2012 NFL Mock Draft: Dark-Horse Prospects Who Should Crack the Top 10

When the NFL draft rolls around, there's been so much analysis and so many mocks done that there's practically a script that the first 10 picks in the draft are supposed to abide by.

That never happens. Teams have minds of their own, and they see the draft differently than the so-called experts.

A key reason why the top 10 never goes according to plan is because teams are prone to picking players much higher than they were supposed to be picked. Think Darrius Heyward-Bey in 2009 and Aldon Smith in 2011. They were dark horses who crept into the top 10.

I'm going to try and simulate what the draft might look like if the top 10 becomes populated with dark horse picks. It should be interesting.

Away we go...

1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford

No dark horse here. Andrew Luck has been the heavy favorite to end up in Indy for months, and nothing Robert Griffin III does is going to change that.

2. Washington Redskins (5-11, after trade with St. Louis): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Robert Griffin III won't go No. 1, but there's no chance of him slipping past the Redskins. They'll draft him even if he suffers a nasty injury between now and the draft. If I were the Redskins, I'd arrange for him to stay in a safeguarded suite with inflatable furniture and padded walls until April 26.

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

It was reported by The Times-Picayune that Morris Claiborne has to have surgery on his wrist, but it doesn't sound like it's a huge deal. The St. Paul Pioneer Press reported this week that the Vikings are really high on Claiborne, which could just be a smokescreen to hide their interest in Matt Kalil. It could also be legit, as the Vikings may think Claiborne is the guy to fix their rotten pass defense. I think the possibility is worth a gamble.

4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama

The Browns seem to be keeping a roster spot warm from Trent Richardson after watching Peyton Hillis sign with the Chiefs. If he's there (and he will be), it's hard to see them passing on him. 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Matt Kalil, OT, USC

The Bucs have bigger needs than offensive line help, but this is the best possible pick they'll be able to make if Matt Kalil is still on the board. If the Vikings pass up value like that, the Bucs won't.

6. St. Louis Rams (2-14, after trade with Washington): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

The Rams might pass on Justin Blackmon, but he's by far the safest pick they can make. The last thing the Rams should do at this juncture is take risks.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford

Ding ding! We have our first potential dark-horse top-10 draft pick.

The general consensus concerning the Jaguars is that their top three needs are at cornerback, wide receiver and defensive end.

Well, the Jaguars re-signed Rashean Mathis and signed Aaron Ross, they signed Laurent Robinson, and re-signed Jeremy Mincey (see ESPN.com for a rundown of Jacksonville's offseason). They now have wiggle room to pursue other needs with the No. 7 pick in the draft.

One area that could use an upgrade is the middle of Jacksonville's offensive line. It was a weakness in 2011 and is in need of a young stud to stabilize things. David DeCastro is by far the best offensive guard in the 2012 draft class, and he's a guy who could start right away for the Jags.

The Jags could go a number of directions with their pick. This is one of them.

8. Miami Dolphins (5-11): Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Based on talent alone, Ryan Tannehill has absolutely no business going in the top 10 in the draft. For that matter, he doesn't even deserve to go in the first round.

However, the Dolphins failed to get Peyton Manning and they whiffed on Matt Flynn. And David Garrard, for the record, is not the answer. Neither is Matt Moore.

The Dolphins can't be content with stopgaps like Garrard and Moore. They've needed a young franchise quarterback for years, and there's no time like the present to take a chance.

If they draft Tannehill, they'll be taking a huge chance. With enough patience and proper grooming, though, it's a chance that could pay off in a big way.

9. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis

Before the combine, Dontari Poe was a little-known sleeper prospect.

Not anymore. Poe owned the combine, launching himself up big boards all over the country. He went from being a sleeper to being a Haloti Ngata clone, which is a very, very good thing for him.

The Panthers need a stud presence in the middle of their defensive line, and the two DTs they drafted in 2011 are not studs. They're mere pawns. The question is not whether they should be pushed out of the way, but whom the Panthers should pick to do it.

Michael Brockers is the other possibility, but he didn't have a good showing at the combine, and he could ill afford that given the fact everyone is well aware of how inexperienced he is. Brockers has potential, but there's not a whole lot on his resume to justify a top-10 pick.

Poe is different. He's given the Panthers and every other team every reason to believe he's legit.

10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

The Bills re-signed Stevie Johnson, but that doesn't mean they're totally set at wide receiver. Another able body wouldn't hurt.

Michael Floyd is a guy who should intrigue the Bills. He's big, he's fast and he's capable of pulling down any ball thrown in his direction. And indeed, he got used to making tough catches at Notre Dame, as he had some pretty lousy quarterbacks chucking it in his direction.

The Bills have the makings of a good offense, but it's not complete. If they draft Floyd and place him alongside Johnson, it will be complete.

Then all they'd have to do is cross their fingers and hope Ryan Fitzpatrick can play well. That's no sure thing.

11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

The Chiefs scored with the signing of Peyton Hillis, as they now have the pieces in place for an outstanding rushing attack. They need to make their offensive line stronger, however, and Jonathan Martin represents terrific value for them at No. 11.

