Big Ten Football: Which Team Has Easiest Path to Indianapolis in December?

Every Big Ten team has now started spring practices, and spring games and scrimmages will be happening throughout the month of April. Although springtime is still a bit early to jump into full team by team analysis, the end of college basketball season means those in-depth previews are right around the corner.

One important aspect of those previews is considering how a schedule can affect the top contenders in a conference race.  Especially in tough leagues like the SEC or the Big Ten, an unbalanced road schedule filled with other top contenders can derail even the best team from winning a conference championship.

So how did the schedule makers treat each of the contenders in the Legends and Leaders Divisions for 2012?  Now that's a question that can be answered before the spring drills are finished.

Starting with the non-conference schedule, the traditionally elite programs on the whole have the toughest marquee games to prepare them for the Big Ten schedule.  Philosophies differ on whether taking it easy and rolling up four wins of momentum or taking on massive challenges better prepare a team for the long grind of conference play.

While guaranteeing four wins certainly keeps a team in the national championship picture, I am a firm believer in the schedule up and challenge philosophy.  Teams that challenge themselves in September may learn from failures and struggles, which prepares the teams to handle the inevitable tough games in conference play.  Let's take a look at how the Legends Division non-conference schedules rank:

Legends Division Non-Conference Schedules (best to worst)

Michigan: Alabama (in Dallas), Air Force, Massachusetts, @ Notre Dame

Michigan State: Boise State, @ Central Michigan, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan

Northwestern: @ Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College, South Dakota

Nebraska: Southern Mississippi, @ UCLA, Arkansas State, Idaho State

Iowa: Northern Illinois (in Chicago), Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Central Michigan

Minnesota: @ UNLV, New Hampshire, Western Michigan, Syracuse

Two of the three favorites to win the division in 2012 are in the state of Michigan, but both teams will be tested toughly with undoubtedly the two strongest non-conference schedules in the entire conference.  Notre Dame is on the upswing, and the Wolverines have to head to South Bend for a night game.  Meanwhile, Alabama and Boise State will test how quickly Brady Hoke and Mark Dantonio can have teams ready for a season-opening showdown with another elite team.

As long as each of the Michigan teams manages three wins against those tough four game schedules, they will have a ton of confidence heading into Big Ten play.  Iowa and Minnesota do not have much to challenge them, but that may not matter as neither appears to be a serious threat to win the division while both teams reload. 

Northwestern gets a small edge in schedule difficulty over Nebraska because a road trip to Syracuse is actually tougher than heading to the Rose Bowl to take on the new regime Bruins, and Nebraska's schedule strength is all based on that opener against Southern Miss.  Northwestern showed that this slate is sufficiently difficult in 2011, and this year that stretch could put the Wildcats in position to pull a couple of upsets in Big Ten play.

Leaders Division Non-Conference Schedules (best to worst)

Penn State: Ohio, @ Virginia, Navy, Temple

Ohio State: Miami (OH), Central Florida, California, UAB

Purdue: Eastern Kentucky, @ Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan, Marshall

Illinois: Western Michigan, @ Arizona State, Charleston Southern, Louisiana Tech

Wisconsin: Northern Iowa, @ Oregon State, Utah State, UTEP

Indiana: Indiana State, @ Massachusetts, Ball State, @ Navy

It it quite possible that the toughest non-conference schedule in the Leaders Division would rank fifth in the Legends Division, as these schedules are ridiculously soft on the whole.  Surprisingly, the Nittany Lions face a slightly tougher schedule than usual and it is more than good enough to be the best. 

Ohio and Temple have consistently been two of the best MAC teams, and now Temple is a Big East team.  The road game at Virginia is also a nasty test, although not as bad as the Alabama game from the past two seasons.

Ohio State loses some points for not even heading outside Ohio Stadium a single time in early September.  Unlike last year, though, there are no Akron-level freebies in this set of home games.  Purdue and Illinois could also be tested in their sole road games, although the remainder of those non-conference slates are not difficult.

Wisconsin probably should not be faulted for scheduling Oregon State when the Beavers were a borderline elite Pac-12 program.  OSU has taken a turn for the worse and that kills another Wisconsin strength of schedule.  The lack of a challenge has not killed Wisconsin the past two seasons, but it is notable that they are the only top contender without a real test before September 29 when conference play opens in Lincoln.

So summarizing the non-conference play, Michigan and Michigan State will come into Big Ten play knowing the most about where they stand in the national picture.  Meanwhile, Nebraska, Penn State, Purdue, and Ohio State will be fully prepared for conference play by reasonable challenges in the non-conference.  Only Wisconsin will be untested and unproven heading into the last weekend of September, at least among the title contenders.

Looking at the 2011 conference race, the two factors that affected the conference race from a scheduling standpoint were road games and cross-division games.  These factors have long had a big impact on conference races, but the cross-division schedules are a relatively new factor to consider in the bigger Big Ten.  These schedules are the same as 2011, but just in reverse road/home, which adds some different nuances to what we saw last season.

