UFC 143 Fight Card: Predicting KO, Submission and Fight of the Night

UFC 143 is this Saturday night, if you can believe it, and the stakes could not be any higher for Nick Diaz and "The Natural Born Killer" Carlos Condit. The pair will do battle for the UFC interim welterweight title, which will then be unified with the real welterweight belt in a bout opposite the UFC's current 170-pound titleholder and consensus No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Georges "Rush" St-Pierre.

The former Strikeforce welterweight champion Diaz's long-anticipated bout against St-Pierre was to have taken place this Saturday night, 24 hours before a Super Bowl XLVI collision between the New York Giants and the New England Patriots, but a knee injury forced GSP to withdraw for the second time, thus opening a door for the former WEC welterweight champion to draw Diaz and capitalize on the momentum of a recent UFC 132 win over Dong Hyun Kim.

However, Diaz is also coming off a win of his own, namely the unanimous decision win he scored against BJ Penn, so both men are laying it all on the line as they look to pencil in their own date against the champion St-Pierre, who defeated Matt Serra for the belt at UFC 82 and has not lost a fight since.

On top of a card opening with Ed "Short Fuse" Herman vs. newcomer Clifford Starks, featuring a UFC bantamweight tilt with Scott "Young Guns" Jorgensen against 27-1-0 (1 NC) prospect Renan Barão, as well as a potential breakout fight for Mike Pierce opposite perennial bad boy Josh Koscheck, and co-headlined by the return of "The Emelianenko Hunter" Fabricio Werdum against TUF 10 winner and IFL veteran "Big Country" Roy Nelson, Diaz vs. Condit will wrap up a fight night with the capability of stealing the weekend for sports fans of all calibers.

The main questions left to be asked now are who takes home the Knockout of the Night, Submission of the Night and Fight of the Night bonuses on Super Bowl weekend? Let's take a look at the likely candidates.

Knockout of the Night: Roy Nelson

Unlike the two men involved in the main event of the evening, the co-main event will see one man coming off of a win over Mirko Cro Cop, with his opponent coming off of the most atrocious performance of his career after a loss to Alistair Overeem.

Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum will go down as one of the most underrated heavyweights in MMA history since he is, after all, the first of three men to own a legitimate victory over Fedor Emelianenko, owning the honor of being the first man to submit him.

However, let's call it the way it really is, for once: the way Werdum followed up one of the biggest upsets in combat sports history was through one of the most abominable performances in the history of the heavyweight division.

As funny as it was seeing Nelson get slammed by Frank Mir, and as eye-opening as it was to see Nelson's heart and iron belly against now-champ Junior Dos Santos, the consensus is that the two-fight skid Nelson was coming off of when he faced Cro Cop wasn't that much better.

Still, nothing's distracting anyone from the knockout power of Nelson or the Muay Thai of Werdum, and while both will likely feel comfortable on the ground, both will also look to impress in a way that turns heads, and therefore, they might both opt to stand and bang.

Expect a heavyweight-style bonus to come with a heavyweight-style stoppage in what will be a clash of two big boys with a willingness to throw down, and if we're picking out the man most likely to do it, the natural choice is Nelson, who opened his UFC career with two straight Knockout of the Night bonuses in wins over Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve.

Don't call it a shocker if Werdum can pull off the KO, but while Werdum might be a more high-volume striker, it's Nelson that packs a punch and then some.

Submission of the Night: Renan Barao

Originally, I was going to let this fight take Fight of the Night honors on my predictions, hand my Submission of the Night pick over to Dustin Poirier in his fight with Max Holloway, and over-exaggerate the main event.

Well, you'll be proud to learn that I'm sticking to part of  my intentions, but with a wrestler and former UFC/WEC bantamweight title contender in Scott Jorgensen going up against a wickedly well-rounded fighter in Renan Barao, who carries a sick jiu-jitsu game with a technically sound striking game and arguably one of the best records in the post-Fedor era of MMA, it's a bit difficult to realistically see this fight as anything less than the Submission of the Night candidate.

Subsequently, it's also tough to see Barao somehow walking away from this one without the win or the bonus for the Submission of the Night, barring a wicked knockout in this fight.

Jorgensen neutralized the Brazilian jiu-jitsu of "Big Frog" Jeff Curran at UFC 137, and Curran's a fantastic jiu-jitsu specialist in his own right, so Barao can definitely expect the biggest threat to his untouched record so far, but Barao's jiu-jitsu is not easy to neutralize.

Unless Jorgensen can knock Barao out, Barao will implement his jiu-jitsu and display textbook form and near-perfect technique as he forces "Young Guns" to submit when it counts, and thus Barao might be just a little bit closer to either Dominick Cruz or Urijah Faber...

..or, it's possible that a win might put him close to a bantamweight dream bout with Michael "Mayday" McDonald, and that bout would be one that the world would pay to see any day of the week.

Fight of the Night: Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit

Was there any doubt that this would be my pick for "Fight of the Night"?

Both guys can strike, both guys can take fights to the ground and work their jiu-jitsu, and while Condit's got his knees and his elbows, Diaz has responded to Condit's elbows and knees by asking one question:

"Can you get any of that off when you're backing up?"

Condit's lost close bouts before, but the last time anyone's come close to beating Condit was when Rory MacDonald almost beat Condit at UFC 115, and MacDonald didn't bring the fight to Condit the way Diaz will.

What will it be like for Condit when he has to deal with Diaz's high-volume offense, and for that matter, what will Diaz have to overcome when Condit is throwing everything at Diaz will intentions to do harm?

Whatever should happen, there should be zero question that this bout is a candidate for Fight of the Night, but it has all the potential to be MMA's Fight of The Century if Diaz and Condit have anything to do with it, and this fact could be no more truthful than on Super Bowl Saturday.

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