UFC 144: Thoughts on Edgar vs. Henderson and Every Fight

On February 26th, the best fight card of the year will take place in Japan. This card is loaded with excitement, which may be surprising since most of the fights contain Japanese fighter, who as a group have underperformed in the UFC. Still, this card should provide plenty of entertainment for fans.

The main card currently contains seven fights, so there is plenty of quantity to go along with the quality of the fights. Here are my thoughts on every fight taking place at this event. Assisting me are the player profiles found on sherdog.com. The fights are ranked and displayed in order of perceived excitement. So the fight I believe to be the most anticipated is found at the bottom.

12. Tiequan Zhang vs. Issei Tamura (Featherweight)

This battle has been dubbed the least fascinating of the 12 bouts. Zhang is 1-1 in the UFC and also 1-1 in the WEC. Overall he has a stellar record of 15-2. Zhang has 12 wins by submission and has never been finished.

Zhang is looking to get back on track after dropping a decision back in October. He has not strung together consecutive wins since his WEC debut against Pablo Garza. Therefore, he has not gained much traction from within the division.

Issei is getting the chance of a lifetime, making his UFC debut with only a 6-2 overall record. Furthermore, he has only finished one of his six victories, against weaker competition. This fight will be a huge test, and it will be difficult to decipher his game until he appears in the cage.

I was getting all excited about a Zhang vs. Nam Phan battle, but this is the fight that made the card.

Issei cannot be counted out—anything could happen—but I just see him being overwhelmed. Zhang has plenty of experience to pick up the win.

11. Riki Fukuda vs. Steve Cantwell (Middleweight)

Both of these competitors find themselves at the bottom of the middleweight division. Cantwell is 1-4 since coming to the UFC from the WEC. He has lost four fights in a row. Furthermore, only one of his four losses has come against an opponent ranked amongst the top 15 in his division; that was Brian Stann.

A loss at UFC 144 will most certainly result in Cantwell being cut. Cantwell is only 7-5 overall, although he was 7-1 when he entered the UFC. Cantwell has finished all of his seven victories.

Fukuda is 17-5 in his career; he lost to an unbeaten Nick Ring in his first and only UFC fight. More than 50 percent of Fukuda's wins have come by decision. However, he has only been knocked out once and has never been submitted.

I will take Fukuda in this first fight; Cantwell will be released shortly after. Cantwell has only won by finish, and Fukuda does not get finished, so I see him outlasting his opponent and coming out victorious.

10. Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto vs. Vaughan Lee (Bantamweight)

"Kid" Yamamoto's entrance to the UFC was highly anticipated. However, the Japanese import has disappointed in his two fights, losing both. It could be argued that Yamamoto has only remained on the roster so he could fight on this card in Japan.

Overall, Yamamoto is 18-5. He has won by TKO/KO on 13 occasions. Yamamoto has only been finished once. Yamamoto has good stand up and will be performing before a home audience.

Lee is only 11-7 in his career. He lost his UFC debut to Chris Cariaso, who is also fighting on this card. Lee has finished all but one of his victories, six of those wins have come by submission.

This is Yamamotot's fight to lose, he will have the crowd before him and a loss will definitely mean his removal from the UFC.

9. Takanori Gomi vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (Lightweight)

This fight features a couple of post-30 Japanese lightweights. Gomi has 32 wins in his career to go along with eight losses. Despite his stellar record, Gomi has struggled in the UFC. He is only 1-3 since coming to the promotion. However, all three of his losses came against staunch competition: Kenny Florian, Clay Guida and Nate Diaz.

His win was a first-round knockout of former title contender Tyson Griffin. Gomi may suffer from Akiyama syndrome: only receiving tough matches, making it easy to rack up losses. Five of Gomi's defeats have come by submission, including all three of his UFC losses.

Mitsuoka is replacing George Sotiropoulos. He is 36 and will be making his UFC debut. He has an overall record of 18-7. He has won by submission on 11 occasions.

Gomi could really use a win, having lost two in a row. He has a good chance facing a UFC newcomer who is getting old. However, Gomi has shown a weakness to submissions and that happens to be Mitsuoka's strength. This is potentially disastrous for Gomi. Still, I have Takanori knocking out his countryman before this fight gets to the ground.

