BCS Championship Odds: The Favorites and the Teams Worth a Look

Adam Kramer is headed to Las Vegas for the weekend. In honor of this yearly trip that he wishes was more of the monthly variety, he will be looking at some of the intriguing betting odds when it comes to the 2012-2013 BCS National Championship. He will also be handing out horrible blackjack tips on Twitter, but you’re better off avoiding those.

March Madness is in the air, and brackets will soon be a popular topic amongst friends and coworkers. You will be forced to listen to reasoning from Joe Random on why he likes a particular 12-seed in the first round even though he couldn’t tell you the name of their coach, the mascot or a single player in the starting five. It’s a tradition unlike any other.

The masses will flock to Sin City over the next few weeks to put their basketball prowess up against the many sportsbooks situated around the town. I will be there, only I’ll likely be the lonely soul in the corner looking at the 2012-2013 BCS Championship odds over a Bloody Mary or six. Basketball is wonderful, but it just ain’t football.

Future odds like these aren’t just about football degenerates placing winter money on something that won’t be decided for nearly a full year. Well, it certainly is geared towards this, but it also says quite a bit about what the oddsmakers’ expectations are heading into a season.

I’ve assessed these championship odds as they stand at Bovada, one of the most notable online sports books, looked at the schedules (the most important piece of future betting) and came away with the following thoughts regarding the favorites and a handful of teams down the list not favored to win it all that might be worth a look. We’re not gambling on these, of course, but instead looking at this as a very important spring assessment. Yeah, that’s it.

The Favorites

LSU is the favorite at Bovada and can be yours for 19/4, aka just under 5/1. They’re certainly a deserving favorite, although the gap has closed significantly in the past few months now that more money has come in.

The Tigers take on a tough SEC schedule that features home games against Washington, South Carolina and Alabama and road trips to Auburn, Florida and a late-season tester against Arkansas. They are loaded (perfect time to plug my LSU spring preview), although the quarterback position is still a question mark. They most certainly could run the regular-season table once again, but I’m not sure 5/1 with this schedule is worth the risk.

Next is USC, who has become a hot betting item of late and could very well open up as the favorite before the season begins. They opened up at 9/1 although that number has nearly been cut in half. They’re now listed at 5/1.

On offense they are absolutely loaded, and Matt Barkley heads into 2012 as the Heisman favorite. He also has multiple targets to throw to, which is scary when thinking about the ineptitude of the Pac-12 defenses.

They’ll get Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame at home and make trips to Stanford and Washington. Although these teams are not slouches, USC should be favored in every game they play by at least four points. This isn’t indicative of potential results, but it does give an idea of what’s ahead. If you got them at 9/1, kudos. They’re still a solid option at 5/1.

College football’s current champion is the third selection on the board at 11/2. Although Alabama has recruited better than just about anyone over the past few seasons, they’re losing an incredible amount of talent to the NFL.

The Tide will also have to take on Michigan to kick off the season and make trips to Missouri, LSU and Arkansas. There aren’t too many teams that have a tougher road docket than that. They’ll be very good once again, even with a much different looking team, but 11/2 is simply not a good enough price given the schedule and major roster holes to fill.

If I were to bet a favorite, USC would make the most sense given their talent on offense and their schedule. But what’s the fun in that? I’m looking for value and MUCH better odds than the three teams on top. Lucky for us, there’s plenty of value to be had.

Those With Value

Although there are more talented teams in the SEC, Georgia might have one of the more favorable schedules in the country. And at 14/1, they’re a bet that makes sense if you’re looking for someone with a legitimate shot of making it to the title game. No LSU, no Alabama, no Arkansas, and their toughest road tests will be at Missouri and South Carolina.

Georgia is far from perfect, but quarterback Aaron Murray is certainly capable of leading them and the defense improved a great deal as last season progressed. Again, they might not even be in the top three in terms of talent/rank to begin the season in the SEC, but their path appears to be much less turbulent.

Staying in the SEC, Arkansas will have quarterback Tyler Wilson back, which is enough to consider this team a championship contender. They’ll also get back running back Knile Davis, who could be tremendous if he can stay healthy and return to form following his ankle injury.

Their schedule is far from a walk-through, but they get Alabama and LSU at home which is absolutely huge. Better yet, they’re 20/1, and a very live 20/1. 

Need something better than 20/1? Well, how about West Virginia at 30/1?

Forget about the fact that they dropped 70 on Clemson in their bowl game. Dana Hologorsen has had a full year to implement his offensive system, and he also has Geno Smith as his QB once again. Smith isn’t the most talented passer in the country, but he got better as last year went on and showcased that he was more than capable to play in this offense. 

WVU gets Oklahoma and TCU at home and will have to travel to Texas and Oklahoma State. These aren’t automatic wins by any means, but the Mountaineers have a rather manageable 2012 slate.

Although Taylor Martinez’s throwing motion says otherwise, Nebraska is currently 35/1 to win the BCS Championship. There’s a reason they are 35/1—actually, there are more than a few—but they still present a fair amount of value. 

If Martinez can improve his aerial assault at all, this team could finally have the offensive balance that they so desperately need. Running back Rex Burkhead is one of the nation’s most underappreciated players and a dark-horse Heisman candidate.

Forget personnel, however. The biggest reason Nebraska might be worth a bet is because of their schedule. They get Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State at home and will have to travel to Ohio State and Michigan State. It’s the Big Ten, and they could take advantage of a conference that has plenty of question marks.

This one feels like more of a stretch compared to the others, but that’s why they call it gambling.