Peyton Manning Broncos: Reasons No. 18 Won't Live Up to Insane Contract

Let's get this out of the way: The Broncos clearly needed to throw a lot of money and years at Peyton Manning in order to get him to sign. After being ushered out of Indianapolis, even after all he did for the Colts' franchise, the most important things on Manning's mind are longevity and security.

But a five-year deal for a 36 year old quarterback coming off a potentially career-threatening surgery is a colossal risk.

Here's why.

Age

Manning will be 36 by the time the 2012 season begins. He'll be 41 by the time this contract has expired.

John Elway, Manning's new boss, was 38 when he retired. So was Joe Montana. So was Dan Marino. Brett Favre was 41, but put him aside, since his retirement will have an asterisk next to it until he's at least 60.

The point is that most of the greatest quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen were approaching the twilight of their careers right around the age Manning is now.

Manning, like Favre, is a quarterback who rarely, if ever, misses any time on the field, which could either help him (he's used to the toll the NFL season takes on you) or hurt him (he's wearing down faster).

Never has Manning started fewer than 16 games in a season, but now, coming off neck surgery that forced him to miss all of 2011, will he just pick up right where he left off? Or will he need time to ease back into things, especially with a new and unfamiliar team?

Time will tell, but there is a strong possibility that the older Manning will resemble the younger Manning (I don't mean Eli) less and less as this new contract runs its course.

Money

A reported $96 million is a big chunk of change to throw at a guy who missed an entire season because of an injury, even if that guy is Peyton Manning.

Just for some perspective, the contract extension Tom Brady signed in 2010 made him the NFL's highest-paid player, and even that paid him an average of only $18 million per year with $48.5 million guaranteed. Brady was 33 when he signed off on that.

Manning is perhaps the only guy in the NFL who even deserves a contract like this coming off an injury, but it is still risky. He hasn't even been on the field since the injury, so who knows how it will affect him?

Of course, the Broncos did include a clause in case this injury does prove to be a problem.

According to multiple NFL sources, the firs year of Manning's contract guarantees him $18 million. If he passes his postseason physicals after 2012 and 2013, he will be guaranteed $20 million each year. If Manning fails his physicals because of the neck injury, his salary will be reduced. The $38 million he is due in 2015-16 is not guaranteed, regardless of the neck injury.

Obviously, the Broncos were smart to include some kind of clause that gets them off the hook if this neck injury does take a toll on Manning after all.

But what if Manning's numbers begin to depreciate as he gets older, this particular injury aside?

The Broncos are still on the hook, at least through 2014.

Manning, who has shown little physical wear-and-tear aside from the neck injury throughout his career, should hold up at least through the age of 38, but if he doesn't—and beyond 2014—the Broncos could be in the hunt for a signal-caller yet again.

Which brings me to my next point …

What about Tebow?

I am the last person in the world you will ever catch defending Tim Tebow (or so I thought).

In all seriousness, in Tebow, the Broncos had a 24-year-old quarterback who showed enormous potential to improve, even after leading Denver to the postseason for the first time since 2006.

Much like the case with Manning, there is no way to predict how the rest of Tebow's NFL career will pan out.

Tebow could continue to improve after a year in which he went 7-4 in 11 starts. He still hasn't started a full NFL season, so putting the hopes of the entire franchise on his shoulders was risky—but still, until Manning came along, Denver seemed ready to do just that, and the Colts are gambling on someone who has proven even less.

Tebow was as bright a prospect as any young quarterback. He seemed like he could've given the Broncos something very promising to work with for many, many years to come.

If this whole Manning experiment doesn't work out, you can bet that the first thing the fans will say is that the team should've just stuck with him.

In acquiring Peyton Manning, the Broncos took a risk—granted, a risk that many, many teams in the NFL would have been happy to take, but a risk nonetheless.

The team gave up on one of the brightest prospects the NFL currently has to offer in favor of someone more than 10 years older, fighting to return from a perilous injury. Denver spent a lot of money on a guy who probably will be spectacular but might be mediocre or worse.

We simply don't know yet because we haven't seen Manning play since the neck surgery.

But, the Broncos better pray they made the right choice in letting Tebow get away because they, in signing Manning, had a lot more to lose than Arizona or Miami did.

If the Manning experiment goes wrong …

Well, they should just pray.