Super Bowl Predictions 2012: Patriots vs. Giants, 4 Over/Under Predictions
To say that Super Bowl XLVI is an exciting and hyped-up event doesn't do justice to the popularity of pro football and America's love for the violent sport.
That being said, there are numerous over/under predictions about the game and how it will turn out. Well, here's four more you can add to the list on Super Bowl Sunday.
Over/Under 630 Total Passing Yards
1 of 4Two explosive passing offenses against vulnerable pass defenses, it's a foregone conclusion that Tom Brady and Eli Manning will burn the scoreboard, right?
To some extent yes, however, we must not derive our attention from the actual objective of the game.
Winning.
Somewhere Charlie Sheen just got a royalty check but anyway, we can't delve into the realm of statistics with two great quarterbacks jousting on the NFL's biggest stage once again.
Also, we can't overlook how well each defense has miraculously stepped up in the postseason. Throughout the course of the regular season each defense allowed a combined average of almost 400 total yards per game (Pats 411, Giants 375).
But they also were great at getting pressure on the quarterback as they combined for 88 sacks, while adding 17 in five playoff games between them. On the other hand, Brady and Manning have played well enough to win in January but produced nowhere close to their regular season numbers.
In this game, do expect each quarterback to shred as the targets of Rob Gronkowski, Wes Welker, Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz will dominate when provided the opportunity. The question is, how long will the protection hold up against solid pass rushers?
Both quarterbacks will play well—but not to the exploding level that offensive-minded fans want to see.
UNDER 630 total passing yards
Over/Under 6.5 Red Zone Attempts Made
2 of 4As we saw in the AFC Championship game, stepping up in the red zone is what arguably counts more than anything.
No matter if it's touchdowns or field goals, watching points go on the board can allow a team to breathe a sigh of relief in the midst of an intense game.
In the playoffs, New England has gone 7-for-11 when inside the opponent's 20 yard-line, but five of those scores came against the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round. Versus the Giants in the regular season matchup, the Pats were 2-for-4 inside the red zone, which ultimately cost them the game.
New York won 24-20 in the final minutes.
The Giants, on the other hand, are just 5-for-12 this postseason inside the red zone but have thrived off six forced turnovers in the past two games.
When playing the Pats in the regular season, New York was 3-for-5 inside the 20 and won because they simply got more scoring opportunities.
In Super Bowl XLVI, don't expect anymore than nine combined red zone opportunities with improved defenses. Not to mention that New England won't turn the ball over like Green Bay or San Francisco, and the Giants will prove to be a better pass rushing team than Baltimore and Denver.
UNDER 6.5 red zone attempts made
Over/Under 11.5 Combined Third-Down Conversions
3 of 4Much like how the red zone attempts affected the AFC Championship game, converting third-downs played a major role in the NFC title game.
There, the Giants held San Francisco to going just 1-for-13 on third down attempts, while their own offense was 7-for-21. Now, although going 33 percent isn't that much more impressive, a team would take that over 7.7 percent any day.
In its other two postseason games versus Atlanta and Green Bay, New York was an impressive 16-for-31 on third downs but was just 4-for-14 against the Pats during the regular season.
Here, the Giants had success when Eli Manning's receivers had time to find zone soft spots and comeback to the ball. Therefore, expect additional pressure from Bill Belichick in this situation.
As for New England, the Patriots were 8-for-16 in their two playoff games and 5-for-15 versus New York in Week 9. Here, Brady liked to get the ball out quick and let guys like Gronkowski and Welker make plays.
So, anticipate the Giants playing more press coverage and sinking the linebackers underneath the intermediate routes.
All this being said, third down is where each offense has really made their money. Expect the quarterbacks and receiving targets to step up against susceptible pass defenses in clutch situations.
OVER 11.5 combined third down conversions
Over/Under 116 Millions of Viewers
4 of 4Not a game-related prediction, but one that deserves much consideration and recognition because of literally how big the Super Bowl is.
And in an article by Robert Seidman of TV By the Numbers from February 2011, the NFL's biggest game only got bigger from Super Bowl XLV:
"This is the fourth consecutive Super Bowl to set a viewership record, and attracted 13.5 million more viewers than FOX’s last Super Bowl broadcast in 2008 (97.5 million) for the New York Giants upset of the undefeated New England Patriots. No other major sporting event has ever hit a record high in four consecutive years. This also marks the sixth straight year that Super Bowl viewership has increased, and over that span average Super Bowl viewership has increased from 86.1 million in 2005 to 111.0 million, a gain of nearly 25 million viewers.
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To break down the game from the Patriots and Giants first meeting, here's a look at the average percent increase between each Super Bowl from 2008 through 2011.
Super Bowl XLII to Super Bowl XLIII = 1.3 percent increase
Super Bowl XLIII to Super Bowl XLIV = 7.27 percent increase
Super Bowl XLIV to Super Bowl XLV = 4.08 percent increase
All together that comes out to an average increase of 4.21 percent (in millions of viewers) per Super Bowl for the past four years.
By using these numbers, that means Super Bowl XLVI should anticipate roughly 115.7 million viewers. However, because of the increased marketing techniques, advancement of social media with technology as well as the teams and players, that number will be probably much more.
Guys like Tom Brady and Eli Manning will surely benefit the ratings, as viewers will see this Bowl as a rematch from just four years ago—and don't forget about the commercials.
To that end, expect another remarkable number of viewers as the NFL continues to grow.
OVER 116 million viewers
John Rozum on Twitter.
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