Super Bowl Predictions 2012: Breaking Down and Predicting Patriots vs. Giants

After what's felt like such a long week, Super Bowl XLVI between the New England Patriots and New York Giants is just around the corner.

That being said, this is the fifth rematch in Super Bowl history and ironically both met in the regular season as well. With so much recent history between the Pats and Giants, on top of the career history between Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin, this will be a game for the ages.

So here is a complete breakdown with a final prediction at the end.

Patriots Offense vs. Giants Defense

Obviously the key here is winning the battle up front.

New York's front four will need to get pressure on Tom Brady as it's done in the past and his offensive line must protect him. Well, in order to negate a constant barrage of pressure from all over, expect the Patriots running backs to primarily be used as pass-blockers.

Only when the Patriots decide to run the rock will BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead see the ball, because restricting the Giants defensive line takes precedent over an additional receiving target.

New York's pass defense is vulnerable enough that Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski can get open enough times to be efficient. They can't however, be effective unless Brady has a bit of extra time in the pocket.

So, New England should run a lot of one-running back sets with those four targets sifting through the Giants' coverage. As for New York, it needs to simply remain physical all game long.

The linebackers need to jam Gronkowski and Hernandez at the line as much as possible and the defensive backs must play press coverage with inside leverage on the receivers. Forcing Brady's targets to take that extra 0.5 seconds to get off the line vehemently assists the front four.

Which brings us back to why the Pats must keep one running back next to Brady at all times. If there's ever been a chess-match in Super Bowl history, this is it.

Giants Offense vs. Patriots Defense

Almost a replica matchup, the Patriots will need to apply pressure on Eli Manning while also playing press coverage with inside leverage on the New York receivers.

With two underrated cornerbacks in Kyle Arrington and Devin McCourty, New England can wall off the outside receivers a great deal by using the sidelines to its advantage. Therefore, the middle of the field is where Manning must shred.

For one, the weakness in the Patriots pass defense are their safeties. And although the linebackers are solid in underneath coverage, it's that little gap between the intermediate and deep routes where New York can do the most damage.

And with a lot of New England's pass coverage attention geared toward shutting down Eli's receiving corps, expect a big day from tight end Jake Ballard. Easily one of the more underrated players at his position Ballard is a big, reliable target over the middle and athletic enough to go up and make plays.

Lest we forget, he was the guy who caught the game winning touchdown pass against the Patriots in Week 9.

So, for New England to give itself the best chance, playing mostly in a nickel/dime front is needed. Bill Belichick needs to matchup with the Giants receivers while still being able to stop the run.

Therefore, expect more from his 1-5-5 set than anything else. The question is whether his pass defense can minimize the damage when Manning does not get pressured.

Special Teams

Based on the conference championship games alone, special teams will not be under-appreciated in Super Bowl XLVI.

Every time the Giants punt we'll be eye-balling gunner Devin Thomas and whether Julian Edelman will hear the footsteps. And, thanks to such a great red zone defense, the Patriots can position Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes to miss a shot at three-points.

So, what this aspect of the game will really boil down to is not so much turnovers or missed points as it is changing the field position. Obviously that's the main goal of special teams but it goes overlooked quite a bit.

Can each team's punter consistently boom the ball but at the same time, get enough air under it to allow the coverage team to prevent a return?

After all, no matter how long a punt may be, it doesn't mean squat if the returner gets back 20 or so yards. In hindsight, that's two less first-downs the offense will need on the ensuing possession. Therefore, expect a lot of punts to be angled near one of the sidelines.

Kickoffs though, are somewhat of a moot point since most are touchbacks anyway.

However, because of that common occurrence, don't be surprised to see more than one onside kick. In a game that will be close with limited turnovers and scoring opportunities being more scarce than expected, that one extra possession will be the difference.

Worst case-scenario is that every kickoff is a touchback and most punts are fair caught. Then again, not surprising considering how risky special teams can be as evidence of the conference championships.

Final Prediction

Super Bowl XLVI will come down to many factors mainly because each team resembles the other so well.

Both have excellent pass offenses, capable rushing offenses, solid pass rushers and a vulnerable pass defense.

The only real difference between Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin is that one if defense and the other is offense. As part of the Bill Parcells coaching tree, this comes as no surprise.

Tom Brady and Eli Manning will be the first quarterbacks in NFL history to face one another as Super Bowl MVPs, so expect each offense to focus around them as it should.

New York's defense, no matter how much pressure is applied to Tom Brady, will need to completely blanket the Patriots passing game. You can hit Brady 10 times and sack him five, but the one time a defense misses the window of opportunity he will get his team in position to win.

Just ask Baltimore.

Belichick on the other hand, needs to get this New England defense to play like it did in Super Bowl XXXVI against the St. Louis Rams; extremely physical. Although this Giants offense has a long way to go in being compared to The Greatest Show on Turf, they are eerily similar with a great receiving corps and accurate quarterback.

The game will be close but not as high-scoring as expected. The difference though, is who has the ball last with just enough time on the clock.

New England Patriots 30, New York Giants 27

John Rozum on Twitter.