Iowa Football: Breaking Down the Hawkeyes 2012 Schedule

Spring practice has started in Iowa City and in most college football towns across the country, which means that the cycle of the college football season has begun.

That means we'll have a new round of predictions, prognostications and punditry from every armchair quarterback that knows how to type.

As I am one of those able typists, the following is an early look at Iowa's 2012 schedule.

With a huge number of graduations over the last two seasons, three new coaches, as well as a new offensive and defensive coordinator, not to mention Kirk Ferentz's seeming admission, according to Hawk Central, that the "offense needed fix," this is the most uncertain year since, arguably, 2008.

In regards to my handicapping, obviously, the spreads and outlooks of teams will change as the season progresses. My attempt at handicapping only concerns what we know now.

When referring to "all-time record," I referred to stassen.com, which only contains data for "major" teams, and therefore, is not an all-time record in the truest sense.

Finally, when referring to "last meeting," the first point total is Iowa's.

Northern Illinois Huskies

When: Sept. 1

Where: Soldier Field, Chi.

All-time Record: 7-0

Kirk Ferentz's Record: 3-0

Last Meeting: 2007, 16-3

2011 Record: 11-3

Returning Starters: Three on offense, nine on defense and both specialists

Key Playmakers: Wide receivers Perez Ashford and Martel Moore; and defensive back Jimmie Ward 

Outlook for Iowa: Next season, the MAC's second-best scoring offense will be defense-dominant. This isn't good news for the Huskies, as they were the MAC's fifth-worst scoring defense.

However, three returning defensive linemen will make a good early test for the Hawks' running game. Moreover, Northern Illinois returns only one offensive lineman to go along with a new quarterback. That will be a good way to break in a new, and inexperienced, defensive line.

Look for Iowa to keep it vanilla, wear NIU down and get substantial carries to at least three backs. Hopefully, none of those backs step on a landmine.

The Hawkeyes will be favored by two scores in this one.

They should cover.

Iowa State Cyclones

When: Sept. 8

Where: Kinnick Stadium

All-time Record: 37-17

Kirk Ferentz's Record: 6-7

Last Meeting: 2011, 41-44 (3OT)

2011 Record: 6-7

Returning Starters: Eight on offense, five on defense and the punter

Key Playmakers: Quarterback Jared Barnett; and linebackers A.J. Klein and Jake Knott 

Outlook for Iowa: Iowa fans have gotten used to coming into this game heavily favored and, as often as not—see Ferentz's record against ISU—flopping and losing. This has been the case regardless of how lousy the Clones were or how good the Hawks were.

The good news is that Ferentz has been solid at home against the Cyclones. He hasn't lost to Iowa State in Kinnick Stadium since 2002.

Next season, ISU projects to be the best team third-year head coach Paul Rhodes has fielded, and the best Iowa State squad that the Hawks have faced since Dan McCarney was at the helm in Ames.

ISU will look to make the game into a shootout, as the Clones will have a strong offense. In fact, it will be the best offense Iowa will see until at least mid-October.

Meanwhile, the Clone defense will have a great pair of linebackers in Klein and Knott, but will have to replace three of its four defensive linemen, not to mention an all-conference cornerback.

This will be Iowa's toughest out-of-conference game by far. The Hawks will be favored by a field goal, which is one point over a typical home-field advantage.

How they fare will determine a great deal about what we can expect from the 2012 Hawkeyes.

Write this one down as a toss-up.

Northern Iowa Panthers (FCS)

When: Sept. 15

Where: Kinnick Stadium

All-time Record: 1-14

Kirk Ferentz's Record: 2-0

Last Meeting: 2009, 17-16

2011 Record: 10-3

Returning Starters: ?

Key Playmakers: Running back David Johnson; and defensive backs Varmah Sonie and Garrett Scott

Outlook for Iowa: This early in the year, it's difficult to find out the returning starter situation for UNI. However, one can say that UNI is at least in reloading mode this season, if not rebuilding mode.

Firstly, one has to consider that in the world of FCS, Northern Iowa is at the level that Alabama is in FBS. Consequently, reloading, to some degree, may be accurate. Moreover, in most years, UNI is at least as tough a challenger to an FBS squad as is a mid-level non-AQ foe.

Last season, the Panthers graduated their all-conference quarterback, top receiver and All-American defensive lineman and linebacker.

Overall, their passing game and defensive front seven will be green. On the other hand, they still have an experienced and formidable offensive line and secondary.

Iowa should be able to wear them down by running right at them, thereby clearing the bench for the fourth quarter at the latest.

On the other hand, the young Iowa defensive line will get a good tune up against a solid offensive front.

There aren't official lines when FBS teams play FCS teams, but by my unofficial count, Iowa will be favored by three scores.

