2012 NFL Mock Draft: Pick-by-Pick Analysis for First Round
There's a strange irony when it comes to mocking the NFL Draft—as difficult as it may be at times to accurately predict which college football stars will go when, it's an even tougher and more onerous task to figure out which of them will actually pan out once they set cleat to turf.
With the Senior Bowl over and the Super Bowl just over the horizon, let's take a peek at how the first round of the 2012 draft may (or may not) shake out.
1. Indianapolis Colts (2-14): Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
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One of three things will happen to Peyton Manning between now and the start of the 2012 season:
1) He'll be cut loose by the Colts.
2) He'll be traded by the Colts.
3) He'll retire from football on account of three neck surgeries in the last year-and-a-half or so.
What do all three scenarios have in common? Andrew Luck as the starter in Indy next season.
2. St. Louis Rams (2-14): Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State
The Rams figure to end up with Justin Blackmon whether they trade down or not. Sam Bradford needs a buddy to throw to, and there's none better in this draft class than Blackmon, who was a two-time Biletnikoff Award winner at Oklahoma State.
3. Minnesota Vikings (3-13): Matt Kalil, OT, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings could use a receiver for their young quarterback, too.
But in the absence of Blackmon, they probably wouldn't mind picking up Matt Kalil to protect Christian Ponder's blind side for the foreseeable future.
4. Cleveland Browns (4-12): Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
Remember the Colt McCoy Era in Cleveland?
Yeah, neither will anybody else once RG3 winds up in a Browns uniform, or at least that's what Mike Holmgren is hoping for. They'll need to find the Heisman Trophy winner another receiver to throw to (see later), but for now, adding the best athlete in the draft will be a pretty darn good start.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama
Greg Schiano enjoyed great success at Rutgers when he had a reliable running back to lean on. Trent Richardson may not be the second coming of Ray Rice right off the bat, but the ball-carrying beast out of Alabama has the potential to be even better than the former Scarlet Knight and current Baltimore Ravens Pro Bowler.
If nothing else, he'll bring some stability to the Bucs' backfield behind young quarterback Josh Freeman.
6. Washington Redskins (5-11): Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU
Assuming the Redskins don't raffle off the farm to move up and select RG3, expect them to opt for Morris Claiborne, the best corner in the draft. Washington can always find a quarterback later in the draft or via free agency if need be.
A player of Claiborne's considerable gifts would be a welcome addition in a division chock-full of pass-catching talent.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina
With Justin Blackmon off the board, the Jaguars will make it their mission to upgrade their second-rate pass rush.
Pegging Quinton Coples to be Jeremy Mincey's sack partner would be an excellent step in that direction. The North Carolina product didn't exactly have his most productive campaign in 2011, with 7.5 sacks for the Tar Heels, but that doesn't change the fact that Coples, at 6'6" and 285 pounds, is an absolute monster off the edge.
And it's not like the dude's just a big bag of meat, either. Coples has some serious pep in his step, more than enough to leave NFL quarterbacks shaking in their boots.
8. Miami Dolphins (6-10): Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
Matt Moore would appear to be entrenched as the starting quarterback in Miami heading into the 2012 season, unless new head coach Joe Philbin pushes GM Jeff Ireland to sign Matt Flynn this offseason.
In any case, the Dolphins would do well to upgrade their offensive line—especially at right tackle, where Marc Colombo has been abysmal—to ensure that Moore can stay upright for a full season.
Enter Riley Reiff, on the right.
9. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama
Carolina's defense is terrible in just about every phase.
Throw Dre Kirkpatrick, a 6'3" corner, across from Chris Gamble, and Ron Rivera's team might be able to slow down opponents enough to contend for a playoff spot in the second year of the Cam Newton era.
10. Buffalo Bills (6-10): Courtney Upshaw, OLB, Alabama
Sackmasters are all the rage these days and the Bills appear to be hard after one for themselves.
Two years ago, Bills head coach Chan Gailey couldn't tell enough people about his team's need for a running back before C.J. Spiller ended up in western New York.
This time around, Gailey is going ga-ga over Buffalo's lack of a reliable pass rush.
Courtney Upshaw would be a perfect fit in the Bills' 3-4 scheme. He's easily the best pass-rushing linebacker in the draft and is outclassed only by Quinton Coples when it comes to sacking quarterbacks.
11. Kansas City Chiefs (7-9): Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Jonathan Martin is everything a team could dream of in an offensive tackle: He's big, strong, athletic, tough and, with his Stanford education, smart. He would be a perfect fit along a Chiefs offensive line that's been decimated by injuries and retirements in recent years.
12. Seattle Seahawks (7-9): Michael Brockers, DL, LSU
The Seahawks will need to find a franchise quarterback at some point.
But taking Ryan Tannehill at No. 12 would be too much of a reach, especially with Tarvaris Jackson proving to be more than serviceable this past season.
