2012 NFL Mock Draft: Most Likely Rookie of the Year Candidates
We're going to find out pretty soon who the NFL Rookies of the Year are for 2011. Right now, Cam Newton looks like a lock for offensive ROY, and defensive ROY is probably a two-horse race between Aldon Smith and Von Miller.
But whatever. I'm not here to talk about this year's Rookie of the Year race. I'm here to talk about next year's Rookie of the Year race.
The 2011 draft class was fairly loaded with talent, but the 2012 draft class might just have it beat. It contains prospects with elite talent, some of whom have the potential to become stars right away.
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The only thing to do is discuss the idea in the form of a full first-round mock. All 32 picks are listed below, with special attention paid to Rookie of the Year candidates.
1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford*
Had you asked me a month ago, I would have told you there was no way Andrew Luck was going to contend for Rookie of the Year honors in 2012. He would, after all, be sitting behind Peyton Manning.
It looks like that's no longer the case. The latest reports on Manning's health cast an ominous cloud over his future with the team, and it almost seems like a lock that the Colts will choose to cast him aside at some point in the next couple of months.
If they do, they can draft Andrew Luck with the No. 1 overall pick, pay him a whole bunch of money and start him right away.
If Luck starts in 2012, things will not be easy for him. He's good, but the Colts are a downright bad team. There's only so much Luck would be able to do.
But hey, Sam Bradford won Rookie of the Year despite playing on a bad St. Louis Rams team, and Newton is poised to win it after his brilliant rookie campaign with the Carolina Panthers. If they can succeed, so can Luck.
2. St. Louis Rams (2-14): Michael Brockers, DT, LSU
Conventional wisdom suggests the Rams will take a wide receiver or a tackle here, but I'm going with Michael Brockers for now. Let's not forget that the Rams were awful on defense in 2011, particularly in the middle. Adding Brockers would allow them to change that. He's a little too raw to make an immediate impact, though.
3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, USC
I'm actually starting to wonder if Matt Kalil is a little overrated, but he's an easy pick for the Vikings at the No. 3 spot. They need a left tackle to protect Christian Ponder, and Kalil is supposed to be the best there is. Even if he has an excellent season, it's a fact of life that O-linemen aren't allowed to win major awards.
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama*
I could be changing this pick in the very near future, as Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer has reported that the Browns are very much open to re-signing Peyton Hillis.
If they don't, drafting Trent Richardson will be the way to go when the draft rolls around. The Browns are going to need a running back, and Richardson is the best the 2012 class has to offer.
Richardson is a freakish physical specimen. He has more muscles than a 1980s action movie star, yet he moves faster than he gets credit for. He has the goods upstairs too, as he has great vision and patience.
There's really no reason Richardson wouldn't be able to succeed at the next level, and Cleveland is a place where he could start right away if the Browns choose to part ways with Hillis. The rest would take care of itself.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Patrick Peterson ended up living up to the hype after being drafted No. 5 overall in 2011. In 2012, it will be Morris Claiborne's turn. He's an elite cover corner, and the Buccaneers are going to need one of those. They could lose both Ronde Barber and Aqib Talib this offseason.
6. Washington Redskins (5-11): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor*
Robert Griffin III will probably end up going No. 2 overall in the draft, but there's no way the Redskins would pass on him if he fell to them at No. 6.
Griffin has everything he needs to be successful in the NFL. He has well above-average athleticism, and it's uncanny how strong and accurate his arm is. There were times during the 2011 college football season when he just made things look too easy.
On the Redskins, RG3's biggest problem would be a lack of support. The 'Skins have some solid running backs, but they're a little lacking at wide receiver. Seeing as how RG3 is used to playing with explosive receivers, this would be an issue.
Still, it's my opinion that RG3 could step in and lead this Redskins team to the playoffs. They're that solid. All they need is a quarterback.
If Griffin ends up answering the call, he will get some ROY love.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
The other option here is Justin Blackmon, but the Jags need a pass-rusher just as badly as they need a wide receiver. Given his freakish athleticism and high ceiling, it's going to be very hard for them to pass on Quinton Coples if he's available.
8. Carolina Panthers (6-10, pending coin flip with Miami): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
Wide receiver isn't a huge need in Carolina, but the Panthers will recognize Justin Blackmon as a gift if he falls to them. It's hard to imagine a better complement for Steve Smith, and you know Newton would approve of the idea. I doubt Blackmon would be in the ROY race, though, as it would be hard for him to stand out playing opposite Smith.