8. Takeya Mizugaki vs. Chris Cariaso (Bantamweight)

Another fight, another Japanese fighter. Mizugaki is a veteran of the UFC and WEC. His record is 15-6-2. He is 4-4 in the UFC and WEC. His only losses have come to top 10 bantamweights: Miguel Torres, Scott Jorgensen, Urijah Faber and Brian Bowles. Suffice to say, Mizugaki finds himself in the middle of the pack of the bantamweight division.

Cariaso is 12-3. He has a record of 3-2 while fighting under the UFC and WEC banners. Cariaso has won eight fights by decision, two by TKO/KO and two by submission. Cariaso has only defeated one opponent who still remains in the UFC.

I will choose Mizugaki. He has fought tougher competition and defeated more highly touted opponents.

7. Cheick Kongo vs. Mark Hunt (Heavyweight)

This is the first fight found on this event's main card. Kongo is a consensus top 10 heavyweight. However, after dismantling a rising Matt Mitrione, Kongo is given Mark Hunt. Kongo is 10-4-1 in his UFC career.

In his last four fights, Kongo has won three and also recorded a draw with fellow top 10 heavyweight Travis Browne. Before that, Kongo lost two to Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir. Kongo has won 10 of his 17 fights by TKO/KO. Kongo's strength is his kickboxing. However, he has been improving his ground game and wrestling.

Hunt is only 7-7 in his MMA career but is on a two-fight win streak. He is 2-1 in the UFC. Prior to his recent streak, Hunt dropped six in a row dating back to the summer of 2006; fights included losses to Josh Barnett, Fedor Emelianenko, Alistair Overeem and Gegard Mousasi.

More than half of Hunt's wins have come by TKO/KO. He has been a professional boxer and kick boxer in the past. Six of his seven losses have come by submission. Unfortunately, Kongo only has three wins by submission, so it is not likely he will take advantage of Hunt's weakness.

This fight should stay off the ground with two strikers going at it. However, it may be advantageous for Kongo to take Hunt down. I'm picking Kongo to win because he is the more experienced mixed martial artist and holds an advantage both standing and on the ground.

6. Yushin Okami vs. Tim Boetsch (Middleweight)

This is Okami's first fight since losing to Anderson Silva. Okami is 26-6 in his career; he is 10-3 in the UFC. His only defeats in the UFC have come by Silva, Chael Sonnen and Rich Franklin in his prime. His previous loss before succumbing to Franklin was to Jake Shields. Prior to losing his chance at the title, Okami had won three in a row, including victories over Nate Marquardt and Mark Munoz.

Okami is a great grappler and wrestler. Perhaps consequently, Okami has won 12 of his fights by decision, another nine by TKO/KO, four by submission and of course that win over Anderson Silva by disqualification.

Boetsch, the former light heavyweight, has an overall record of 14-4. His UFC record is 8-3. Only three of Boetsch's wins have come by decision. However, all of those decisions have come in The Barbarian's latest three victories.

Boetsch has big power in his hands and has also shown good acumen on the ground and in the clinch, showing off some impressive judo-like throws. He does not, however, have a marquee win on his resume. He will be looking for exactly that against Okami. A win would put him on the fast track in the middleweight division.

This is an incredibly intriguing match up. Boetsch has a diverse game, having both power and good grappling ability. He has not lost in nearly three years, when he was defeated by Phil Davis.

Unfortunately, Boetsch is coming up against a larger opponent and a stronger grappler in Okami. I just see Okami keeping Boetsch outside, setting up takedowns, maintaining top position and winning a decision victory.

5. Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart Palaszewski (Featherweight)

For many, Hioki has taken up the mantle left by Chad Mendes as the No. 2 featherweight behind champ Jose Aldo. He has had a long career already, amassing a record of 25-4-2. He has finished 16 of his victories, and 10 of those have been by submission (mostly triangle chokes and armbars). Hioki himself has never been knocked out or submitted.

Hioki's UFC debut was highly anticipated. However, he disappointed in his fight with George Roop, winning by split decision. Despite the disappointment, the thin upper echelon of the featherweight division has left the door open for Hioki to obtain a title shot with a win.

