Fantasy Baseball 2012: Ian Kinsler, Cole Hamels and Others in Twitter Q&A

Soumyajeet Ghosh (@soumyajeetghosh) says: I have the 12th and 13th picks (Rounds 1/2) in a snake draft? Does Jacoby Ellsbury, then Ian Kinsler sound kosher to you?

Answer

I never get fantasy questions with "kosher" included, but I'll play along here. Kinsler (32 HRs, 121 runs last year) is my favorite position player and one of fantasyland's most bankable assets from year to year.

And yet, I wouldn't consider grabbing Kinsler (.255 batting in 2011) at No. 13 in a snake draft. If your heart is truly set on Ellsbury at 12, then I would probably take one of the power-hitting first basemen at 13, like Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder or Joey Votto, if he slides to Round 2.

As stated many times in this blog, there are only so many corner-infield studs in fantasy, and there are no guarantees that Ellsbury will replicate last season's 32 homers—a 400-percent jump from his combined total in 2009-10.

If you should pursue the middle-infield route over Votto, Prince or Gonzo, how about Hanley Ramirez and his impending SS-3B eligibility? Good drafting is all about great value at every turn—and Kinsler at 13 seems a half-round too high.

Will Chukerman (@wchuk29) asks: I have a relatively weak pitching rotation and have the opportunity to acquire Cole Hamels/Yadier Molina for Brian McCann/Adrian Beltre. Just so you know, I also have Aramis Ramirez as my UTIL and Kendrys Morales on the bench. It's a CBS head-to-head points league. Thanks!

Answer

Will, let's attack your excellent question in different parts. For starters, your trade fits under the "1-4 vs. 2-3 Rule Of Proportional Trading," which means that you'd be getting the first- and fourth-ranked players in the deal, and Owner B would acquire the No. 2 (Beltre) and No. 3 (McCann) assets.

It's essentially a balanced trade, although Owner B is certainly getting two dynamite hitters.

Secondly, most CBS head-to-head leagues are slightly slanted toward elite pitching, escalating Hamels' worth and subtly marginalizing Beltre and McCann's impact.

On the surface, it looks like a win-win trade for both parties—but sometimes, that's not enough mojo to execute a deal. Which brings me to this: Are you prepared to give Aramis Ramirez and Morales full-time starting roles, filling the voids of Beltre and McCann?

Would you have zero regrets about this trade if Hamels falls short of last year's stellar numbers (14 wins, 194 strikeouts, 2.79 ERA, 0.99 WHIP)? If so, then go for it. Thanks!

Chad Robb (@HuskerMagic) wonders: Who would you rather have for a third outfielder, Lance Berkman or Carlos Beltran?

Answer

Chad, in my early-March listing of the Top 40 Outfielders, I conservatively pegged Berkman as the No. 23 asset and Beltran at No. 34, and I remain true to the rankings, given Berkman's dual-eligibility (1B/OF), productive stats from 2011 (31 HRs, 94 RBIs, 90 runs, .301 batting) and less likelihood to hit the disabled list for prolonged stretches.

But this isn't a simple black-and-white question. Beltran could easily post similar numbers to Berkman in 2012—a potentially volatile season without Albert Pujols in the St. Louis lineup—at a significantly lower draft price.

Berkman is a good candidate for Rounds 8 and 9, whereas Beltran could be had sometime in Rounds 15 and 16 (12-team roto leagues).

Grant F. (@IzASportzNut) asks: Who gets drafted first between Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt or Marlins infielder Emilio Bonifacio? How early is "too early" for Goldy? What about Bonnie?

Answer

From an Average Draft Position standpoint, Goldschmidt has a pre-draft value of 142 (12th round), while Bonifacio's stands at 168 (15th round).

However, in my last four mock drafts, the two assets were essentially taken in the same spot (Rounds 14 and 15), despite bringing different pluses to the fantasy table.

Perhaps owners are feeling more comfortable by the day about Bonifacio and his three-position versatility (SS/3B/OF). Perhaps fantasy GMs were too busy prioritizing corner-infield power at the top of drafts, and then had to focus on speed.

'Tis the beauty of drafting: Nothing is ever set in stone.

Greg Martin (@GMart4041) wonders: Roto question: I need a potential closer off waivers -- Greg Holland or Sean Marshall?

Answer

At the time of this writing, neither the Royals nor Reds have committed to new closers, replacing Joakim Soria and Ryan Madson, respectively. So we're talking about an educated guess here.

Marshall (13 wins, 166/43 K-BB ratio, six saves in 2010-11) would likely be more bankable as a closer, given his experience and overall career development. On the flip side, the 26-year-old Holland has the stuff of a potentially dynamic closer and would come at a reduced price in trade talks.

Regarding waiver claims, though, I'd prioritize Marshall over Holland, even though Aroldis Chapman, Homer Bailey and Logan Ondrusek would all fare well as Cincinnati's potential back-end ace.

Thanks!

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.