Super Bowl 2012 Score: Why the Patriots Will Win in a Shootout

There seems to be the notion floating around out there that the Super Bowl is traditionally a defensive game that doesn't feature a lot of points. I'm not entirely sure why—in 12 of the past 22 Super Bowls, the winning team has scored 31 or more points.

After this year, you can make it 13 for 23. I predict the New England Patriots will defeat the New York Giants, 31-30.

Here's why.

A Lack of Turnovers

The Giants are an impressive plus-five in turnover differential during their three-game playoff run, while the Patriots are a surprising minus-three.

Why is that surprising? Well, during the regular season the Patriots were plus-17 in turnover differential. A huge aspect of the Giants' success in this postseason has been their ability to take the ball away from opponents—something I don't think the Patriots will allow in this game.

Turnover differential often sways the outcome in playoff and Super Bowl matchups. But I expect this game to be largely free of turnovers, resulting in a high-scoring affair.

The Tight Ends

The Giants did well to hold Tony Gonzalez of the Atlanta Falcons and Jermichael Finley of the Green Bay Packers to a combined eight catches for 81 yards and no touchdowns in the Wild Card and Divisional Round.

And then they were promptly burned by Vernon Davis of the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game to the tune of three catches for 112 yards and two touchdowns.

It's one thing to game plan for one elite tight end. It's quite another to have to worry about two, even if Rob Gronkowski is hobbled by a high ankle sprain. The Patriots utilize their tight ends in a number of ways and prevent defenses from making substitutions with their no-huddle attack.

Don't be surprised if Aaron Hernandez runs for 50 yards in this game. New England's tight ends will give the Giants' linebackers and safeties headaches all day long.

Tom Brady Has Something to Prove

If you don't think Mr. Brady has motivation to win this game, think again.

Surely the 2007 Super Bowl is fresh in his mind. Surely he's heard the whispers that the Giants "are in his head." Surely he knows a fourth Super Bowl title might make him the greatest quarterback who's ever played the game.

I don't doubt that the Giants will sustain pressure on Brady and make life difficult for the quarterback. But I think, with two weeks of game-planning and film study to identify the weaknesses in New York's defense, Brady will come out prepared and motivated to prove that he can move the ball against the Giants' excellent pass-rush.

And when Brady is hoisting his third Super Bowl MVP trophy, well, just remember who told you it would happen.

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