Their defense, on the other hand, could use some serious work. Michael Brockers should help improve Seattle's pass rush, whether Pete Carroll decides to play him inside or on the edge. The LSU product is big (6'6", 306 pounds) and strong enough to make hay on the inside, either storming toward opposing quarterbacks or freeing up his teammates by demanding double teams.
13. Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Luke Kuechly, ILB, Boston College
Arizona spent a ton of money upgrading its linebacking corps this past summer and its run defense still stank up the joint. Luke Kuechly is the best there is on the inside in this draft class and will make the Cardinals coaching staff mighty happy.
14. Dallas Cowboys (8-8): David DeCastro, OG, Stanford
Last I checked, the interior of Dallas' offensive line was flat-out awful. David DeCastro should help to mask the problems posed by playing Phil Costa and Montrae Holland up front.
15. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama
The Eagles' run defense never quite recovered from the departure of Stewart Bradley, though it did improve significantly as the season went along and Juan Castillo realized he wasn't coaching the offensive line anymore.
Hence, look for Dont'a Hightower, a redshirt junior and the defensive MVP of the BCS title game, to get the nod here and bring some serious attitude and athleticism of his own to the middle of the Eagles' D.
16. New York Jets (8-8): Whitney Mercilus, OLB/DE, Illinois
There's a reason Rex Ryan called blitzes so much this season and it didn't have to do with how much he trusted Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie on the outside.
Rather, Ryan realized just how poor his front seven were at pressuring opposing quarterbacks.
Enter Whitney Mercilus, an athletic specimen at linebacker with plenty of prior experience playing in a 3-4 scheme. The name (pronounced "merciless") says it all—the kid is an absolute beast off the edge, with an NCAA-best 16 sacks in 2011.
Mercilus and Muhammad Wilkerson will comprise one heckuva pass-rushing tandem in the AFC East for years to come.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama
Thanks to the generosity of the Oakland Raiders, who so desperately shelled out draft picks to pick up Carson Palmer, the Bengals will have the opportunity to draft Janoris Jenkins, the most notorious bad boy in the class of 2012.
Jenkins will fill Cincinnati's need at corner while comfortably fitting in with Marvin Lewis' locker room full of social deviants. If not for his spotty legal history, Jenkins, who played three seasons at Florida before winding up at North Alabama, would easily be a top-10 pick.
As it stands, Jenkins stood out for the South squad at the Senior Bowl and will be bound for the first round as a result.
18. San Diego Chargers (8-8): Nick Perry, OLB/DE, USC
San Diego's pass-rush dropped off considerably in 2011; only one guy on the roster (Antwan Barnes) registered more than four sacks.
Nick Perry is still a bit raw, but with a bit of coaching and refinement, the early-entry USC product has the potential to be a defensive star thanks to his tremendous physical gifts.
19. Chicago Bears (8-8): Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska
Tim Jennings will be a free agent come March, leaving Chicago's secondary tenuously thin in a division with Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.
Alfonzo Dennard isn't particularly tall for a corner, but he has the strength and speed to cover just about anyone who'd dare challenge him. Even with a somewhat subpar week at the Senior Bowl, Dennard should still be destined for selection in the first round.
20. Tennessee Titans (9-7): Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina
Is it just me, or are there a ton of teams that need help pursuing the quarterback?
The Titans certainly fall into that category. They managed just 24 sacks this season—seven of which came courtesy of Karl Klug.
Yes, Karl Klug—Tennessee's defensive tackle.
Melvin Ingram should help quite a bit in that department, Klug or no Klug. Ingram's not the biggest end out there (6'2", 276 pounds), but the kid comes equipped with a tremendous motor—good enough to notch 10 sacks as a senior. He stood out from the crowd during the Senior Bowl practices and will make Mike Munchak mighty happy if/when he winds up in the Music City.
21. Cincinnati Bengals (9-7): Cordy Glenn, OG, Georgia
Like Ingram, Cordy Glenn made a name for himself in Mobile, Alabama, this week, though on the other side of the ball. The senior out of Georgia put his massive size to good use, demonstrating the athleticism and footwork to switch between tackle and guard.
That sort of versatility is invaluable in the NFL, especially for the Bengals, who will need help along the offensive line to compensate for the effects of age and injuries on Nate Livings and Bobbie Williams.
22. Detroit Lions (10-6): Peter Konz, C, Wisconsin
Dominic Raiola has been a good sport, sticking with the Lions through 10 terrible seasons before finally sniffing the playoffs this time around.
Unfortunately, the guy's 33, is owed $4 million and isn't particularly good anymore.
Meanwhile, Peter Konz is the best center to enter the draft in the last few years.
As heartwarming as it would be for Detroit to reward Raiola's loyalty, the team must remain more concerned with winning football games than sentimentality.
With all the love RG3 soaked up at Baylor this season, it's easy to forget about the guy who made the Heisman Trophy winner look as good as he did.
That was the job of Kendall Wright, who came up roses in that regard, hauling in 108 balls for 1,663 yards and 14 touchdowns.