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

Defensive end isn't as huge a need as it could have been after the re-signing of Red Bryant, but Quinton Coples would be too good to pass up if he falls to the Seahawks.

13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Melvin Ingram, OLB, South Carolina

Melvin Ingram is a guy who could very well creep into the top 10 on draft day. If he doesn't, he'll be on the radar of the Cardinals, who could use an upgrade at outside linebacker.

14. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

The Cowboys scored with the Brandon Carr signing, but they still need bodies for their secondary. Character issues aside, Janoris Jenkins is a talented player who would be a good get for the Cowboys.

15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU

The Eagles filled their biggest need with their trade for DeMeco Ryans. They're now in a position to take the best player available player at No. 15. If he's still there, that will be Michael Brockers. He'd make an already strong defensive line even stronger.

16. New York Jets (8-8): Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama

The Jets need a pass-rushing outside linebacker, one who will strike fear into Tom Brady's heart. Courtney Upshaw is the man for the job.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from 8-8 Oakland Raiders): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

The Bengals have good young defense, but they need a cornerback. Stephon Gilmore will be the best corner available at No. 17, and the Bengals will be lucky to get him seeing as how he could go just as high, if no higher, as Janoris Jenkins. 

18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

The Chargers re-signed Jared Gaither, but they still need offensive line depth. Getting Riley Reiff would be an absolute steal here.

19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College

Brian Urlacher is getting old, and his contract expires at the end of the 2012 season. Worse, it sounds like his knee is pretty messed up. Now's the time for the Bears to pick up an heir apparent, and Luke Kuechly would be the best option.

20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

The Titans lost Cortland Finnegan to the St. Louis Rams. They need to make up his loss by drafting a cornerback. Dre Kirkpatrick is far from perfect, but he's a first-round talent who would fill Tennessee's cornerback need.

21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Mark Barron, S, Alabama

I've typically had the Bengals going for a running back with this pick in my mocks, but they don't need one now that they've signed BenJarvus Green-Ellis. They'll have a number of options with this pick, but a good idea would be to keep adding to their secondary with Mark Barron. 

22. Cleveland Browns (from 10-6 Atlanta Falcons): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor

The Bengals have a good young wide receiver in Greg Little, but they need a speed demon to help stretch the field. Kendall Wright made a star out of himself doing just that at Baylor.

23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Jamell Fleming, CB, Oklahoma

The Lions lost Eric Wright to free agency, and they can't let his spot go unfilled. Jamell Fleming will be the best option at No. 23 if the Lions choose to look past their O-line issues to draft a corner. That's a legit possibility given the passing attacks the Lions are going to have to contend with in 2012.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Cordy Glenn, G/T, Georgia

The Steelers have one of the weakest offensive lines in the NFL. Drafting a guy like Cordy Glenn, who can play multiple positions, is almost too good to be true for them.

25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Fletcher Cox, DT, Mississippi State

The Broncos have Peyton Manning. Now they need to make sure their defense is as strong as can be. It won't be until they shore up the middle of their defensive line. Taking Fletcher Cox is the best way for them to do that.

26. Houston Texans (10-6): Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech

Just like the Browns, the Texans need a wide receiver who can stretch the field with his speed. Stephen Hill is one of the fastest wide receivers in this year's draft class. He'd do nicely.

27. New England Patriots (from 13-3 New Orleans Saints): Nick Perry, OLB, USC

If the Patriots can get Nick Perry here, they shouldn't hesitate to take him. They could use a dynamic DE/OLB-type player, and Perry is a guy who can rush the passer. He'd be a valuable asset on New England's defense.

28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

The Packers have needs on defense, but lucking into Lamar Miller here would be too good to be true. The Packers need to balance their offense, and Miller is a guy who would open up all sorts of opportunities for their already dangerous offense.

29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State

The Ravens need depth in several key areas, and their offensive line is one of them. Mike Adams would be a good get at No. 29.

30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Kevin Zeitler, OG, Wisconsin

The 49ers have been busy bees in free agency, shoring up various weaknesses with key signings. The best thing they can do in the draft is shore up the middle of their offensive line by taking a guard. Kevin Zeitler would be a reach, but the 49ers can afford to make it.

31. New England Patriots (13-3): Devon Still, DT, Penn State

The Patriots' defensive line played very well in the playoffs, but it's a weak unit in need of an upgrade. Devon Still is a guy Bill Belichick could play anywhere and fit to any scheme.

32. New York Giants (9-7): Coby Fleener, TE, Stanford

Tight end isn't a huge need for the Giants now that they've signed Martellus Bennett, but it's still not an area of strength either.

They can make it an area of strength by drafting Coby Fleener, who stole the show from Andrew Luck at Stanford's pro day.

I know we're a long way from the top 10, but I want to stop and mention that Fleener could start ascending rapidly after his showing on Thursday. Tight ends with his speed and athleticism don't come around very often, and tight ends with speed and athleticism are in demand now that the NFL has gotten a load of Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham.

Keep a sharp eye on Fleener.