Should LeBron James' Late-Game Woes Cost Him the MVP Award?

LeBron James is perhaps presenting one of the most extraordinary cases in the history of the NBA MVP race. Never before have we seen such an extreme split personality between a dominant player for most of the game and a player who is so reluctant to dominate when the game is on the line. 

As far as the dominant James, he is an extraordinary, truly special player. His player efficiency rating (PER) for the season is 33.2—the highest in the history of the game. The dominant James is not only the most dominant player now, he's arguably the most dominant player ever. 

Elsewhere, there is another player, Kevin Durant, who has a merely "typical" MVP-type season with a PER of 27.6 in normal minutes, but has been special during the moments when the game is on the line. 

First, let's compare what the players do per 36 minutes in the "clutch," which is defined as up or down by five, with five minutes left in the fourth quarter or overtime. 

Player	FG	FGA	FT	FTA	PTS	AST	TRB	TS%
LeBron James	7.1	17.6	12.0	16.9	26.8	9.9	14.1	53.4
Kevin Durant	13.3	30.4	12.9	14.1	42.9	0.9	10.1	58.5

There are two things worth noting here. First, Durant is by far a better scorer when the game is in clutch situations. Second, James is producing just as many points as Durant is when you take into account his passing. If you determine that those nine extra assists per game account for 18 points, that more than makes up the difference in 16 points of scoring between the two. 

So, if you are factoring "clutch" as team up or down by five points or less, then the conversation is more or less a wash, and there certainly isn't enough for Durant to surpass James for MVP. 

What gets more interesting, though, is when you pry deeper into the clutch statistics. When the team is down versus ahead, and when the minutes are cut down, James starts to disappear. 

Here is what the two players have done with three minutes and down by five points or less. These are total stats on the season. 

Player	FG	FGA	FT	FTA	PTS	AST	TRB
LeBron James	3	10	3	5	10	1	3
Kevin Durant	10	28	5	5	28	0	2

This is a somewhat startling number. This season, when his team has trailed by five points or less with three minutes or less in the game, LeBron James has made three shots and three free throws for a total of 10 points. What's more startling is that fully half of those points, and two of those shots, came in last night's game against the Utah Jazz.

Even if you factor in assists, Durant has doubled James' production when the game is on the line.

Where there is even more of a difference is when the game is on the line. When the time is to tie or take the lead. When there are 24 seconds or less remaining in the game, on shots to tie or take the lead, Durant has made an NBA-high five field goals on 11 attempts. His effective field-goal percentage is .500 in those situations.

His team has won all five of the games where he has made that shot. 

LeBron James has attempted only one shot, and missed it. He does have one game-winning assist, though. 

This is where the conversation gets dicey. On the one hand, you can't dismiss that James has been a huge part of the reason for the Heat even being in a lot of games. Last night, without his enormous 18-point explosion in the fourth quarter, the Heat aren't even in the game to take a game-winning shot. 

On the other hand, Durant had a similar 18-point explosion in the fourth quarter against the Orlando Magic on Thursday night. The difference is his team won. 

Durant, through his closing shooting, has turned five losses into wins. James has turned one tie into a win through an assist, and nothing else.

So now the question is, what does value mean? Does it mean performing like a monster through 46-47 minutes of the game? Or does it mean closing out games and carrying your team in the clutch to win games?

This the inevitable debate which will define this year's MVP. How much does "clutch" matter and should it define the debate to the point of precluding all other conversation? On one hand, we're talking about a swing of four or five games here. On the other, we're talking about a dozen plays determining the MVP winner. It's an intriguing question, and one for now I'm not sure I've settled an answer on. 

One thing is for certain: it will make for some interesting debate down the stretch.