Cinderella Watch: Most Likely Teams to Pull Upsets in 2012 NCAA Tournament

The NCAA tournament has started in Dayton, but this is only an appetizer for the main course beginning shortly after noon EST on Friday. Many prognosticators (most amateur) have pored over countless statistics trying to craft the perfect bracket. Of course, the hardest part of this process is picking that 14 vs. 3 upset.

The tournament has historically provided countless upsets, but statistically, rarely produces more than one upset for seeds 12 or worse. Due to this, I played the odds and chose only one team at each seeding.

16 over a Top Seed: LIU vs. Michigan State

I'm completely aware that a No. 1 seed has never lost to a 16 seed, but you have to start somewhere. More importantly, I have to pick one of the four games in keeping with the theme of upsets.

This pick is a combination of four factors. Firstly, the Blackbirds of LIU are pretty athletic.

No, really. I'm serious.

See the video above for verification of this point. Secondly, Michigan State is probably the least talented of the No. 1 seeds. Third, LIU plays an up-tempo style that Sparty doesn't see in the Big Ten. And lastly, Michigan State's guards are turnover prone, which could help LIU enforce that uptempo style.

For the record, I picked all the one seeds in every bracket I filled out, but don't be surprised if LIU bothers Tom Izzo's squad for a half.

15 Seed over a 2 Seed: Lehigh vs. Duke

This one was a bit of a toss up between Lehigh and Detroit for honor of most likely giant-killer among No. 15 seeds. I settled on Lehigh because of one simple difference: The best player in the Kansas-Detroit game is Kansas forward Thomas Robinson. The best player in the Duke-Lehigh tilt is wearing a Lehigh uniform.

Junior Lehigh guard C.J. McCollum might be the most underrated player in college basketball. The guy averages 22 PPG, 6.5 RPG and 3.5 APG. He also shoots the three at a 36 percent clip. If he can get to the rim against Duke, they might get a scare from the Mountain Hawks.

Additionally, I see Duke as being the least physically imposing No. 2 seed from an athletic standpoint. They probably won't overwhelm the Patriot League champ with fast breaks and quick six or eight-point spurts over the course of a minute. 

14 Seed over a 3 Seed: Belmont vs. Georgetown

I absolutely love this Belmont team. They are battle tested by a brutal non-conference schedule that included a one-point loss at Duke. I think they will come out ready to play and won't be intimidated by Georgetown.

The Bruins are dangerous because they have very balanced scoring, with their top-six scorers averaging between 14.1 and 8.5 PPG. This means that unlike other mid-majors that ride a star to the tournament, the Hoyas won't be able to target and shutdown one player defensively. Kerron Johnson is a very talented guard that can get in the lane and find spot up three-point gunner Ian Clark. Point guard Drew Hanlen can also shoot from deep, connecting a ridiculous 48 percent of the time.

Defensively, the Bruins employ short four-minute rotations, allowing them to keep fresh legs on the court at all times and press opponents into turnovers. This could be key against Georgetown, as they might be worn down by a deeper Belmont team in the final minutes of the this second-round matchup.

13 Seed over a 4 Seed: New Mexico State over Indiana

New Mexico State has a chance to beat Indiana because of their strong offense, coupled with Indiana's reliance on the jump shot and the injury to Verdell Jones. If Indiana can't knock down jumpers, they will have to rely on Cody Zeller to win the game for them, and relying on a freshman isn't ideal in the NCAA. 

The Aggies are a strong offensive squad, coming in with the 11th-best scoring average in the country. Without Verdell Jones to run the offense, Indiana could struggle to keep pace with the potent New Mexico State attack.

12 Seed over a 5 Seed: Long Beach State over New Mexico

The good old No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchup.

Historically this matchup has produced a lot of upsets. This year is no different, and there could be two such upsets, with 12 seed South Florida getting Temple.

I really like Long Beach State's chances to beat New Mexico. Casper Ware is a dynamic guard that can get to the basket and shoot the three. He also has a strong supporting cast that is very athletic, which will allow this team to run against a team in New Mexico that likes to slow down the pace a little bit. The return of Big West Defensive Player of the Year and second-leading scorer Larry Anderson will help this team tremendously.

11 Seed over a 6 Seed: NC State over San Diego State

The Wolfpack will win this game.

San Diego State hasn't beaten a team as good as NC State since they knocked off New Mexico in mid-January. The pack have also looked really good lately, with wins over Miami and Virginia and near-wins over Duke and North Carolina.

C.J. Leslie is a monster and will have his way in the paint along with Richard Howell. The Aztecs also won't be able to keep Lorenzo Brown out of the lane. On talent, they should come out on top.

The only cause for concern is that their rotation is only seven deep, so fatigue could be a factor in the later minutes.