2012 NFL Mock Draft: Optimal First-Round Strategy for Each Franchise
The 2012 NFL Draft is only a month away, and while all 32 teams will be choosing from the same pool of available players, the differing needs and philosophies of each franchise ensure that no two front offices view that pool of players in the same light.
With that said, here's an updated look at how those strategies have been impacted by free agency and what effect the needs of each NFL club will have on how the first round of this year's draft might shake out.
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford: The Colts are bringing Luck in for a private workout, so it appears that for all intents and purposes, the debate as to who the first overall pick will be is settled, although the Colts aren't tipping their hand just yet.
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis Rams): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor: The Redskins will get the player that they hope will be their franchise quarterback of the future, but can they build a competitive team around him, given the price they paid for the pick and the $36 million in cap space that the NFL yanked out from under them?
3. Minnesota Vikings: Matt Kalil, OT, USC: There have been rumblings that the Vikings might prefer Morris Claiborne in this spot, but elite left tackle prospects are even rarer than stud cornerbacks and the team desperately needs an upgrade over Charlie Johnson at LT.
4. Cleveland Browns: Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State: There is probably no team in the National Football League that needs playmakers on offense more than the Cleveland Browns, so while Claiborne would form an imposing duo with Joe Haden at cornerback, the Browns need to go offense here.
Justin Blackmon is the the two-time defending Biletnikoff Award winner as college football's top wide receiver after racking up over 3.300 receiving yards over that stretch, and the 6'1", 207-pound wideout would instantly be quarterback Colt McCoy's top option in the Cleveland passing game.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU: Cornerback Ronde Barber is old and Aqib Talib may be watching opening day from a cell block, so the Buccaneers need to continue to upgrade the secondary after adding the quizzically overrated Eric Wright in free agency.
6. St. Louis Rams: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa: This may seem like a bit of a reach to some, but no team in the NFL allowed more sacks than the Rams in 2011, so improving the protection for quarterback Sam Bradford has to be a priority.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina: The Jaguars were able to retain end Jeremy Mincey, who led the team in sacks a year ago, but they ranked 25th in the NFL in sacks in 2011 and need to improve the defensive front.
8. Miami Dolphins: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M: The Dolphins are just desperate enough for a franchise quarterback after swinging and missing badly at the position in free agency to spend a Top 10 pick on a signal-caller with all of 15 career starts.
9. Carolina Panthers: Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis: The Carolina run defense was gashed up the middle almost at will last season, and Memphis defensive tackle Dontari Poe was one of the studs of the NFL combine, running a ridiculous 40-yard dash time for a man of his size and excelling in the bench press.
10. Buffalo Bills: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame: After making a big splash on the defensive side of the ball in free agency by signing defensive end Mario Williams, the Bills need to improve the weaponry at quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's disposal.
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Michael Brockers, DT, LSU: The Chiefs were able to address many of their offseason needs in free agency, adding right tackle Eric Winston, running back Peyton Hillis and cornerback Stanford Routt, but with 2011 starter Kelly Gregg a 35-year-old free agent, nose tackle is still an area of need for Kansas City.
Enter LSU's Michael Brockers, who racked up 54 tackles, two sacks and a forced fumble last year for the Tigers and who would instantly upgrade the Chiefs defensive front.
12. Seattle Seahawks: Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina: The Seahawks ranked in the bottom half of the National Football League in sacks last year, and the South Carolina star would form a nice pass-rushing tandem with burgeoning defensive end Chris Clemons for Seattle.
13. Arizona Cardinals: David DeCastro, OG, Stanford: The Cardinals reportedly prefer DeCastro over Stanford teammate Jonathan Martin, but whether it's inside at guard or outside at tackle, the team badly needs to improve the offensive line.
14. Dallas Cowboys: Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama: The Cowboys' secondary was embarrassed in their season-ending loss to the New York Giants, so Jerry Jones is sure to make improving the defensive backfield a priority in April's draft.
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State: Trading for linebacker DeMeco Ryans seems to have remedied at least some of the Eagles' problems in the middle of their defense, but Philadelphia could still use an upgrade next to Cullen Jenkins at defensive tackle.
16. Cleveland Browns (from New York Jets): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama: If you believe that Richardson is the best running back prospect to come along in several years (which I do) and you're as hard up for playmakers on offense as the Browns are, then making the move to acquire the Alabama bellcow is a no-brainer.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland Raiders): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia: The Bengals have a huge need on the interior of the offensive line, and with David DeCastro off the board, Cincinnati will turn to the mauling run blocker from Georgia.
