2012 NFL Free Agency: Which NFL Teams Will Be Buyers or Savers?
Free agency will officially open on March 13, and there are a flurry of moves waiting to happen. With cuts already in the works, the money might start flying even sooner than that.
The annual spending frenzy was postponed because of the lockout last season, compressing free agency into a frenetically short period of time. Not so this season, but it is always an intriguing period of time.
Which teams are poised to make a splash on the market? Conversely, which teams are strapped for cap space? Team-by-team cap numbers are difficult to track down, so for the purposes of this article I will use the 2012 salary cap numbers compiled by Omar Kelly of the Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel before the majority of cuts and franchise tags were applied.
Let's take a look at the spending picture from a divisional point of view.
NFC East
1 of 8Dallas Cowboys
Jerry Jones spends money every bit as much as Dan Snyder, only his signings do not tend to fail spectacularly in the same way.
This offseason should be no different for the Cowboys, who will have anywhere between $12.6 and $20 million to spend at free agency's inception.
Verdict: Spenders
New York Giants
What is the quickest way to sober up after a Super Bowl victory? Looking at your team's bleak salary cap issue. The Giants were one of a few teams projected to be over the cap going into the offseason, meaning they will not be active in free agency.
Without some serious restructuring or hefty cuts, guys like Mario Manningham will seek their riches elsewhere.
Verdict: Savers
Philadelphia Eagles
Whereas the Dream Team was assembled last offseason, this year should be far more subdued in Philadelphia. The Eagles used their franchise tag on DeSean Jackson, eating into their available cap space, but they might still be in the market for a receiver if they can deal the mercurial wide receiver.
Even with some cap space, a thin market at positions of need—linebacker, defensive tackle and even wide receiver now do not have many marquee free agents—could mean the Eagles will look to address those positions in the draft.
Verdict: Savers
Washington Redskins
Dan Snyder and the Redskins were surprisingly restrained in free agency last season. This year? With a lot of cap space to fill, I expect Snyder's frugal ways to go the way of the dinosaur.
Starting with Peyton Manning and ending with Vincent Jackson, perhaps, the Redskins have the guns and the ammunition to make a free agent splash.
Verdict: Spenders
NFC South
2 of 8Atlanta Falcons
As bitterly disappointing as their recent quick playoff exits have been for the Falcons, they are in a great position to improve their fortunes with some cheese to spend in free agency.
With major needs at left tackle and guard, Atlanta might be gearing up for a serious run at Carl Nicks and Jared Gaither, two talented offensive linemen who will command serious pay days in the coming weeks.
Verdict: Spenders
Carolina Panthers
After shelling out big bucks to re-sign DeAngelo Williams and Charles Johnson last season, the Panthers do not have much to spend this season. Being one of the few teams that had to snip their way down to the cap, they will likely look to improve via the draft.
Verdict: Savers
New Orleans Saints
With the turmoil surrounding the Saints right now and their struggle to retain Drew Brees, Carl Nicks, Marques Colston, and even Robert Meachem, they will not be doing much spending on the open market unless the latter trio escape.
Verdict: Savers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa/St. Petersburg Swashbucklers entered last year's free agency period with a ton of cap space. The crickets proceeded to chirp as they steered clear of any major free agent activity, somewhat puzzlingly for a young team looking to build on the previous year's success.
Perhaps there was a method to their madness, however, since last year's cap savings ($25 million) can be rolled over to this year, giving them an enormous amount of cap space to play with.
The Bucs have a young team, great draft position, and a ton of money to spend. Look for them to use it all to their benefit.
Verdict: Big Spenders
NFC North
3 of 8Chicago Bears
New general manager. New offensive coordinator. Tons of cap space.
What more could a team ask for without going into full rebuilding mode?
The Bears have a quarterback—depending on who you ask, of course—and a franchise running back to build around on offense, and a veteran defense that needs a few pieces.
Utilizing the franchise tag on Forte eats into the team's cap space, but they should still have plenty enough to make a run at some offensive line, wide receiver, linebacker or safety help.
Does Vincent Jackson fancy himself in dark blue?
Verdict: Spenders
Detroit Lions
With a playoff run under this young team's belt, Jim Schwartz looks to take them to the next level. Unfortunately, there is not a lot of spending money in Detroit this year, so they will have to address their needs via the draft.
Verdict: Savers
Green Bay Packers
After giving up the Super Bowl Champion moniker, the Packers find themselves looking to fill several holes, particularly on defense. Sadly, the Packers started the offseason in the bottom third of the league in terms of cap space.
Given that the Packers will need to spend some of that signing their rookies, my guess is they will not be spending a ton of money and try to improve via the draft.
Verdict: Savers
Minnesota Vikings
Lucky for the Vikings that they have excellent draft position this year because they have a lot of needs and little money. Fortunately, they will be able to save some money with cuts, leaving them with just enough to sign one big player while addressing several needs via the draft.
