Notre Dame Football: The Fighting Irish Have a Lot to Overcome in 2012

I live in Michigan, and even aside from the unsightly 10 pounds of beer and bean dip I put on through the bowl season, it is not easy to be me right now.

One of my close friends and rabid University of Michigan backers invited me over to watch UM play Virginia Tech in their unearned appearance in the Sugar Bowl. As a reward for going, I learned that a Hokie is some sort of turkey-like bird, making my eternal bitterness that ND’s mascot is a small annoying guy in a green vest with a bad beard a bit easier to take.

As we all know, the Mitten State’s largest weasels won an outstandingly error-filled debacle with tremendously bad QB play from Denard Robinson and a porous defense, yet claimed 11 wins in new coach Brady Hoke's first year as head coach of the furry bastards.

As we all know, one of those wins was a win over ND at the Big House in one of the most embarrassing fourth quarter defensive collapses ever.

The UM game was the follow up to watching MSU play just slightly less poorly in its win over SEC runner-up Georgia to cap a 10-win season, which included a poorly played loss to the Fighting Irish in South Bend that ND survived primarily due to an 88 yard kickoff return and a 94 yard pick-six to offset some extremely mediocre QB play.

I on the other hand, was still putting out the flames from watching the QB circus/ loss to Florida State in the Chumps Sports Bowl that left the Irish smarting at 8-5 for the second year in a row.

In both instances, the Wolverine and Sparty contingents wanted to know in their most patronizing tone, “Why didn’t ND have a 10-win season?”

I told all who would care to listen that ND had some bad breaks but is primed and ready for a BCS run.

Even I don‘t believe me.

Statistics Don't Lie

Superficially (Kardashian level superficial here), the 2011 Fighting Irish were pretty decent.

For the most part, ND’s squad performed fairly well. The Irish scored three more points per game than they did in 2010 to chime in at a reasonable if uninspiring 29.2 points per game,.

The Irish defense gave up 20.7 points per outing, only slightly higher than the 20.2 average logged by the defense in 2010 while also giving up 13 less yards per game.

Notre Dame finished with the 49th best scoring offense and the 25th best scoring defense in the country on the way to an 8-win season, matching its 2010 total.

Statistics Lie All the Time

While the overall numbers don’t look bad, the 2011 Irish often did.

In terms of disciplined play, the Irish looked sloppy and the underlying numbers bore that out. ND had 22 fumbles and lost 12, and penalties increased from 58 to 83 ypg from 2010 to 2011. Most of the penalties were not aggressive, just plain stupid, and occurred at the worst possible times—killing drive after drive and extending opponent‘s drives time after time.

Despite the boatload of interceptions the Irish threw in 2010, even interceptions increased by one to total 17 in 2011. QB play was outstanding against bottom feeders and often embarrassing against actual college defenses.

If we got a nickel for every time Tommy Rees panicked and chucked it into the stands, we could have all bought our own college team, just like the SEC does.

While the offense sputtered and fired, the veteran defense that was now in its second year in Diaco’s feared 3-4 scheme was more of the same, and often much less.

The Irish forced one less fumble and had 10 less interceptions in 2011.They had one less sack, and two more tackles for loss—grossly disappointing numbers for a team that returned almost the entire defensive unit and boasted some highly touted freshmen studs to back them up.

The aggressiveness that was advertised as a mountainful of wild gorillas on crack backed by crazed cheetahs was closer to a cuddly family of pandas enjoying a bushel of bamboo next to their friends from the sloth family.

Special teams were especially ugly—so ugly that NBC started going to commercial breaks at the end of third downs and would skip field goals altogether in favor of a more visually appealing series of GEICO cave man commercials.

The punt return game was a running joke all year long—without Michael Floyd’s big day returning punts against FSU, the punt return team averaged 0.3 per return, the same number you get if you get one punt stuck in your facemask, spin around and fall on your ass. The field goal unit dropped from 19 for 20 in 2010, to 10 for 16 in 2011, with a number of chip shots sailing wide.

Despite a four-credit course covering nothing but “How Not to Kick It Out of Bounds,“ the kickoff team consistently booted it into the stands for no known reason. Punting and punt coverage ranged from horrible to mediocre to average.