Bartimus is 1-0 in the UFC, upsetting an overweight Tyson Griffin last fall. He now has the chance to defeat a consensus top three featherweight and steal his title shot.

Palaszewski has an overall record of 36-14 and has finished 28 fights. Ten of Bart's 14 losses have been by decision; he does not get finished often. He, like his opponent, is a BJJ black belt. Bart also has good power in his hands; he has won 17 times by TKO/KO.

Bartimus is in an interesting situation. He has lost to Kamal Shalorus, Ricardo Lamas and Anthony Njokuani. However, he has defeated Anthony Pettis and Tyson Griffin. It is difficult to gauge where Palaszewski is within the division. Unquestionably though, a win here would send him straight to the top.

Hioki would fare well against an opponent whom he could use his slick jiu-jitsu against. In this match, he finds himself faced with a fellow BJJ black belt, who is also capable of knocking him out. Bart will look to keep the fight standing and try to wear Hioki out with his pace and pressure. Hioki will try to keep him at a distance with his size.

Eventually, Hioki will take him down and smother him, looking to land some ground and pound damage. I do not see Hioki finishing Bart, but he will control him enough to earn the decision.

4. Jake Shields vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (Welterweight)

Yoshihiro Akiyama is bringing a three-fight losing streak back home with him. He is in a must-win position and is now fighting 15 pounds lighter, making his debut in the welterweight division. Akiyama is only 1-3 in the UFC. However, all of his losses have come against top middleweight opponents: Vitor Belfort, Michael Bisping and Chris Leben (in a fight he was winning for three rounds).

Many argue Akiyama never catches a break, consistently finding himself pitted against tough opponents. This is true, but it is also necessary. Akiyama is 36 years old. He also puts on fantastic fights, winning fight of the night honors for three of his four UFC fights. His greatest value is facing tough opponents and putting on a show: win or lose.

There is no sense in giving him an easy fight and building him up; he is 36. This is also why I believe Akiyama will not be released with a loss, unless he loses in the first round again. He is a valuable commodity for the UFC.

Akiyama is well-rounded fighter. He has good stand up, with impressive boxing for a Japanese fighter. He is also a black belt in judo, and has been successful incorporating his judo into his fights stateside.

Akiyama pressures his opponents and keeps charging forward, even when he is tagged with punches while coming in. He has been accused of gassing out in the past. However, this may be amended with his drop to 170.

Shields has a very impressive resume. He has wins over Yushin Okami, Dan Henderson and Carlos Condit, among others. He has lost two in a row, but both of those losses have come at the hands of top five welterweights: Jake Ellenberger and champion Georges St. Pierre.

Shields' strengths are obviously his wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He has 10 submission victories compared to 26 wins total. He has never been submitted himself. Four of his six losses have come by decision. Shields will want to out-wrestle Akiyama and smother him from top position. He will not want to stand with his opponent; Shields' stand up has always been his weakness.

I may be crazy BUT, I think this is a perfect match up for Akiyama. He is clearly a better striker. He also has some grappling acumen, being a judo black belt. I think he will be able to fend off Shields' takedowns and pick him apart standing. Akiyama for the win.

3. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson v. Ryan Bader (Light Heavyweight)

Rampage will return to Japan, having had a vastly successful career there previous to his arrival in the UFC. He is coming off a loss to Jon Jones, an unsuccessful bid to reacquire the light heavyweight title. Since losing the title to Forrest Griffin back in July of 2008, Rampage has gone 4-2. His two loses have come to the top two men in the division: Jon Jones and Rashad Evans.

Rampage has fought all of the top fighters in his division over the years, amassing wins over Dan Henderson, Lyoto Machida, Chuck Liddell, Matt Hamill and Wanderlei Silva.

Jackson's strengths are on his feet. He is an excellent boxer with power. 14 of his 32 career wins have come by TKO or KO. His takedown defense is not shabby either. He will not, however, want this fight to stay on the ground long, although he has finished a quarter of his victories (seven of 32) by submission.

