2012 MLB Predictions: Picking the Top 5 Home Run Hitters in MLB

Baseball has changed a lot over the years, and it will continue to change as we move forward.

But there's one thing about baseball that will never change, and that's the fact that home runs are awesome.

Luckily, home runs will never be in short supply. If it seems like there are a lot of players out there capable of hitting home runs, that's because there are. In 2011, 23 different players hit as many as 30 home runs, eight of whom topped 35. 

Here's a spoiler: Not much is going to change in 2012. Home run hitters will continue to hit home runs, and all shall be happy.

As for which hitters will hit more dingers than all the others, here are my picks.

5. Matt Kemp

Matt Kemp led the National League last season with 39 home runs, mixing in a .324 batting average, 126 RBI and 40 stolen bases. It was one of the most impressive individual seasons we've seen in a long time.

We knew Kemp had this kind of power before, but he just hadn't been able to realize it. That changed in 2011 because Kemp was far more patient at the plate. He took his walks and waited for a pitch to drive. When he got one, he didn't miss.

The remarkable part of Kemp's 2011 season was how consistent he was. He slugged .584 before the All-Star break and .590 after the All-Star break.

It's fair to expect some decline in 2012, as pitchers won't be as willing to go right at Kemp as they were last season. His other numbers will be fine, but he'll lose a couple home runs off his 2011 total.

Prediction: 37 home runs

4. Albert Pujols

Albert Pujols had the worst season of his career last season, yet he still managed to hit 37 home runs with a .541 slugging percentage.

This spring, Pujols has already hit four home runs, and he really hasn't had any trouble adjusting to his new role with the Los Angeles Angels. They're not going to get outstanding production out of him down the road, but they can rest comfortably knowing Pujols is still an elite hitter.

All Pujols needs to do this season is stay healthy. If he does that, he's going to post a slugging percentage close to .600, and he's going to hit plenty of home runs. 

I'm setting the bar just below his career average.

Prediction: 41 home runs

3. Giancarlo Stanton

Giancarlo Stanton has what they call "light-tower power." It's typically an exaggeration, but not when it comes to him. He can hit the ball very far.

The most telling stat is Stanton's ISO, which essentially measures a hitter's raw power. Stanton's ISO in 2011 was .275, the highest mark in the National League.

It all translated to 34 home runs. Stanton has the ability to hit a lot more than that, but to do so he'll have to cut down on his strikeouts. He's got a very big strike zone, and he hasn't mastered it yet.

But Stanton is on the right track. He's going to cut down on his strikeouts even further in 2012, and that will lead to more contact. When he makes contact, the ball will travel far.

Prediction: 44 home runs

2. Jose Bautista

Nobody has hit more home runs than Jose Bautista over the last two seasons. He has hit exactly 97 of them.

Bautista also leads the league in ISO over the last two seasons, and it's not even close. Bautista's ISO since the start of the 2010 season is .333. The next-closest guy is at .267.

The one concern is that Bautista really tailed off in the second half of last season. He hit 31 home runs before the All-Star break and just 12 home runs after the break. That was largely due to minor injuries that sapped Bautista's power.

I don't expect Bautista to get back to hitting 50-plus homers like he did in 2010, but good health will lead to greater consistency and plenty of dingers when all is said and done.

Prediction: 45 home runs

1. Miguel Cabrera

Miguel Cabrera has never hit more than 38 home runs in a season, so you're probably thinking I'm going out on a limb with this pick.

Not really. Cabrera is the guy with the .267 ISO over the last two seasons, meaning he's been one of the top power hitters in baseball since the start of 2010. This is due mainly to his 38-homer season in 2010, but you can't knock Cabrera's 30-homer season in 2011.

The key difference for Cabrera in 2012 will be the guy protecting him in the lineup. Prince Fielder will be batting behind Cabrera in Detroit's lineup, and that will result in a few extra hittable pitches coming Cabrera's way.

He won't miss them. 

Prediction: 46 home runs