Matt Flynn: Why the Former Green Bay Packers QB Isn't Worth $50 Million Payday

The Green Bay Packers decision not to apply the franchise tag to backup quarterback Matt Flynn on Monday means that the fifth-year veteran will hit the free-agent market on March 13. When that date arrives, a number of NFL teams will scramble to offer Flynn a very lucrative (not to mention highly risky) long-term contract.

The Miami Dolphins are expected to be among the leading candidates to obtain Flynn's services, and Mike Berardino of the Sun-Sentinel echoes the enthusiasm of many in South Florida at the prospects of bringing the former seventh-round draft pick to South Florida, especially now that Flynn's price tag won't include sending any draft picks to the Packers.

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As I’ve consistently maintained since mid-January, Flynn is actually the safest/smartest [quarterback] play here due to his deep familiarity with Joe Philbin’s offense and the outrageous production he’s offered in three NFL auditions (two starts and a long relief appearance).

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Granted, Flynn performed very well when afforded the opportunity to take the field for the Packers, including throwing for 480 yards and six touchdowns against the Detroit Lions in last year's regular-season finale. And as Bill Barnwell of Grantland points out, that performance places Flynn in some rather select company,

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Since 1990, there has been just one performance of that caliber per season: 22 such games in 22 seasons. That's useful trivia, but what's more important is this fact about the quarterbacks who produced those 22 games: Every single one of them had either already made the Pro Bowl or would do so in the future. Twenty-two for 22.

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However, the fact remains that Flynn has started all of two games in four seasons, one of those came in a Week 17 contest that was essentially meaningless for the Packers. Plus, Flynn had the luxury of calling signals under center for one of the most talented offenses in the National Football League in those games.

Even Barnwell tempered his enthusiasm in regards to Flynn in a later piece, pointing out that it's very rare for a 26-year-old quarterback with such a limited resume at this point in his career to become a viable starting quarterback in the National Football League. Most of the so called "exceptions" to that fact (Steve Bono, Gary Danielson and David Garrard) were serviceable starters at best.

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The vast majority of players with Flynn's lack of experience through 26 failed to turn into viable pro quarterbacks. I mentioned a few exceptions, but of the 40 or so quarterbacks with a similar professional record to Flynn, only those exceptions managed to get past 600 or so additional pass attempts.

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Teams also need to look no further than last season for a cautionary tale regarding throwing tons of money at an unproven backup quarterback. In 2011, the Arizona Cardinals traded a second-round pick and cornerback Dominique-Rodgers to the Philadelphia Eagles for Kevin Kolb, who the Cardinals then signed to a five year, $63 million contract with $21 million in guaranteed money.

Kolb then proceeded to struggle through an injury marred fiasco of a first season in the desert, going 3-6 as a starter while throwing for less than 2,000 yards. Arizona's new $60 million man will now have to fight off John Skelton for the starting job for the Cardinals even if the Redbirds don't make a play for Peyton Manning, which the team may reportedly do.

Matt Flynn will absolutely have no shortage of suitors, and given the desperation that the search for that mythical "franchise" quarterback can drive NFL teams to, it's very likely that he'll land a contract worth over $50 million total. But unless Flynn can bring Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson with him, there's a very real possibility that the team that does sign Flynn will be wondering a year from now why the quarterback they have looks nothing at all like the one that was in the brochure.

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