UFC 146 Breakdown: Roy Nelson vs. Antonio Silva

Even on a main card featuring top heavyweights such as Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir, Antonio "Big Foot" Silva will have a chance to capture Fight of the Night honors at UFC 146.

His opponent, the always likable Roy Nelson, is one of the biggest gamers the UFC has to offer.  With an incredible chin, KO power and an unmatched love for the sport, Nelson will welcome the ex-Strikeforce contender to the UFC heavyweight ranks.

Silva will enter this fight after dropping his most recent bout to the very talented Daniel Cormier back in September.  But the 32-year-old Brazilian brings one heck of a resume regardless of his recent misfortunes.  Victories over Fedor Emelianenko, Mike Kyle and Andrei Arlovski over the past two years suggest he's ready to live up to his new UFC contract.

Similar to many MMA fans, I love watching Nelson fight inside the cage.  And with his upcoming matchup coming at the hands of a talented journeyman himself, sparks are going to fly.

Here's what the initial head-to-toe breakdown looks like.  Enjoy.

Striking

SILVA

I'm in no way bashing Roy Nelson's standup.  He's one of the most talented strikers in the UFC heavyweight division.

But when he's matched up against a taller, quicker and more explosive fighter who has backgrounds in karate, judo and muay thai, Nelson should come off as a little suspect.

Not to mention Antonio Silva consistently trains alongside fellow heavyweights Junior dos Santos and Cain Velasquez, who are two of the most well-rounded boxers the division has to offer.

Silva's efforts over his past few fights, disregarding his loss to Daniel Cormier that many consider a "fluke," have transformed him into a much better striker than he once was.  Power, speed, athleticism and size all culminate into a well-tuned arsenal of strikes.

For Nelson, who has contended on his feet with the likes of Mirko Cro Cop, Frank Mir and Brendan Schaub, fighting a bigger opponent like Silva is really going to test him as to where exactly he stacks up within the heavyweight division.

It may not be a one-sided affair, but with a reach and better training partners, Silva should have the edge from the get-go.

Clinch

SILVA

Once again I'm not trying to discredit Roy Nelson in any fashion.  But regardless of his world-class grappling, Antonio Silva has a much better offensive presence inside than "Big Country" will ever have.

With size and athleticism, Silva is going to be able to land knees by the bunches on Nelson's big target of a belly.  Not to mention Silva's ability to get up high and attack the head in short and uncomfortable striking conditions.

Power wise they seem to offer the same amount of gusto, but once again, with the range and flexibility that Silva offers, Nelson shouldn't want to get close and have to defend knee after knee.

But as it happens in most of Nelson's bell-to-bell contests, at some point we're going to see a battle against the cage that offers some dirty boxing and solid striking.

It may be the least effective aspect to determine how this fight is going end, but the clinch is always important.  Never forget that.

Wrestling

NELSON

No contest.

Roy Nelson is a world-class grappler and has used that skill in the past to literally suffocate his opponents.

If Antonio Silva gets trapped on the ground under Nelson's big body, it's going to be hard for him to get up without sustaining significant damage from the bottom.

Also considering Nelson loves the takedown, he'll be able to use a smaller frame to get low on "Big Foot" and try to take the fight to the canvas.

Not to mention Nelson's wrestling abilities could force Silva to adjust his game plan on the fly and tweak his standup as the bout goes on.

Submissions

EVEN

Honestly, I couldn't determine which guy had the upper hand as far as submissions go.

Both Roy Nelson and Antonio Silva have black belts in jiu-jitsu and have both ended fights in their career via submission. 

Nothing too extravagant, but they've shown in the past that they're capable of ending a fight by the way of a choke, lock or arm bar.

With that said, I don't see their upcoming fight being any sort of black belt showdown.  It should more or less correlate between finding holes in each other's striking and Nelson trying to mount Silva.

Fight Finishing Ability

NELSON

The most important thing to remember here is that Roy Nelson has never been finished inside the Octagon.

Sure he has been tagged by top-notch heavyweights like Junior dos Santos and Frank Mir, but throughout his three UFC losses, Nelson has been able to walk over to his corner after every round.

Now while that doesn't exactly translate into his own ability to end fights, even though he's more than capable of doing so with his raw power, it does however mean that Antonio Silva is going to have his work cut out for him.

Knocking out Nelson may be the hardest thing to do for any heavyweight.  His chin is basically an iron plate, evident by him being able to stand and last all three rounds with dos Santos after the champion landed 130 total strikes.

Obviously anything is possible, and Nelson could easily get caught with a good punch or a vicious knee, but as it stands right now, Silva will have to win this fight via decision.

For Nelson, he'll have to test Silva's range in order to get inside and make up for the reach disadvantage to try to land a powerful right.

Verdict

NELSON VIA TKO IN ROUND 3

This time around I'm going to take the smaller fighter and trust that wrestling and experience will pay off against a top-level opponent.

Antonio Silva's arrival to the UFC heavyweight division, alongside other recent acquisitions of Alistair Overeem and Fabricio Werdum, will surely reshape every fighter's future path to title contention.

He's one of the most talented big men in the sport today, but he has never really faced an opponent like Roy Nelson.  With raw power, a strong base and an unmatched chin, Silva is going to have to wow all of us in order to end this fight early.

That, and that alone, forces me to take Nelson in three.  I don't think Silva will be able to weather a storm if it comes his way, and we've seen in the past that "Big Country" always has some vicious strikes left in the tank in the later rounds.

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