Minnesota is a potential landing spot for Brandon Carr or any one of the wide receivers on the market. Jared Gaither or Demetrius Bell may be a possibility at left tackle for them, but they may opt to address that position with the third pick of the draft.
Verdict: Moderate Spenders
NFC West
4 of 8Arizona Cardinals
Cap flexibility is all but gone in Arizona with the Cardinals expending their franchise tag on Calais Campbell.
Of course, if they wanted to sign a certain MVP quarterback, they can always cut bait with Kevin Kolb, who is due another $7 million on March 17 on top of the $12 million he has already been promised for 2012.
Barring that quarterback swap, though, I do not see the Cardinals spending much money this offseason.
Verdict: Savers
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers were a couple of bad bounces away from the Super Bowl in Jim Harbaugh's incredibly successful debut. Now they have a ton of cap room to improve upon their NFC Championship Game roster.
Wide receiver is a huge need on offense, but the market has dried up to a certain extent with teams applying their franchise tags on some of the big names.
San Francisco is looking to lock up Alex Smith despite Peyton Manning's impending availability, and they will likely look to fill a few holes with big free agent signings as well.
Verdict: Big Spenders
Seattle Seahawks
Even after re-signing Marshawn Lynch to a big deal, the Seahawks are in a good position to spend money. Seattle still needs to re-sign Red Bryant, which will eat away some more of the cap.
It may be a long shot, but the Seahawks should have enough to make Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne good offers. Seattle is reportedly uninterested in Matt Flynn, but he may be a fallback if they lose out on Manning and get desperate.
Verdict: Spenders
St. Louis Rams
Sam Bradford needs help. Everywhere.
After a great rookie season, Bradford's sophomore slump took many by surprise. Part of that is on Bradford, and another part is on Josh McDaniels, but a heaping helping of the blame goes to the offensive line and wide receivers, aside from mid-season acquisition Brandon Lloyd.
With a new coaching staff in town, the priority needs to be protecting the quarterback and getting him receivers who do not drop every other pass. They also have some cornerback needs, but getting a few back from their six on injured reserve should help.
The Rams will start free agency with about $12-13 million to spend, but the draft will eat up a big chunk of that. They could create more room with cuts and salary restructuring, however, meaning they could still be active on the market.
Verdict: Moderate Spenders
AFC East
5 of 8Buffalo Bills
Stevie got his wish, re-signing with the Bills with a big contract. Buffalo is not finished.
Rumor has it the Bills are pursuing Vincent Jackson as well. That would make quite the 1-2 punch in Buffalo. Ryan Fitzpatrick must be in a constant state of giddiness thinking about this.
How could they do it? By rolling over $19 million of cap space from last season. While imprudent on the surface, the Bills ran the most four-receiver sets last season, a stat courtesy of Mike Clay at Pro Football Focus.
Of course, receiver is not the only position of need for the Bills. Buffalo could go after some defensive or offensive line help as well.
Verdict: Spenders
Miami Dolphins
Jeff Ireland has a fair amount of cap space to play with and some potential cuts to help the cause. The question is whether it will land them the big fish or have them floundering elsewhere.
The Dolphins have been at the forefront of quarterback speculation, with Peyton Manning being the jewel of free agency for Stephen Ross. Matt Flynn could also be a possibility.
Either way, if the Dolphins get their wish they will be spending much of their cap space on one player—unless he is willing to play for cheap. If they do not get their wish, well, calls for Ireland's head might be renewed with vigor and Miami would be left scrambling yet again.
Verdict: Spenders
New England Patriots
Crestfallen as Patriots fans may be after another Super Bowl loss, their predictably good offseason position should be cause for happiness. As has become the norm, the Patriots are in an enviable position—a ton of cap space and plenty of high draft picks coming off a Super Bowl appearance.
That cap space will be used, but likely with caution. The last time Bill Belichick made free agency splashes the Patriots signed Adalius Thomas.
Verdict: Spenders
New York Jets
Despite all the offseason spending bluster, the Jets do not have the cap space to do much. They were very nearly above the cap going into the offseason.
New York will look to restructure contracts like they did with D'Brickshaw Ferguson to create more cap space, but a good deal of that savings will go towards signing rookies.
Verdict: Savers
AFC South
6 of 8Houston Texans
Last season's AFC South champions will be hard-pressed to keep their own free agents, even after signing Arian Foster to a long-term deal. Chris Myers and Mario Williams are set to bolt if Houston cannot re-sign them, and they will have used up their cap space in the process.
Verdict: Savers
Indianapolis Colts
Peyton Manning's release is the end of an era in Indianapolis. They move forward in full rebuilding mode for 2012. Fortunately they have Andrew Luck in hand. We should all be so lucky to have such quarterback stability for decades.
Much like the Vikings, the Colts have a lot of holes with a moderate amount to spend. They recently re-signed Robert Mathis to a long-term, five-year deal worth $35 million, the same deal that Pierre Garçon inexplicably turned down.