9. Miami Dolphins (6-10, pending coin flip with Carolina): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
The Dolphins have a new head coach in Joe Philbin, and he has the power to make Miami's offense elite again. To do that, he's going to need to upgrade the team's offensive line. It has some good pieces on it, but another tackle would come in handy. Riley Reiff would be an easy choice.
10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama*
Let's stop and give some love to the first defensive player on this little countdown: Courtney Upshaw.
The Bills are not without issues on the offensive side of the football, but their primary needs are on defense. They scored when they drafted Marcell Dareus third overall in 2011, but they need to score again by adding a pass-rushing linebacker.
There are none better than Upshaw. He's a hard guy to block due to his speed and elusiveness, and he can overpower blockers just as easily as he can run past them. Getting to the quarterback will be his forte in the NFL.
It just so happens that this is the same forte of two of this year's ROY candidates: Aldon Smith and Von Miller. People tend to notice when a single player is wreaking havoc and racking up sacks, so they will notice Upshaw if he does the same in the NFL.
If so, some ROY love will be in the cards.
11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9, pending coin flip with Seattle): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
The Chiefs needed offensive line help in 2011, but they decided to draft Jonathan Baldwin in the first round instead. They'd be wise not to ignore the problem again, and Jonathan Martin is a guy who will stand out. He would be a great fit in Kansas City.
12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9, pending coin flip with Kansas City): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
The Seahawks could use a pass-rushing defensive end, and Melvin Ingram is one of the best. As a bonus, Ingram is also versatile. If the Seahawks wanted to change things up by playing Ingram off the line, they could. He has experience playing linebacker.
13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Offensive line help would be ideal here, but there will be nobody worth reaching for. Instead, the Cardinals would be wise to draft a receiver to help take some pressure off of Larry Fitzgerald. Michael Floyd would be an easy pick.
14. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
The Cowboys already have a strong defense, but that doesn't mean they can't make it stronger. Drafting a cornerback would be a good way to do so, and Dre Kirkpatrick is practically a steal here. He's a borderline top-10 guy.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State*
I'm on the fence about Vontaze Burfict, but the dude definitely has talent. It's just a question of which team will roll the dice on him in the draft.
The Eagles have every excuse to roll the dice on Burfict. Their linebacking corps is in need of a serious boost, and middle linebacker is arguably the team's biggest need. Burfict will be too tempting to pass up.
Burfict would be tasked with stopping all the running backs who found it a little too easy to run on the Eagles in 2011. That's something he has the ability to do, but Burfict also has the ability to rush the passer, and he's a threat to make plays when he drops back into coverage.
To be successful in the NFL, Burfict merely has to keep his emotions in check. If he can do that, he has the potential to be a perennial Pro Bowler. No joke.
He would start by competing for Rookie of the Year.
16. New York Jets (8-8): Chris Polk, RB, Washington
This is a lot higher than Chris Polk is projected to go, but the truth is, he's a perfect fit for the Jets. If they want to get back to their "ground-and-pound" style of play, they're going to need to get another running back. Polk fits that philosophy to a T, yet he's also way more versatile than he gets credit for.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from 8-8 Oakland Raiders): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
This is the highest I've ever had Janoris Jenkins. We've always know he had talent, but his character with another issue. He eased concerns at the Senior Bowl, though, making it apparent that he's not the same guy who got kicked out of Florida. He's ready to be a pro.
18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Mike Adams, OT, Ohio State
The Chargers have question marks at both tackle spots. May as well draft a guy who could play on both sides of the line if need be, and Mike Adams is that guy. He's a fast-rising prospect who will have a solid NFL career.
19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina*
The big complaint concerning the Bears offense in the last couple of seasons is that Jay Cutler just doesn't have enough to work with in the passing game.
More than anything, what Cutler needs a big wide receiver.
Meet Alshon Jeffery. At 6'4" and 230 pounds, he's plenty big. He also has underrated athleticism and elite jump-ball abilities. He's like a slightly-less dangerous version of Calvin Johnson, which is high praise.
Cutler wouldn't have to do much to get the ball to Jeffery. He would merely have to throw it up for grabs in his general direction. Jeffery would come down with it.