I would mark the Hawks down for a win, but it will probably be closer than fans would like.

Central Michigan Chippewas

When: Sept. 22

Where: Kinnick Stadium

All-time Record: 2-0

Kirk Ferentz's Record: N/A

Last Meeting: 1998, 38-0

2011 Record: 3-9

Returning Starters: Nine on offense, eight on defense and both specialists

Key Playmakers: Receivers Titus Davis and Cody Wilson; and defensive back Jahleel Addae 

Outlook for Iowa: Last season, I predicted CMU to be one of the most improved teams in the country. I missed on that one, but the Chippewas will look to take major strides forward in Dan Enos' third season.

If they do make those strides, then they could be a tough opponent. If not, then Enos will be on a burning hot seat, and Iowa will grab an easy win.

As with NIU, Iowa will face off against a largely intact defensive line, though CMU returns more offensive experience than its MAC brethren.

Iowa will be favored by 10-12 points over Central Michigan.

This should be another win.

Minnesota Golden Gophers (Homecoming)

When: Sept. 29

Where: Kinnick Stadium

All-time Record: 42-60-2

Kirk Ferentz's Record: 8-5

Last Meeting: 2011, 21-22

2011 Record: 3-9 (2-6 in conference)

Returning Starters: Six on offense, eight on defense and both specialists

Key Playmakers: Quarterback Marqueis Gray, defensive lineman Ra'Shede Hageman and defensive back Troy Stoudermire  

Outlook for Iowa: Iowa has no-showed and gotten embarrassed by the Gophers two years in a row. Over the last two seasons Minnesota has had six combined wins. 33 percent of those wins have been at the Hawkeyes' expense.

The Gophers will be much improved next year, but will still be a year away from being competitive. However, if Gray figures out how to pass—50.7 completion percentage in 2011—he will be one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the conference.

The Big Ten's second-worst defense still won't be good in 2012.

Iowa will be favored by five-seven points.

I'd like to say there is no way Kirk Ferentz will allow his team to lose homecoming to the Gophers after last year's embarrassment, but one never knows.

At Michigan State Spartans

When: Oct. 13

Where: East Lansing, MI

All-time Record: 22-19-2

Kirk Ferentz's Record: 5-6

Last Meeting: 2011, 21-37

2011 Record: 11-3 (7-2)

Returning Starters: Five on offense, eight on defense and both specialists

Key Playmakers: Running back Le'Veon Bell; and linebackers Max Bullough and Denicos Allen

Outlook for Iowa: It is conceivable that Iowa will enter this game with a 5-0 record. Meanwhile, MSU will have already played Boise State, Notre Dame and Ohio State. In effect, if the Spartans are still undefeated they will have earned it.

Michigan State will have the best defense the Hawkeyes will face all year.

The Spartans return most of their offensive line, but have to replace their quarterback and almost everybody that caught a pass in 2011.

This will be the Hawkeyes first true road trip. It will also follow a bye week.

Win or lose, this is the game where we see if James Vandenberg has gotten over his road-game issues and his issues against quality defenses.

Expect the Hawks to be the underdogs by at least a touchdown. Don't expect the Hawks to pull this one off.

Penn State Nittany Lions

When: Oct. 20

Where: Kinnick Stadium

All-time Record: 12-12

Kirk Ferentz's Record: 8-3

Last Meeting: 2011, 3-13

2011 Record: 9-4 (6-2)

Returning Starters: Five on offense, five on defense and both specialists

Key Playmakers: Running back Silas Redd, defensive lineman Jordan Hill and linebacker Gerald Hodges

Outlook for Iowa: Kirk Ferentz had Joe Pa's number, but Joe Pa is gone.

New PSU head coach Bill O'Brien inherits the least-experienced returning offensive line in the conference, a mess at quarterback and a depleted secondary. 

He also has the Big Ten's second-best individual running back, experienced receivers and a formidable defensive front seven.

Despite the positives, I'm expecting a bumpy first year for the new Penn State head coach.

It's difficult to say which team would be favored right now, as the Lions are currently an enigma. Also, Penn State will come into this game off a bye.

Nevertheless, on paper, this game looks to be a toss-up.

At Northwestern Wildcats

When: Oct. 27

Where: Evanston, IL

All-time Record: 46-23-3

Kirk Ferentz's Record: 5-6

Last Meeting: 2011, 41-31

2011 Record: 6-7 (3-5)

Returning Starters: Seven on offense, six on defense and both specialists

Key Playmakers: Quarterback Kain Colter, receiver/return man Mark Venric and safety Ibraheim Campbell

Outlook for Iowa: This is a tough one to call.