Legends Division Key Conference Games

Iowa
Road Games - Michigan State, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue
Cross-Division - Penn State, Indiana, Purdue

Michigan
Road Games - Purdue, Nebraska, Minnesota, Ohio State
Cross-Division - Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State

Michigan State
Road Games - Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Cross-Division - Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin

Minnesota
Road Games - Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Nebraska
Cross-Division - Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois

Nebraska
Road Games - Ohio State, Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa
Cross-Division - Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State

Northwestern
Road Games - Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State
Cross-Division - Indiana, Penn State, Illinois

Last year, the Legends Division ended up with Michigan State on top with Michigan and Nebraska following closely behind.  Although Michigan State needs to replace Kirk Cousins and some important defensive starters, the Spartans will be right in the mix again with the Wolverines and the Cornhuskers.

Iowa and Northwestern each come into the 2012 season with more questions than answers in key offensive positions.  Iowa needs to find a running back that can stay on the field, avoiding injuries and academic issues.  Northwestern needs to find a quarterback after Dan Persa rode off into the sunset, and it is not entirely clear that Kain Colter is the answer.

Looking at the schedules, Nebraska will be facing the second year of the "welcome to the conference" brutal cross-division schedule.  Drawing the best three teams from the Leaders Division led to a loss last season and two narrow wins against the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions. 

Although the Cornhuskers will be more comfortable in year two of Big Ten play, this brutal schedule will not be productive to a Nebraska division title.  Expect at least one road loss and possibly another home loss to either Wisconsin or Penn State.

Michigan State also receives no favors by drawing the Buckeyes and Badgers again, but the road schedule is manageable with two probable free wins at Indiana and Minnesota.  If the Spartans can earn a split against Wisconsin and Michigan and sweep the home schedule, then only Michigan will be able to steal the division title, and only by going 7-1.

That will be difficult though, as Michigan has road games at Lincoln and Columbus to deal with.  Despite blowing both of these opponents away in 2011, both will be much better in 2012 and those venues are not easy to escape with wins.  At least the Wolverines draw an easier Leaders Division schedule than the other two top competitors.

Northwestern will struggle to compete with three tough road games, but look for Iowa to be a dark horse contender in 2012 thanks to a favorable schedule.  The only tough cross-division game is against Penn State, but that is at home where Iowa has dominated the Nittany Lions. 

Assuming the Hawkeyes can take care of Northwestern (not an easy assumption) and the Indiana schools on the road, then the road to a division title could go through Kinnick Stadium.

If the schedule has anything to do with the Legends Division race in 2012, then Michigan State and Iowa will have an inside track to Indianapolis.  That will be why many prognosticators will project the Spartans to make a return trip to the conference championship, despite perhaps needing to reload more than Michigan or Nebraska.

Leaders Division Key Conference Games

Illinois
Road Games - Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio State, Northwestern
Cross-Division - Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern

Indiana
Road Games - Northwestern, Illinois, Penn State, Purdue
Cross-Division - Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa

Ohio State
Road Games - Michigan State, Indiana, Penn State, Wisconsin
Cross-Division - Michigan State, Nebraska, Michigan

Penn State
Road Games - Illinois, Iowa, Purdue, Nebraska
Cross-Division - Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska

Purdue
Road Games - Ohio State, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois
Cross-Division - Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa

Wisconsin
Road Games - Nebraska, Purdue, Indiana, Penn State
Cross-Division - Nebraska, Michigan State, Minnesota

After the cushy non-conference schedules, most if not all of these teams should come in with no fewer than three wins, and most with a perfect 4-0 record. That will mean mere mediocrity will mean bowl eligibility for many of these teams, like Illinois a year ago.

The primary contenders for the division title are Wisconsin and Ohio State, although the Buckeyes will not be appearing in any post-season play thanks to NCAA sanctions.  That opens the door for Purdue and Penn State, which have enough talent to keep things interesting against Wisconsin. 

Illinois and Indiana have a long way to go under new coaching staffs, but the Ohio State sanctions keep even the Illini and Hoosiers in the loop.  For the purposes of this discussion, Illinois can be left out thanks to a tough road schedule including trips to Ann Arbor, Columbus, and Madison.  Indiana is just too far away from having a chance at the title during year two of the rebuilding project.

Ohio State draws all three of the top contenders from the Legends Division and has to head to Madison and Happy Valley.  The first year of the Urban Meyer era will likely head toward 7-5 or 8-4, like many first year head coaches before him, based on schedule difficulty alone.

Can Purdue or Penn State catch Wisconsin? While the Badgers pull two of the top three Legends Division teams in cross-division play, Purdue only plays Michigan and Penn State only plays Nebraska.  Plus, Wisconsin has to head to West Lafayette and Happy Valley this year, which could make a significant difference.

Penn State and Purdue each have only one very tough road game, as both play Iowa and Illinois on the road.  The difference between the two may be the fact that Purdue hosts Penn State this season.  West Lafayette is a dangerous place to play, as proven by Ohio State a season ago.  If the Boilermakers can find some level of higher consistency, a sweep of the home games could shock the conference and put Purdue in Indianapolis this December.

Wisconsin has the toughest slate of the contenders, but that might only keep the race interesting rather than a complete blowout.  With Ohio State out of the mix and Penn State reloading, the schedule leaves Purdue as the biggest threat to preventing a rematch of Wisconsin and Michigan State in 2012.

Get ready Indianapolis.  If the 2012 battle between Michigan State and Wisconsin is as interesting as last year, this will be another fun ride once December arrives.

So what do you think of the Big Ten schedules? Is there an angle missing here? I look forward to hearing from you in the comments.

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David Fitzgerald is a Big Ten Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.  He can be reached on Twitter @BuckeyeFitzy