far.

Bush could maintain his TD-level as a goal-line option (six to eight TDs), but he won’t get the carries or yards he did in Oakland.

Peyton Hillis

Hillis is on his way down after a so-so year with the Browns in 2011. His production fell well short of 2010, when he finished as the No. 4 fantasy back. He battled a hamstring injury and was reportedly upset about being unable to extend his contract prior to the season. He now joins a Chiefs team that features Jamaal Charles in the backfield. Charles should be fully recovered from his torn ACL sustained in Week 2 and able to take the majority of the carries for the Chiefs. Hillis drops significantly after being the 25th player selected (on average) in last season's fantasy drafts.

Two Stagnant

Matt Forte

Going into the offseason I was predicting big things for Forte, including that he would end up a top five fantasy back. However, the offseason acquisition of Bush to take over Marion Barber’s role means more of the same for Forte. He will likely be elite in every category for RBs except the most important one—TDs. Forte has two seasons of just four TDs in his four-year career.

Darren McFadden

The situation for McFadden remains the same, if he’s healthy, he’s one of the top backs in the league. But health has been as elusive to the Oakland back as he has been to opposing defenses. Just like last year, he’ll be a high-risk, high-reward pick. 

Of course, if you drafted him last year and traded him prior to Week 7 at his highest value (NFL rushing leader at the time), you’re a genius.