In the one statistic the Irish did not want to be consistent, ND was consistent: 2010 Fighting Irish, eight wins. 2011 Fighting Irish, eight wins.

I Believe What I See

Most disconcerting about the 2011 Irish was watching the incredibly inconsistent play in all facets of the game.

Trust me, I wore dark glasses at bars during game days for good reason.

Every game had a bagful of muffs, missed blocks and poor coverage, bad penalties, struggling punters and kickers, and generally horrible execution.

And that great offense we were supposed to see?

The up-tempo offense rarely made it past the speed of a slow waltz by my drunk Uncle Frank.

For the most part, the decent offensive numbers were really just an illusion fed by padding stats against the worst defenses on the schedule. To make my point, play against the likes of Air Force, Purdue, Navy and Maryland was outstanding, averaging just under 50 points a game against the country’s 59th, 63rd, 78th and 102nd worst defenses in 2011.

Against the rest of the schedule, ND averaged barely over 20 points per game, and those 20 points were almost exclusively Rees staring down Floyd or Eifert and throwing into coverage, despite 20 or 30 defenders and half the opposing coaching staff in the way.

Defensively, ND had its moments, but Diaco’s team looked suspiciously like Eastern Michigan on the first day of spring practice against solid offensive teams. Even in the second year with returning veterans running the same schemes, ND’s linebackers and secondary were consistently lost and so far out of position that most of the secondary had to get a bus ride back from Cleveland after several home games.

USC ran over us and passed around us all day long. Stanford toyed with us and won by two touchdowns despite an incredibly conservative game plan. Air Force put up 565 yards on us, and Michigan and one of the worst passing QBs in the country lit us up for 452 yards and 35 points.

Even grossly offensively-challenged teams like Boston College, South Florida and Wake Forest used short passing games that our linebackers simply could not cover, and our secondary seemed incapable of pressing coverage against anyone that felt compelled to run deep or actually had the audacity to cut during the course of a route.

ND Isn't Terrible

With all its warts, ND was still a couple of untimely fumbles from a 10-win year. They competed for stretches against quality teams, and beat a good MSU squad. Against lesser teams they could look downright dominating on both sides of the ball.

This recruiting class is already solid and could get even better. With the exception of Michael Floyd and an underperforming set of DBs, ND is returning a lot of offensive and defensive personnel that saw considerable time in Kelly’s and Diaco’s systems.

ND clearly has a lot of potential going into 2012.

In light of these facts, I would tell the Wolverine and Sparty faithful we will smoke them in 2012, if not for two problems. Unfortunately, they are big problems, and one is the same one Kelly has had and hasn’t been able to overcome since he walked in the doors of the Gug.

ND Still Doesn't Have a QB

No college team can win without a quarterback, and Notre Dame is no exception to the rule. For 2012, ND will be going into the season with a quarterback controversy for the third straight year.

I have yet to determine what Brian Kelly or anyone ever saw in Tommy Rees, but yet with Dayne Crist off to Kansas in hopes of clicking his ruby slippers and granting Charlie Weis‘ wish, Rees remains the only candidate on the roster with any real experience running Kelly’s offense.

That’s a very bad thing.

Rees' lack of Division I level mobility, arm strength, speed and pocket awareness have become painfully obvious to everyone, especially defensive coordinators, and his 22 interceptions and five fumbles in 16 starts are massive testaments to his inability to protect the ball.

Rees has shown nothing but panic and mistakes under pressure, and his 22 interceptions could easily be double that if opposing secondaries could catch a wounded duck every third time.

Against MSU, Pitt, BC, Stanford, USC and FSU, Rees was flat-out awful, clearly intimidated and generally overwhelmed athletically.

The few instances where a QB run has come into play have been nothing short of comical—300-pound defensive ends look like track stars when running after Tommy.

Yet, as of right now, he is ND’s No. 1 option, and if the Champs Sports Bowl is any indication, for reasons unknown to all humanity, Kelly is still committed to the notion that Rees will develop into a solid Division I QB.

Kelly has invested a lot of time and his personal reputation in making Tommy Rees into a college QB, so don't expect Kelly to drop Rees like a bad date anytime soon.

