Words with Frenz: AFC East Mailbag, 3/2 Edition

With free agency and the NFL Draft right around the corner, questions and curiosity are running at an all-time high.

How do I know this? The mailbag filled up rather quickly this week, just over an hour after I put out the APB for questions. It was all on the table this week, and though I may not have all the answers all the time, I can at least offer some insight.

So here we go.

"

@ErikFrenz Would the Dolphins draft Ryan Tannehill if available with the 8th pick?

— Matthew Stein (@MatthewJStein) March 2, 2012"

Peyton Manning is No. 1 on the Dolphins' hypothetical Christmas list. Whether the team drafts a quarterback likely revolves around the team's ability to land Manning.

If so, the first pick would likely be used on an offensive lineman to protect him, as Vernon Carey is set to become a free agent and the team has needs on the interior of the offensive line as it is.

If it comes to a decision between Packers free agent-to-be quarterback Matt Flynn and a quarterback in the first round, that's where it becomes a bit less clear.

Draft history tells us the Dolphins will not target a quarterback in the first round, but that really doesn't mean anything.

The Dolphins have had plenty of opportunities to draft a quarterback in the first round since Dan Marino retired in 2000, and haven't done so.

Whatever the Dolphins do, they need to find a long-term answer at quarterback—I don't think any Dolphins fans want to suffer through 16 more quarterbacks in a 12-year span.

"

@ErikFrenz With Cortland Finnegan hitting FA, would the Pats take a look? It seems like the Pats D has lost their mean side and he brings it

— Brendan Greeley (@Brendan89) March 2, 2012"

Ah, conflicting reports. First, Jason La Canfora tweets that it's likely the Titans will place the franchise tag on Cortland Finnegan. Minutes later, Adam Schefter fires back with info that the Titans will not tag him. Madness ensues.

Regardless, I don't see cornerback as the gigantic, pressing need for the Patriots everyone else does. Devin McCourty had a down year, but he showed what he's capable of in 2010. 2012 will be a make-or-break year for him, to be sure, but I'm not ruling him out yet.

Kyle Arrington had a league-leading seven interceptions in 2011 and has long since proven he belongs in the mix for significant snaps.

And don't forget about the return of Ras-I Dowling. He looked great last year in very limited time, and is expected to come back at full health.

If the Patriots are going to add a cornerback, it would be as an insurance policy against McCourty, should his struggles continue. I don't see them investing big bucks at the position.

"

@ErikFrenz how impt is determining base D (3-4 / 4-3) for 2012 when assessing FA #Patriots will target? When do they need to decide on D?

— Tom P (@tp546) March 2, 2012"

Patriots defensive scheme question? If you're going to throw me a 90-mph fast ball over the middle of the plate, you know I'm swinging for the fences like Barry Bonds. Only, you know, without the steroid controversy.

And the "controversy" over the 3-4 and 4-3 alignment is sure to catch a lot of attention this offseason. Will the Patriots stick with the base 4-3, where they were finally able to answer their pass-rush woes, or will they go back to the bread-and-butter 3-4 that head coach Bill Belichick has typically run?

There's no exact date that they have to decide by, and though you might assume the Patriots will decide before picking their players in free agency and the draft, we've heard Belichick say in the past that scheme is a function of personnel just as the opposite is true.

There are a couple of important clues to think about here.

The first is that Belichick installed the 4-3 because of the lockout-shortened offseason in 2011; if he had more time to install his preferred scheme, the Patriots might have stuck with it. That might indicate a switch back in 2012.

A large reason behind the success of the 4-3, though, was Andre Carter. His ability to rush the passer (10 sacks in 13.5 games) and set the edge in run defense were essential. My good friend Mike Dussault of Pats Propaganda touched on this awhile back, calling it a "perfect storm" for the Patriots, and I have to agree.

It's important not to put too much stock in one player, but you have to think the status of Andre Carter—in terms of health and contract—will play a role in the decision-making process. But the Patriots run a mix, so I would expect to see more of that.

"

@ErikFrenz #jets everyone keeps talking about @Mark_Sanchez regression but nobody mentions the loss of his WR as the cause why is that?

— Andrew D. Parrish (@MRHELLAHANDS0ME) March 2, 2012"

Beats me, Andrew. But I think the Jets realize the mistake, as there have been rumors (per Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News) that the team would be interested in bringing back former Jets receiver Braylon Edwards.

Don't forget about Jerricho Cotchery, who was a favorite target of Sanchez's in his first two years.

A quarterback needs time to develop chemistry with his receivers. That being said, while Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery were two of Sanchez's favorite targets (accounting for 395 total targets out of 871 attempts, for 45.4 percent of his targets), Sanchez threw entirely too many interceptions when targeting them (23 of his 33 interceptions, for 69.7 percent).

But I wouldn't exactly call it a regression, though. He improved in every statistical category last year—but as Belichick says, "stats are for losers." It's Sanchez's decision making and on-field leadership that concerns me. 

"

@ErikFrenz #WordsWithFrenz Hey Erik, which pass-rusher do you think best fits the #Bills, either at 10 or later? Thanks.

— Josh Cembellin (@JoshCembellin) March 2, 2012"

The great thing about the Bills in the draft is that they don't have to worry about murky details with a player converting from a 4-3 defensive end in college to a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL. That eliminates one of the trickiest parts of the evaluation process when it comes to pass rushers.

I'm not as big of a fan of Melvin Ingram as some others are. The Bills know all too well what it means to try to fit a square peg into a round hole (see Aaron Maybin) and we've seen the adverse effect that short arms can have on a talented pass rusher (see Jerry Hughes).

With that in mind, I'd go with either USC defensive end Nick Perry or UNC defensive end Quinton Coples. Both proved their ability to rush the passer and set the edge against the run, which are really the only two things you need to be able to do as an end in the 4-3, and defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt said that's really what he's looking for in his ends.

Both of them are your prototypical 4-3 defensive ends in terms of size and skill set, though Perry is a bit smaller than you might like. He came to the combine at 271 pounds, which should help his stock, but at just under 6'3", he might have a tough time going up against bigger offensive tackles in the AFC East (see D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Sebastian Vollmer, Nate Solder, Jake Long and Demetrius Bell).

The problem with Coples is his motor. Will he give you everything he has on Sundays, or will he check in and out depending on the situation and game? That's a serious concern, and one that I'm sure the team did their diligence to get the answer to at the combine.

In terms of skill alone, I don't think the Bills could go wrong with either. Which one they go with, though, will be a direct reflection on their evaluation.

All right, guys, that's all I have for you this week. Thanks for your questions, and as always, feel free to shoot me any questions or thoughts you might have via either the comments section or Twitter (link below).

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