Why Trent Richardson Shouldn't Be a Top-15 Pick in the 2012 NFL Draft

Trent Richardson should not be taken in the first 15 picks of the 2012 NFL Draft.

I am bound to take some heat for this one, but it's something I truly believe.  

That statement isn't a testament to myself not believing in Richardson's ability or draft prospectus as a 5'11'', 215-pound bulldozing runner with tremendous athleticism and speed, it's about his position and the trending style of play in today's NFL. 

Regardless of the type of running back, the value simply is no longer there in the top of the first round. 

Heck, the value may not be there in the first round at all.

Injuries are so prevalent and shelf life is so agonizingly short, taking a first-round gamble on even an "elite" running back in this aerial renaissance would be misguided. 

Sure, some teams like the Cincinnati Bengals (the team I have Richardson going to in my most recent mock draft) would love to inject youth into their backfield and will likely become enamored with the Alabama star if they haven't already placed him near the top of their draft board.

But that's not the point.

If it were based on talent and collegiate productivity alone, Richardson wouldn't get past the first five picks.  

Look at the teams in this year's top-10, even the top-15. 

After the Cleveland Browns,(a team with an odd running back situation on their hands due to the uncertain future of Madden cover boy and wanna be CIA agent Peyton Hillis) which team instantly gets better by drafting Richardson with their first pick? 

I'm not even sure the Browns get better. They NEED premier receiving talent. Badly. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a young punishing runner in LeGarrette Blount. They also have one of the most porous defenses in the NFL and play in a division with Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. A defender makes much more sense and represents far better value.

The St. Louis Rams would be giddy to acquire a runner to learn the running back ropes from beat up veteran Steven Jackson, but are they really in a position to do so with all the gaping holes on their roster? 

The Jacksonville Jaguars have Maurice Jones-Drew. 

Carolina has plenty of money invested in their backfield duo of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. 

The Miami Dolphins used their second-round pick in 2011 on running back Daniel Thomas and are hoping he can take on feature back duties in 2011. Oh yeah, Reggie Bush is there, too.

The Buffalo Bills are content with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller and have said they want to extend Jackson so he can retire in Buffalo. 

Marshawn Lynch, after a "beastly" season in Seattle, should get an extension, or at least the franchise tag from the Seahawks.

There's a chance the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that doesn't have a ridiculous amount of holes, takes a chance, but Jamaal Charles should return to 100 percent from his early-season knee injury. 

The Arizona Cardinals have their big-bodied runner in Beanie Wells and need help elsewhere, right Cardinals fans? 

No way the Dallas Cowboys take him—they need defensive help and depth along their offensive line. Some say the New York Jets would be a great candidate for Richardson, but I see Rex Ryan adding to a defense that certainly underwhelmed in 2011.

That leaves the Cincinnati Bengals, a team with the No. 17 overall pick that could use more offensive fire-power and has a free agent runner who's likely on his way out. 

This year's specific draft order isn't the main factor that leads me to believe Richardson shouldn't be picked until at least No. 16 overall, recent draft history is.

Let's begin with the 2008 draft, right around the time passing statistics began to "spike" in the NFL.

Darren McFadden was picked No. 4 overall to the Oakland Raiders.

No one has ever questioned his otherworldly athleticism or instincts as a runner. But his four year career in the league has been riddled with injuries and he's only eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark once.

Jonathan Stewart, the No. 13 overall pick that year, has been relatively successful, but he too, has only surpassed the 1,000-yard mark on one occasion.

Felix Jones, No. 22 overall—injuries.

The haunting injury bug hit No. 23 overall pick Rashard Mendenhall of the Pittsburgh Steelers late this season.

In April of 2009, the Denver Broncos made Knowshon Moreno the first running back taken at No. 13 overall. He has battled a slew of injuries early in his career.

Same goes for No. 27 overall selection Donald Brown, who has been somewhat of an afterthought in Indianapolis.

In 2010, the Bills grabbed C.J. Spiller at No. 9 overall. Until the last five games of the 2011 season, he was relegated to a back-up role and was deemed as a major disappointment.

No. 12 overall choice Ryan Mathews has fought through a few injuries and seems to be on his way to a solid career in San Diego.

The 30th pick in that draft, Jahvid Best, has had a hard time staying on the field in Detroit.

We saw teams start to catch on last year, when Richardson's former teammate, the "can't-miss" Mark Ingram wasn't picked until No. 28 overall. 

His rookie year was marred by...you guessed it, injuries. 

Nothing against these players, they're seemingly good kids and have all the talent in the world. Remember, they can't decide when they're selected.

Even Adrian Peterson, who went No. 7 overall in 2007, a college running back as gifted as any, has dealt with a myriad of injuries early in his prolific career. 

You see, teams now realize they can get production out of those mid-to-late round guys and still field a turbo-charged, pass-happy offense that scores a lot of points. 

Because of that, and due to the order in which the teams will pick on April 26th, Trent Richardson should, maybe unfairly, not be chosen until after the first 15 names have been called. 

Even after that, based on history and today's NFL, teams would better serve their franchises by filling a void at a position other than running back.

Follow @ChrisTrapasso