18. San Diego Chargers: Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama: The San Diego Chargers averaged only two sacks a game last season, and Upshaw's extensive experience in the 3-4 defense would be an added benefit as the Bolts attempt to upgrade their pass rush.
19. Chicago Bears: Whitney Mercilus, DE, Illinois: After missing out on the Mario Williams sweepstakes in free agency, the Bears re-upped veteran defensive end Israel Idonije, but that doesn't mean that Da Bears have given up on finding a new playmate for Julius Peppers along the Chicago defensive line.
The Bears may turn their eyes to 6'4", 261-pound defensive end Whitney Mercilus, who led the NCAA with 16 sacks last season. While some question whether Mercilus was a "one-year wonder," he would likely appeal plenty to Bears fans given his time at the University of Illinois.
20. Tennessee Titans: Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College: The Titans are reportedly bringing Kuechly, who led the nation in tackles in 2011, in for a visit even though they would seem to be set in the middle with youngster Colin McCarthy. Either the Titans are just kicking the tires or Tennessee may be set to bump one or the other outside while continuing their defensive overhaul.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama: The Bengals could certainly use a cornerback to team with Leon Hall, and if there's a team in the NFL that may take a first-round chance on the talented but troubled Jenkins, it's the Bengals, who have a long history of drafting or signing players with checkered pasts.
22. New York Jets (from Cleveland Browns via Atlanta Falcons): Nick Perry, DE/OLB, USC: This would actually be a good piece of offseason news for a Jets team that has spent the better part of free agency blowing toes off, as the Jets will have improved their mediocre pass rush while also picking up an extra draft choice or three.
23. Detroit Lions: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina: The Lions needed help in the secondary even before cornerback Eric Wright left for Tampa (which isn't necessarily a bad thing), and his departure kicks the Lions need for cornerbacks into overdrive.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama: The Steelers released veteran linebacker James Farrior and apparently have no intention of bringing him back, and Hightower's familiarity with the 3-4 defense and hard-nosed attitude would make him a great fit with the no-nonsense Steelers.
25. Denver Broncos: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor: I'll freely admit that this may well be the most speculative pick of this mock draft, but the Denver Broncos' acquisition of quarterback Peyton Manning could easily have shifted the focus of much of their offseason strategy.
If the Broncos are looking to upgrade the passing attack that they now suddenly have, then the 5'10", 196-pound Wright, who caught a gaudy 108 passes for over 1,600 yards in 2011, would certainly seem to be a step in a direction that the forehead would find favorable.
26. Houston Texans: Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech: The Texans desperately need a wide receiver to complement Andre Johnson, and the 6'4" Hill has leapt into first-round consideration after fantastic outings both at the NFL combine and Georgia Tech's pro day.
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints): Devon Still, DT, Penn State: New England could stand to upgrade in just about every facet of their defense and Still, who was the Big Ten defensive player of the year in 2011, is a versatile player capable of playing either defensive tackle in a 4-3 front or defensive end in the 3-4.
28. Green Bay Packers: Andre Branch, DE/OLB, Clemson: Many of the Packers' issues on a defense that ranked dead last a season ago can be traced back to a pass rush that ranked 27th in the NFL in sacks, and the addition of the Clemson standout opposite Clay Matthews would definitely be an improvement in that regard.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin: Starter Matt Birk is set to return in 2012 after inking a three-year extension, but at 35 years old, he's nearing the end of the line. Konz, the draft's top center prospect, could offer depth at guard and apprentice under the six-time Pro Bowler until it's his time to snap the ball to Joe Flacco in Baltimore.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford: Fleener has seemingly laid claim to the title of top tight end in the 2012 draft class after an outstanding pro day, and his old college coach could look to pair Fleener and Vernon Davis to create the sorts of matchup nightmares that the Gronkowski/Hernandez duo creates for the New England Patriots,
31. New England Patriots: Mark Barron, SS, Alabama: The New England defensive backfield was an absolute mess in 2011, ranking 31st in the NFL against the pass. However, with the top cornerback prospects off the board, Bill Belichick and company could well look to address the back end of the secondary by selecting the draft's top safety in Barron.
32. New York Giants: Amini Silatolu, OT/OG, Midwestern State: The New York Giants' offensive line isn't getting any younger, and the big man from the small school could provide depth at both tackle and guard as he makes the jump from a tiny Division II school to the bright lights of the National Football League.
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