This is a luxury that Cutler is not used to having. He and Jeffery would be a great pair.
20. Tennessee Titans (8-8): David DeCastro, G, Stanford
I have a feeling the Titans are going to be needing a cornerback in the near future. The Tennessean reported in January that Cortland Finnegan is not exactly optimistic about being re-signed. If the Titans do find a way to re-sign him, their top priority in the draft should be to upgrade their offensive line. David DeCastro would be a steal.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Lamar Miller, RB, Miami*
In January, Cedric Benson told the Cincinnati Enquirer that he's not sure about his future with the Bengals. He signed a one-year with the team last offseason.
My guess is that Benson will head elsewhere, which would give the Bengals a pretty serious need at running back heading into the draft.
They're not going to be able to do any better than Lamar Miller by the time they're on the clock. He put up modest numbers at Miami, but that has more to do with the Hurricanes offense than anything else. The important part is that Miller has talent.
Miller is not a between-the-tackles bruiser like Trent Richardson. He's more of a make-guys-miss running back who is at his best in space. Running backs like that can succeed in the NFL.
If Benson walks and the Bengals draft Miller, he would find a starting job waiting for him. All he would have to do then is go to town. He could easily end up in the ROY race.
22. Cleveland Browns (from 10-6 Atlanta Falcons): Cordy Glenn, G/T, Georgia
The Browns could go for a wide receiver here, but they're better off finding a guy who could pave the way for Richardson. Cordy Glenn can play both tackle and guard. He would be a great pick.
23. Detroit Lions (10-6): Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
Cornerback is not a huge need in Detroit, but the Lions need to be as strong as possible in their secondary if they expect to give the Green Bay Packers a run for their money. Stephon Gilmore would be a good get.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
The Steelers would love to find an offensive lineman here, but they're not going to have any luck in that regard. They'll be better off finding a future replacement for one of their aging players. Dont'a Hightower would be a good choice, and it's worth pointing out that he looks like a classic Steelers linebacker.
25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State
The Broncos got by with issues at defensive tackle in 2011, but they don't want to risk that again. They need to shore up the middle of their defensive line. Jerel Worthy is one of the best 4-3 DTs in the draft class. He would do just fine.
26. Houston Texans (10-6): Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
The Texans have a rock-solid offense, but they could stand to add another wide receiver. Kendall Wright is a home run threat who would be a perfect fit alongside Andre Johnson. Houston's offense could go from good to elite.
27. New England Patriots (from 13-3 New Orleans Saints): Devon Still, DT, Penn State
New England's defensive line has looked very good this postseason, but the Pats could use a defensive end. Devon Still is a guy who would fit right in, as he could play defensive end in a 3-4 or defensive tackle in a 4-3. The Pats couldn't lose with him.
28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Zach Brown, OLB, North Carolina*
Though the Packers could use a running back, we know that they're going to be just fine on offense moving forward.
What they could really use is more help on defense, either in the secondary or in their linebacking corps. I personally like the idea of drafting an athletic linebacker who could provide some support for Clay Matthews.
Zach Brown would be an odd pick, but he would fit right in next to Matthews. Brown has speed and athleticism to make all the plays, and the word around the campfire is that he can do something else now too.
Tony Pauline of Sports Illustrated reported from the Senior Bowl that Brown could not be stopped in pass-rushing drills. Seeing as how the knock on him has always been his pass-rushing skills, that's a good sign.
In Dom Capers' hands, Brown could become a star, not to mention an immediate-impact player.
29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Nick Perry, OLB, USC
This is lower than Nick Perry should go, but you won't hear the Ravens complaining if he falls to them. They could stand to upgrade their linebacking corps, especially with Ray Lewis' career coming to its inevitable end.
30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
The 49ers need some help at wide receiver. That much became clear in the NFC Championship Game. There won't be any stars available for the taking at No. 30, but Mohamed Sanu is a guy who could step in and contribute right away.
31. New York Giants (9-7): Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
The Giants have an outstanding defensive line, but they could stand to upgrade their linebacking corps. Luke Kuechly is a tackling machine who could clean up behind the guys up front.
32. New England Patriots (13-3): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
The Patriots are going to need to add some depth to their secondary in the draft. If he's still available, Alfonzo Dennard would be an easy pick. At worst, he'll be a better coverage option than Julian Edelman.


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