Draft Impact: What If Peyton Manning Stays with the Colts After All?

Ever since the Colts got locked into the 2012 No. 1 overall pick, which gave them Andrew Luck, the eventual release of Peyton Manning has seemed like a foregone conclusion, but recent footage of Manning throwing well has surfaced, which has reportedly opened the door to Manning staying in Indianapolis after all.

Long-time NFL personnel man and NFL Network analyst Mike Lombardi talked about it on WEEI this morning:

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If Peyton is throwing better, which I’m hearing he is throwing the ball better and he does have better feeling in his arm, then now all of the sudden it becomes a different issue. Now all of the sudden, does he want to be the Indianapolis Colts?

I think now, with a new regime in place, I do believe they’re going to try to keep him there if they can. They have to protect their asset. They can’t let Peyton walk out of there and cut him and get nothing for him.

I mean to me, here’s the situation. If they release him, it costs $16 million on their cap. If they keep him, it costs $17 million on their cap. So basically, it’s a $1 million difference. The biggest difference, and this is huge for everyone to understand, is it would cost [Jim] Irsay $28 million to make that difference. So for lack of $28 million, he’s still going to count on the cap. So it’s a cash issue, not a cap issue.”

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Would Irsay pay $28 million out of pocket to keep Manning? Is there anything you could say with certainty that Irsay wouldn't do?

If Manning is kept, a whole number of dominoes could fall that directly affect the draft:

Andrew Luck

If Luck had to stay behind Manning indefinitely, there's a real chance he could follow the path of Peyton's brother Eli and another QB the Colts took No. 1 overall, John Elway—that is, he could be drafted No. 1 and never play for the team that drafted him.

All of the same teams in the market for Robert Griffin III could shift their focus to Luck, and the Rams would be a holding pattern waiting for that situation to resolve itself.

They might even have to take Griffin and hold him until a deal could be hammered out if Luck's deal isn't done before their clock at No. 2 expires.

Matt Flynn

Most sources have Cleveland and Miami as the two top destinations for Flynn, with Seattle in the mix, but Miami is also considered to be a big player for Flynn because of his connection with head coach Joe Philbin in Green Bay.

With no Peyton on the market, Dolphins owner Stephen Ross could then open the checkbook for Flynn and leave Cleveland with only Robert Griffin III to pursue via trade.

Ryan Tannehill

The Dolphins are also considered possible players for Ryan Tannehill, along with the Redskins, who are considered players for Manning. With one less QB on the open market, Tannehill, like Flynn, would become a hotter commodity, increasing the chances that he goes in the top 10 to Washington or Miami.

Kevin Kolb/John Skelton

The other team mentioned often in connection with Manning is the Cardinals. They probably wouldn't turn their focus to QB in the draft if they don't get a shot at Manning, but they might be more inclined to take another development QB later in the draft because a third roster spot at QB would be opened up. 

Even if it has gone from infinitesimal to microscopic, the chances of Manning staying in Indianapolis are going up. The football world will be reeling either way, but if he stays, we'll all be scrambling to determine the repercussions.