NHL Southeast: A Midseason Analysis

We're almost at the All-Star break, and while most NHL teams are just past the midway point, let's take a moment to break down the Southeast Division. Since the NHL realignment, the Southeast has struggled to gain legitimacy from many NHL analysts and fans alike.

Even though both Tampa Bay and Carolina have won Stanley Cups in recent years, usually only the division winner has qualified for the postseason. Possbily this season, and in the years to come, I think that the Southeast will establish a reputation as a tougher set of teams, and less of a cake-walk.

Let's take a look at the teams (ranked by div. standings) and see where the teams stack up, what factors have influenced their current season, and the odds that these teams make the playoffs.

No. 1 - Washington Capitals, 59 pts in 45 games played, second in Eastern Conference.

The Caps have finally fought off their traditionally slow starts and made a case to be seen as one of the top contenders in the East this year. With multiple 5+ win streaks, the top home record in the conference, and a mighty roster, the Caps have made short work of opponents on many nights.

No. 8, Alex the Great is once again streaking to the top of the NHL leader boards after a slow start. He is complemented by a (finally healthy) Caps' roster that boasts secondary scoring from guys like Alex Semin, Tomas Fleischmann, and Viktor Kozlov. The defense has been a revolving door due to injuries, but the relatively young core of Mike Green, Milan Jurcina, and rookie Karl Alzner has been solid on most nights.

The Caps should keep their spot and take the division, and with a current 12 pt lead, it would be a big disappointment to Caps' fans if they flounder through the second half.

No. 2 - Carolina Hurricanes, 47 pts in 45 games played, eighth in Eastern Conference.

The Canes have struggled thus far to find consistency, with only two win streaks of three games or more. No one doubts that this is a solid team, with plenty of scoring punch and often stellar goaltending from Cam Ward.

Unfortunately, between the potent offense, and the strong goalie, is an inconsistent and often slow defensive corps that needs to find its way in the revised system.

Carolina struggled and ousted long-time coach Peter Laviolette, then brought back former coach Paul Maurice. The move has had a positive effect on the team, but they have yet to gain any real traction due to the meteoric rise of their division foes (the Caps).

The Canes have a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs in my opinion. They play a very streaky brand of hockey, and if they can find the right groove, the mid to lower portion of the Eastern conference could be theirs for the taking. I see a seventh or eighth seed for them by season's end.

No. 3 - Florida Panthers, 46 pts in 42 games played, ninth in the Eastern Conference.

The Panthers have all the right ingredients in the mix, to be a top-notch team. I think chemistry and timing are all that they lack. David Booth has stood up and taken the scoring role for them this year. And with Stephen Weiss, Nathan Horton, and a cast of seasoned vets, the Panters may luck themselves into a good stretch run. As long as the can find some consistency in goal from Vokoun and Craig Anderson.

The defense is (again) a little suspect on some nights, and many hockey bloggers do not think that Florida will keep Jay Bouwmeester past the trade deadline if they are falling out of contention.

The Panthers have a 50 percent probability to make a playoff appearance this season. The need to keep their eyes on the eight seed and buckle down (stop the high-scoring affairs). Whether they make the playoffs or not, Florida still has to find the right formula to blend their veteran leaders with the youngsters.

No. 4 - Tampa Bay Lightning, 38 pts in 44 games played, 12th in the Eastern Conference.

The Lightning have not had a lot to celebrate this season. A bevy of off-season moves, and coaching changes have turned out to be a pretty big disappointment for the new ownership group.

Vets like Olaf Kolzig, Mark Recchi, and Gary Roberts have made little impact, while Vinny Lecavalier and Marty St. Louis keep plugging away trying to make things happen.

Many believe that Vinny will be the target of a big trade (possibly Montreal?) by the deadline as the Lightnings' owners try to stop the bleeding on their "franken-team" experiment.

There is a very little chance that the Lightning make a turn around soon. Even though they had a relatively successful road trip recently, at their current pace the Lighting will be jockeying for the top pick in the draft this summer.

#5 - Atlanta Thrashers, 33 pts in 44 games, 14th in the Eastern Conference.

With six streaks of three consecutive losses (or more) this season, and only one winning streak (five games), the Trashers have had many more downs than ups so far in 08-09.

Besides being able to win back-to-back games, Atlanta has struggled to find secondary scoring behind Ilya Kovalchuk, Bryan Little, and Slava Kozlov. The Thrash stumble on defense and have given up a conference high 160 goals so far. They have the worst penalty kill as well.

With spotty goaltending from oft-injured Kari Lehtonen, far less output from rookie Ondrej Pavelec, and abysmal performances by "vet" Johan Hedberg, Atlanta goalies combined have a +3.3 GAA, and save percent no where near the 90 percent mark...which leads me to believe that a high draft pick may be in the cards for them.

I just hope for Thrashers' fans that a major sell-off is not going to cost them more of the highly-drafted players that currently fill the roster.

There should be some great hockey down the stretch as the Eastern Conference shakes out. Look for rising teams like the Washington Capitals to put the pedal down on locking up a playoff berth, and other teams on the rise like Carolina and Florida to creep into the mix.

Hopefully, Atlanta and Tampa will find what it takes to make the push, or they will definitely factor in the trade deadline stock-piling.

As always, enjoy the game!

Netminder71