But it's not the stats that will impress NFL scouts—nor will Wright's size (5'10", 190 pounds).
Rather, Wright will climb up draft boards the same way he managed to make himself a prospect in the first place—with speed, and lots of it. In fact, he may just be the fastest kid in this draft class.
As it stands, the Browns may yet do the right thing and improve their receiving corps with their new QB's old teammate.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4): Kelechi Osemele, OT/OG, Iowa State
One of these days, Ben Roethlisberger will go down with an injury and won't be able to get back up and keep playing.
The Steelers don't ever want to see that, so they'll do the smart thing and upgrade their offensive line, starting with Kelechi Osemele. The Iowa State product was the most impressive physical specimen to set foot on the field at the Senior Bowl, displaying the sort of strength and versatility to play just about anywhere along the offensive line outside of center.
With Chris Kemoeatu, Doug Legursky and Ramon Foster having proven so paltry in pass protection for Big Ben, Osemele will be a more-than-welcome addition to a Steelers line that's been among the NFL's worst in recent years.
25. Denver Broncos (8-8): Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
Nobody would mistake Tim Tebow for a great passer.
But neither would anyone suggest his receivers are any good, save for the occasional big game from Demaryius Thomas.
Adding a pass catcher of Michael Floyd's caliber would change all of that.
The 6'3", 224-pounder is big enough, strong enough and fast enough (and gosh darnit, people like him). He nearly came out as a junior but ultimately decided to return to South Bend for his senior season, during which he overcame a series of personal trials and tribulations off the football field to shine on it.
Floyd's almost a mirror image of Thomas, which could hurt his appeal to the Broncos. Then again, Thomas' performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Wild Card Weekend might have convinced fans that two of him are better than one.
26. Houston Texans (10-6): Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
If you watched either of the Texans' playoff games, you probably noticed that Jacoby Jones is the football equivalent of a black hole. As such, Houston could use a legitimate No. 2 receiver behind Andre Johnson.
Luckily, Alshon Jeffery looks like he'll fall right into GM Rick Smith's lap.
The 6'4", 229-pounder has the size and freakish athleticism to fill in for Johnson when he's not playing across from him.
27. New England Patriots (13-3): Devon Still, DL, Penn State
The Patriots should have three words posted on their big board come draft day: Defense, defense, defense.
First up (as with so many other teams) is the pass rush, which was practically nonexistent this season. Though Devon Still projects as a tackle (a position already occupied in New England by Vince Wilfork), the Penn State senior can fill in on the edge while providing some depth on the inside when necessary.
28. Green Bay Packers (15-1): Jerel Worthy, DL, Michigan State
The Packers' worst fears came to fruition in a rather devastating fashion with their 37-20 loss to the Giants.
No, I'm not talking about ball security—though that proved to be a huge problem for Green Bay. I'm referring, instead, to a defense that was among the worst in the NFL this season, plummeting from fifth in total yards allowed in 2010 to dead last in 2011.
The line, in particular, never seemed to recover from the loss of Cullen Jenkins. B.J. Raji seemed to spend more time filming awkward State Farm commercials than plugging running lanes.
Jerel Worthy would take care of that problem.
29. Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Vontaze Burfict, ILB, Arizona State
Ray Lewis isn't getting any younger, and Burfict has the freakish athletic ability and nasty streak on the field to play right away and fill the Hall of Fame linebacker's shoes when he decides to hang 'em up.
30. San Francisco 49ers (13-3): Mohamed Sanu, WR, Rutgers
Sooo, Braylon Edwards happened. Michael Crabtree hasn't exactly set the world ablaze with his play in his three NFL seasons either.
Think Alex Smith would look better with a guy like Mohamed Sanu to throw to?
The Niners will need a receiver like Sanu to take over for Kyle Williams, who'd be foolhardy to show his face in the Bay Area anytime soon after a goat-worthy performance in the NFC Championship Game.
31. New York Giants (9-7): Lamar Miller, RB, Miami
The Giants finished dead last in the NFL in rushing this season, thanks to subpar seasons from Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw.
Sure, they've come on strong as of late, helping to carry Big Blue to the brink of Super Bowl XLVI. But Jacobs isn't likely to return, and Bradshaw can't be counted on to carry the load every down.
Lamar Miller, on the other hand, is big enough to carry the ball 20-25 times a game and is fast enough to make people miss.
32. New England Patriots (13-3): Mark Barron, SS, Alabama
Kudos to Rob Ninkovich, James Ihedigbo and Julian Edelman for taking up space in New England's vacuous defensive backfield.
That said, Bill Belichick isn't likely to twiddle his thumbs and hope his secondary magically improves on its own. Instead, expect him to add Alabama's Mark Barron, the best safety in the draft, if/when he's presented with the opportunity to do so. The senior is just the sort of vicious hitter who can and will bring some attitude and ability back to the Pats' soft secondary.
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