The Colts are going to need some offensive linemen to protect Luck and serious defensive upgrades before they are competitive again. Again, they are in rebuilding mode—the operation will go in stages.
Verdict: Moderate Spenders
Jacksonville Jaguars
Blaine Gabbert needs somebody–anybody–to throw to. The Jaguars will look to sign a free agent receiver or two to help remedy that situation.
Unfortunately, many of the big names were tagged as franchise players, leaving a thin market. Vincent Jackson, Mario Manningham and Robert Meachem are all names to look out for in Jacksonville. They will likely look to the draft as well.
Outside of a receiver, the Jaguars could use help at defensive end and cornerback. Mario Williams has been mentioned as a free agent target, and the Jaguars could go after Cortland Finnegan or Brandon Carr as well.
Jacksonville rolled over the most 2011 cap space at $31.6 million, giving Shahid Khan and Gene Smith plenty of money to play with.
Verdict: Big Spenders
Tennessee Titans
Despite the notion Cortland Finnegan is leaving, the Titans certainly have enough cap space to re-sign him to a big contract, even after giving CJ1K a big extension last year and applying the franchise tag to safety Michael Griffin.
The problem for the Titans is they have a lot of money to spend in the wrong places.
Aside from perhaps Mario Williams at defensive end, their biggest needs are at center and safety, both positions without big names requiring big contracts. This means they may opt to use their space on their current players.
Verdict: Spenders
AFC North
7 of 8Baltimore Ravens
After being a dropped pass and perhaps missed field goal away from the Super Bowl, the Ravens find themselves in a good position—few real holes to fill, albeit with an aging defense to consider.
Their biggest needs are along the offensive line. Could Jared Gaither be returning to Baltimore? Perhaps they will make a run at Carl Nicks.
No player is more important to their defense than Ray Lewis, but he is no spring chicken. It is a marvel that he is playing at such a high level at 35—he will be 36 this May—but they may be looking to address that issue in the draft or down the line.
Verdict: Spenders
Cincinnati Bengals
Ladies and gentlemen, I present you the team with the most cap space: the Cincinnati Bengals, with about $58 million to spend going into the offseason.
Michael Bush has long been rumored to be a Bengals target, and the move makes a lot of sense. Even if they overpay, they have so much cap room it will not matter.
Cincinnati might be looking to pair A.J. Green with another great receiver as well, making any one of the free agents a potential target.
The Bengals have a few free agents of their own they may look to retain as well, namely Reggie Nelson and Manny Lawson.
Verdict: Big Spenders
Cleveland Browns
If the Browns swing and miss on trading up for Robert Griffin III, they may be ponying up to pay Matt Flynn. Fortunately, they have plenty of cap space to spend that kind of money and still address other needs.
They may also be a dark horse for Mario Williams' services as they need a defensive end.
Verdict: Spenders
Pittsburgh Steelers
You know you have cap issues when you are frantically making cuts in a vain attempt to get under the cap in time to apply the franchise tag.
The Steelers were only able to tender Mike Wallace with a first round RFA tender, meaning they will be sweating free agency out. Unfortunately for them, they do not have money to use during free agency.
Verdict: Savers
AFC West
8 of 8Denver Broncos
After rolling over nearly $28 million in salary cap space from last season, the Broncos are poised to have a spending spree. The question is are they going to spend up to the cap after spending 98 percent of their cash budget last season?
Truth be told, the Broncos are going to have a fight on their hands just to keep their own free agents, namely Joe Mays and Broderick Bunkley. Even if they can keep them both, however, they should have enough to be active on the free agent market.
Verdict: Spenders
Kansas City Chiefs
Even after picking up Stanford Routt and tagging Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs are in excellent position to make serious moves this offseason. They rolled over $24 million worth of cap space from last season, giving them over $50 million to spend before recent free agent and franchise tag activity.
Many say Brandon Carr is a goner now that Routt is on board, but the Chiefs might have enough cheese to keep both with money to spare.
Kansas City needs to upgrade at several positions, namely quarterback, defensive tackle and offensive line. They have an outside shot of landing Peyton Manning, but failing that they need to be aggressive in free agency and have a great draft.
Verdict: Big Spenders
Oakland Raiders
They might as well be called Oakland In-the-Redders with the $145 million in commitments they had before starting to trim salary.
The Raiders cut Routt one year into a five-year commitment in part because of their salary cap woes. Oakland will be able to slash salaries to get under the cap, but they will not be on the spending spectrum this offseason.
Verdict: Savers
San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have a fair amount of cap space, but they are looking to re-sign Vincent Jackson. Should they fail in that regard, they will likely do a bit of spending on the market.
They may try to re-sign Jared Gaither after successfully plugging him in at left tackle, but he might be too rich for their blood.
Verdict: Moderate Spenders
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