After defeating Keith Jardine and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Ryan Bader was knocking on the door of the light heavyweight division's elite. However, he began 2011 losing to Jon Jones (before he had the belt) and a left-for-dead Tito Ortiz. Many had given up on Bader, but he stormed back late in the year, knocking out Jason Brilz in the first round of their bout.

Now he receives a huge step up in competition. It is a chance for restoration as Bader looks to finally join the ranks of the best in the division. Bader is well-rounded. He likes to stand up and has impressive power, but his base is his wrestling.

It may be wise for him to put the former champ on his back and keep him there for the majority of the fight. Bader's only two losses (Jones and Ortiz) have come by submission.

Both fighters need this win to remain at/enter the top of the division. Bader may have the skill set to defeat Rampage, with his wrestling and his potential to stand with him as well. However, I cannot see Rampage losing in this arena; it would not be right, and I see him winning a decision in what could be a fight of the night contender.

2. Anthony Pettis v. Joe Lauzon (Lightweight)

This is a phenomenal fight between two exciting lightweights. Both are looking to place themselves within a single fight of a title shot with a win Saturday.

Anthony Pettis is 14-2 in his career. He has finished 11 of his 14 victories. He is very well balanced and holds a purple belt in jiu-jitsu and a black belt in taekwondo. He has, perhaps, the most dynamic striking in the division; his arsenal is certainly the most diverse.

He has also shown the ability to defeat top opponents. He is the last man to defeat main event fighter Benson Henderson. Since then, Pettis has lost his UFC debut to Clay Guida (a loss that cost Pettis a title shot). He has, however, rebounded, defeating Jeremy Stephens. A win against Joe Lauzon would leave Pettis at the same place he was upon entering the UFC, one victory away from a title shot.

Joe Lauzon has submitted 16 opponents and has won 21 total fights. None of his victories have gone to the final bell. Lauzon constantly pressures his opponents, looking to drop them and submit them. He will have to be careful putting Pettis on his back; Pettis has one of the best and most active guards in the game.

Lauzon has won two fights in a row, both by submission. His most recent win may also be the most career-defining. Lauzon spoiled Melvin Guillard's hopes of a title shot by submitting him in the first minute of their fight.

This is going to be a terrific fight between two somewhat similar fighters. I think Pettis is a little too well-rounded for Lauzon and is very capable of winning this fight whether it stays standing or goes to the ground for extended periods.

1. Lightweight Champion Frankie Edgar v. Benson Henderson

I have been anticipating this matchup since Ben Henderson defeated Jim Miller. I will fully admit I have a "smooth" bias towards Henderson. This could be one of the best fights we've seen since... well, the last couple times Edgar has fought. Should be outstanding to watch. Thank you Dana. Thank you Joe Silva. Thank you Frankie. Thank you Benson.

Frankie Edgar is the lightweight champion. His rivalry with Gray Maynard is now legendary. Before that he defeated B.J. Penn twice. Despite only having faced two opponents as champion, Edgar's title run has been impressive. He will look to continue his legacy against the former WEC champ.

Edgar is quick, with good boxing and technical striking. He is also a very good wrestler. So he is dangerous wherever the fight takes place. Most of Edgar's wins have come by decision, although he does have four KO/TKOs in his career.

Ben Henderson is one of the most well-rounded fighters in mixed martial arts. He is a black belt in taekwondo and brown belt in jiu-jitsu. He is also a college wrestler; he is one of the best wrestlers in the division. Henderson's greatest strength is his submission defense, which is otherworldly. However, he also has some power and has a very good ground game.

Ben has fantastic cardio and will hang with Edgar's pace through all five rounds. His striking is not particularly sharp, though, and he has only knocked out two of his opponents. Ben has eight wins by submission himself.

He was the WEC lightweight champ before losing to Anthony Pettis. He has defeated top 10 lightweight Donald Cerrone twice. Henderson's last two victories have come against top five lightweights: Jim Miller and Clay Guida. He spoiled each of their chances of a title shot. He also dominated both of those opponents. 

Frankie Edgar has been so good during his title reign. He has relentlessly persevered in his fights against Gray Maynard. It is difficult imagining Henderson putting him away. However, Henderson is a special breed of fighter. He has size, strength and incredible skills in every aspect of mixed martial arts. I have to pick Henderson.