Northwestern will not be good in 2012. It hasn't had a running game to speak of for a number of seasons, and next season doesn't project to be any different.

It will always have a strong passing game, but it will be breaking in a new quarterback and will lose four of its top five receivers.

The defense, which was No. 10 in conference scoring defense last year, projects to be worse in 2012.

The thing is Iowa has trouble with Northwestern, as all Hawkeye fans know.

JVB should be able to shred the NU defense, but what will the NU offense be able to do to what projects to be a shaky Iowa D?

I'd call the Hawks two-point favorites in this one, which means it is only slightly better odds than a toss-up.

At Indiana Hoosiers

When: Nov. 3

Where: Bloomington, IN

All-time Record: 42-27-4

Kirk Ferentz's Record: 7-4

Last Meeting: 2011, 45-24

2011 Record: 1-11 (0-8)

Returning Starters: Nine on offense, eight on defense and both specialists

Key Playmakers: Quarterback Tre Roberson, receiver Kofi Hughes and running back Stephen Houston

Outlook for Iowa: Indiana will once again have the worst defense in the conference, but it will be better than last year's D, which let up the seventh-most points-per-game in the country.

The Hoosiers also had the No. 10 ranked scoring offense in the conference, but expect them to take major steps forward in that capacity.

True sophomore quarterback Tre Roberson has the tools to be as good as former IU signal-caller Antwaan Randle El. He won't get there this season, but he is the type of fleet-footed quarterback in the type of spread, hurry-up offense that has always given Iowa trouble.

The Hawkeyes will be favored by five-seven points.

It could get messy if they don't grab a quick lead and put Indiana away.

Nevertheless, this a game that Iowa should win, even in Bloomington.

Purdue Boilermakers

When: Nov. 10

Where: Kinnick Stadium

All-time Record: 34-45-3

Kirk Ferentz's Record: 6-3

Last Meeting: 2011, 31-21

2011 Record: 7-6 (4-4)

Returning Starters: 10 on offense, eight on defense and the punter

Key Playmakers: Running back Ralph Bolden, defensive tackle Kawann Short and cornerback Ricardo Allen

Outlook for Iowa: Purdue is a team on the precipice.

Danny Hope has been the head coach in West Lafayette for three seasons. Last year was his first bowl-eligible season. He will have to do more than get to the Little Caesar's Bowl in order to move his program forward.

That will start by regularly beating mid-tier teams like Iowa.

Next season, he will have the players to have a solid run.

It's hard to predict how Purdue will be next year, but right now, I'd give Iowa the standard home team two points.

In short, this one's a toss-up.

At Michigan Wolverines

When: Nov. 17

Where: Ann Arbor, MI

All-time Record: 13-40-4

Kirk Ferentz's Record: 5-4

Last Meeting: 2011, 24-16

2011 Record: 11-2 (6-2)

Returning Starters: Seven on offense, eight on defense and both specialists

Key Playmakers: Quarterback Denard Robinson, running back Fitzgerald Toussaint and linebacker Kenny Demens

Outlook for Iowa: Last year, Iowa beat Michigan for the third time in a row.

That is the first time in over 100 years of head-to-head competition that the Hawks have done that. The Wolverine seniors have never beaten Iowa.

The problem is that four in a row looks unlikely.

Though the entire UM defensive back seven returns, the Wolverines will be breaking in three new defensive linemen. This would benefit Iowa greatly if the game were earlier in the season. It won't help as much by the time the Hawks get to Ann Arbor.

Meanwhile, Michigan will have one of the three best offenses in the conference. Though Iowa's defense will also likely improve, it is unlikely to be a match for the powerful Michigan rushing attack.

The Hawks will enter this game as an eight to 10-point underdog.

I'd be surprised if they keep it that close.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

When: Nov. 23

Where: Kinnick Stadium

All-time Record: 9-22

Kirk Ferentz's Record: 0-3

Last Meeting: 2011, 7-20

2011 Record: 9-4 (5-3)

Returning Starters: Eight on offense, eight on defense and both specialists

Key Playmakers: Quarterback Taylor Martinez, running back Rex Burkhead and defensive lineman Cameron Meredith 

Outlook for Iowa: Bo Pelini will look for his first conference championship (Big 12 or Big Ten), though it's doubtful that this game will be the difference-maker.

The Huskers will be as staunch as they've been under Pelini, but have they reached the next level?

If they have, it will probably be tough sledding for Iowa. If they haven't, it will still be tough sledding.

I'd like to say the Hawkeye seniors leave Kinnick on a good note, but unless the defensive line plays well above its collective head, the Nebraska option attack will be near impossible to stop. And if the Hawks can't stop the option attack, they stand very little chance.

The Huskers will be favored by a touchdown. Iowa will have a puncher's chance.