Super Bowl Spread: Predicting Giants vs. Patriots Game Flow to Pick Betting Line

In Super Bowl XLVI, the New England Patriots are minus 3-point favorite against the New York Giants, with the over/under being 55 points according to BetVega.com.

That being said, should you take the Pats against the spread or the Giants with the points? Also, should you take the over with both teams scoring more than 55 combined points or the under? Well, let's predict how the game flow will indicate the final outcome.

Then, we can determine which road to take on the betting line.

Early On

Here, we have to expect New England to try and remain balanced, while the Giants come out firing. The difference is which defense wears down first, as both offenses are quite explosive.

The Patriots, however, must stay balanced because of New York's stellar pass rush, and its' coverage can suffocate when there's no rushing threat. So, we could even expect New England to come out running the ball early to keep the Giants honest.

Then, because of their vulnerable pass defense, we can expect them to strike hard a few times before the first quarter ends. As for the Giants, they need to come out blazing, but use the running backs as extra pass protection for Eli Manning.

New England has a better pass rush than given credit for, so allowing the receivers to exploit the Pats even more susceptible pass defense early on will be crucial.

Nearing Halftime

Here's where we see each defense bringing more pressure on the opposing quarterback. Each defense will be so focused on not allowing any late first half points because second half momentum is extremely vital to the final quarter.

Here, if anything happens, a big first down will set up a field goal, but that's about it. And a touchdown will only be given up if either defense takes a risk in trying to cause an ill-advised turnover. That being said, just because it's the Super Bowl doesn't mean "go big or go home."

This portion of the game is where the smartest football has to be played because each team is looking for that little sway of confidence/momentum before halftime.

Regardless of the score, the Patriots will begin to air it out a little more, and the Giants will slow it down. Depending on how the defenses adjust in coverage will dictate whether the extra pressure actually proves beneficial.

Third Quarter

This is sort of the setup quarter because along the same lines as the first half ended, making a crucial mistake leading into the final quarter can kill a teams swagger.

Of the entire game, this will be the most strategically planned quarter, as each team sets up play calls here to make a strong move in the fourth quarter. The tendencies of these 15 minutes will be monitored carefully, and you don't want to hint anything away.

On the flip side, whoever takes a chance and executes in this quarter will gain a significant edge by its end. For New England, it's sufficient ball control and pass protection while Tom Brady takes more than a few shots downfield.

As for the Giants, it's not only pressuring Brady, but also trying to leak the running backs out as receivers but limiting Eli's pass protection. As we saw against San Francisco, if you blitz him, the protection will breakdown and Manning will get knocked around.

Crunch-Time

This part of the game is roughly the final five to eight minutes.

Obviously, both Brady and Manning will want the ball last in a close, non high-scoring affair, but having the lead, no matter when it is, is all that matters.

The tricky aspect here is playing to win, as opposed to playing not to lose. Whoever has the lead must simply keep attacking and being rather aggressive.

However, that doesn't always mean throwing the ball. Calling smart running plays off tackle, cut-backs and tosses, not just straight dives or traps. Also, play-action pass could prove deadly here and could close the game out.

This final act of the game is where the most effective and confident play calls for either team on either side of the line of scrimmage must happen. Failure to produce will simply determine the game.

Prediction

As you can see, it's not so much going to be an aerial assault as it is a very risky and strategically devised chess-match. We have to remember that these may be inter-conference opponents, but they know one another very well.

For one, they've already met in a Super Bowl and also met earlier this season. Not to mention, they're practically identical in philosophy. On offense it's pass-oriented and defensively it's attack the quarterback despite the vulnerability against the pass.

Oh yeah, and the head coaches Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick know each other arguably better than any other pair of coaches in the league. Plus, they go way back to the late 1980s.

Patriots 27, Giants 23

Take the Patriots against the spread as well as the "under"

John Rozum on Twitter.