Two Weeks to National Signing Day and Who's the King of Recruiting?

Two weeks. That's all the time left between a choosing the right school or the wrong school for a high school football player.

College football fans, with no live games to watch for the next seven months (except for perhaps a televised spring game), have hit recruiting sites like Scout.com to check on their team's rankings and see if the school has landed the right fish to fill in their needs. Some of them need life preservers.

The current Scout.com rankings are as follows:

1. Ohio State
2. North Carolina
3. LSU
4. Texas
5. Oklahoma
6. USC
7. Georgia
8. Texas A&M
9. Penn State
10. Alabama
11. Florida
12. Michigan
13. Stanford
14. Miami
15. South Carolina
16. West Virginia
17. Mississippi State
18. UCLA
19. Florida State
20. Notre Dame

Surprised? There are a few up there. North Carolina at No. 2 is downright shocking, but then again, we all know Butch Davis could recruit Rush Limbaugh to join Moveon.org. Stanford, right on Michigan's tail, has to give the folks in Ann Arbor some real concerns because, well, it's Stanford.

And what's the deal with Mississippi State ahead of Notre Dame? Puzzled? Need an Excedrin? It's not with you think. Hang on before you decide to cancel your season tickets to Clemson's (ranked No. 35) and Wisconsin's (No. 50) games.

First off, remember that it's quality, not quantity, that matters, and these rankings, more often than not, reflect a huge number of oral commits at one school. Let's put it this way—North Carolina has 29 commits with an average rating of 3.21, while Clemson has 12 commits with an average 3.58. It looks like Clemson is getting higher ranked players, while UNC is just getting more players.

Also, remember that a school has a maximum of 25 scholarships to be doled out in one year, with a cap of 85 scholarshipped players total in one year. With that in mind, some teams may have a large number of scholarshipped players returning and thus not a lot of scholarships available to hand out, while others may have lost a lot of seniors or NFL defectors and need to plug a lot of holes.

So what about a team like North Carolina, who has 29 commits? Either some will not be given offers via fax on signing day, or some will become walk-ons. Or look somewhere else. What many don't understand is that being promised a scholarship and actually getting a scholarship are two different things.

Schools like contingency plans, and if their five-star quarterback decides to sign at another school at the last minute, they need to make sure they have quality backups coming in. And therein lies the problem for many schools. Just ask Steve Spurrier.

Spurrier was recently banned from recruiting out of Tucker High School in Georgia after he reneged on a scholarship offer to LB Jonathan Davis.

“When he [Davis] committed to South Carolina, he turned down scholarship opportunities to other schools," said Tucker coach Franklin Stephens. "And then those other schools moved on to fill that spot. What South Carolina did was wrong, and the timing of it, so close to signing day [Feb. 4], is worse. It’s just a bad deal.”

Indeed it is for Davis. But what goes around comes around. Schools routinely get the surprises of their lives on SLOID (Signed Letter of Intent Day)—a scholarship offer that isn't accepted after the recruit has given them an oral and no one to fill in the gap.

Rumors still abound that Urban Meyer recruited Jevan Snead as his quarterback, but that Snead heard Meyer was going after Tebow and was concerned after giving Meyer his oral commitment. Meyer reportedly told Snead he was recruiting Tebow as a linebacker. Snead ended up signing with Texas, then transferring to Ole Miss.

So back to North Carolina—will they retain their No. 2 status? I don't think so—look for Saban to make a strong push at the end, and end up taking North Carolina down.

So which schools are looking really good for SLOID, and which ones are looking good on paper only?

Michigan

Not really sold on this class. The Wolverines signed two three-star running backs, which is a little surprising for a school known for power running. Yes, they are now running the spread, but you still need a good back to make the offense balanced. They did land a four-star QB in Tate Forcier, but the ratio of 8-11 on offensive-defensive recruits is probably not what RR had in mind—the offense needs help now.

The Wolverines also look a little thin in the secondary, losing two this year, and two now-sophomores and two freshman in charge of anchoring the secondary. They did gain two commits, and perhaps the four new safety prospects can play at that position. But, still, some JUCO's might really add some experience to this group.

Ohio State

Sold on this class. This is well balanced, and really addresses the needs of the team. Tressel went after two running backs, some great corners, and solid linebackers, including a five-star Will (weak-side linebacker) in Dorian Bell. Overall, there's a reason why the Buckeyes are ranked No. 1.

Here's what's interesting about the Buckeyes' eligibility roster: They have 15 wide receivers (losing 4 this year), six TEs (losing three this year), 9 DEs etc, and they still recruited more for these positions. In fact, the Buckeyes have 109 players on their roster with 24 recruits, as seen here. Tressel is projected to lose 26 seniors, plus a few early NFL defectors, but, still, add in 24 recruits, and Tress will have around 107 players on his team. So over 20 are walk-ons? 

Oklahoma

Sold on this class, but I do have one concern. What's really tell-tale is how Stoops went after some big-time corners. The Sooners have been burned so many times on passes, this is an area that needs to be addressed, and he did that. Stoops also went after 10 linebackers, which will take care of the big gap after the 2009 season.

One area that is concerning is getting a three-star quarterback, instead of a four or five star. Their returning quarterback just won a Heisman, and a three-star is the best they can get? Sure, the ratings are sometimes off, but the Sooners should have been able to reel in a higher-rated quarterback.

USC

Sold on this class. Carroll landed the No. 1 player in the nation, QB Matt Barkley, as well as two other No. 1 (in their position) players, MLB Vontaze Burfict and C John Martinez. While the Trojans are still battling a few other schools (BYU, Notre Dame) for prize LB Manti Te'o, they don't have the big classes that some other teams ahead of them have.

USC has 18 commits/soft verbals, while the five other schools ahead of them have at least 20. But the Trojans do have the highest average star rating per player, at 3.94. USC needs to add to its offensive line, however. Having only one center (with a commit as a backup) and losing all three tackles next season is a scary situation to be in.

Florida

On the fence. Meyer went after the O-line, which, according to the depth charts, is an area that will be thin after 2010—they lose a projected eight linemen. The Gators will also be a bit thin in the linebacking corps, and they didn't really address that need, but still have some scholarships left to give out. In fact, 2010 could be a scary year for Gators fans—they will be losing at least 28 players, barring any unforeseen redshirts.

Interestingly, like Oklahoma, the Gators landed a three-star quarterback, Jordan Reed, who is ranked No. 42 amongst quarterbacks. His upside is he can run and pass the ball, but his downside is that the schools that were interested in him are not as impressive as you would expect—Maryland, Duke, Boston College?

LSU

Sold. Wow, LSU fans have to be very excited over this class. Miles landed the No. 3 back in the nation, Michael Ford, as well as two quarterbacks, one of whom is ranked second among all quarterbacks—Russell Shepard. This dual-threat quarterback had these schools on his interest list: USC, Florida, Michigan, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Texas. Now that's what I'm talking about!

Notre Dame

On the fence. No. 20 is not what Weis had in mind, but then again, there could be a reason for it—a few two and three-stars will take you down a notch, but uncertainty will really drop you. Rumors are surfacing that Notre Dame may hire Jon "Chucky" Gruden after Feb. 4 (SLOID), ensuring there is no chance the players can change their minds.

Throw in a new OC and running backs coach (Tony Alford), and you could have some uneasiness on a team that has made some improvement, but not a lot considering the softness of last year's schedule. Weis did land three All-American WRs to the class, so it looks like Clausen/Crist will have a lot of deer to throw to.