Part of that may be the alternatives. Andrew Hendrix shows a great arm and solid athleticism with almost no experience in running Kelly’s offense (let's take a moment again to give Brian Kelly thanks for ignoring his backups and giving Rees practically every game rep last year, even though there was plenty of mop up time in blowouts against Purdue, Navy, Air Force and Maryland.).

Included in the “no experience” category is Everett Golson, an athletic but unknown quantity that has never taken a snap in a college game.

And anyone thinking Gunner Kiel will master an offense like Kelly’s while adjusting to the college game has a short memory of what a freshman QB with great tools looks like—see Brady Quinn, Jimmy Clausen or any freshman trying to start for a national title contender in a tough conference in the last 50 years or so.

When looking at the prospects for improved quarterback play in 2012, all I can say is "Ouch."

Remember 2011?

Remember how ND Nation felt at the start of 2011?

We were only losing two starters, Dayne Crist was healthy with Rees as a solid backup if needed and the defense looked Alabama-esque for the last five games to close out 2011.

The schedule was tough but doable by all accounts, and ND Nation was ready to announce their long-awaited return to national prominence with authority.

Then they started the games and ruined everything.

Even with the stars aligned, ND looked pedestrian against anybody worth a damn, and in many cases equally crappy against teams that weren‘t.

Case in point, Notre Dame only played six teams with winning records in 2011. They lost to four of them as well as losing to a 5-7 (1-6 Big East) South Florida stinkball.

With Tommy Rees handing out free footballs all year long, with the exception of MSU at home, ND couldn’t beat anybody good, and often struggled against some very poor competition.

Despite a veteran team and a relatively favorable schedule, the Irish sputtered to an eight-win year that included several press conferences where “ugly win” was pretty much all Brian Kelly would say.

As a fan base, we are supportive of ND, and many are giving Kelly and his staff the benefit of the doubt, but objectively, we all know we saw a lot of ugly football in 2011.

No makeup Snooki ugly.

Graduation Losses Plus the Schedule from Hell

So in 2011, ND returns everyone except one upper deck usher against a soft schedule (by ND standards) and goes 8-5.

What about 2012?

Currently, ND still does not have a QB that has shown he can play college football against the big boys, their top receiver will be in the NFL, their most physical running back is gone and most of an already average secondary graduates.

Sorry, but Kelly hasn’t shown me that he has the chops and the staff to overcome those issues.

In fact, in any year those issues would be reason for real concern—in 2012 it’s reason to hide your ND jersey in the attic on Saturdays.

Why?

The 2012 schedule is arguably tougher than everyone’s but the Packers’. ND plays lots of real teams that will be hard to beat—gone is Air Force and their 175-pound linebackers and freshmen safeties. South Florida's pathetic offense is back in its own bullcrap. 2-10 Maryland with its lousy defense and even lousier uniforms is off to stink up the ACC.

Forget about the fact the Irish offense stunk as ND escaped with close wins against Wake Forest, Pitt and BC, those have to be gimme‘s this year if ND is to make it to .500.

Other than a routine Purdue squad and an undermanned Navy squad, the rest of ND’s schedule is a meat grinder.

BYU finished 10-3 last year, and we add a 6-6 athletic Miami squad that beat Ohio State and lost all six games by eight points or less. MSU returns most of its offense, a devastating defense and plays at night at home, where only holding penalties against ND are allowed and a particularly horrendous call against the Irish late in the fourth quarter is routinely referred to by Spartan fans as "part of the game."

USC will be in the Colliseum and in the hunt for the national title with Matt Barkley back. Michigan returns a busload from its 11-2 squad and No. 7 Stanford keeps most of its roster besides Andrew Luck.

Did I mention we play Oklahoma on the road and Landry Jones didn‘t go pro either?

That disappointing eight wins we got in 2010 and 2011 will look real pretty damn good in 2012.

Reason to Hope

On the plus side, the Fighting Irish are getting much-improved talent over prior years, and the quality of the athletes is more than sufficient to build a sound BCS program.

After watching Diaco’s watered down 3-4 and passive secondary for two years now, the offseason coaching shakeup can do nothing but improve a fairly weak staff, and may eventually lead to some real (and needed) change down the road.

The untimely fumbles and returns for TDs that helped doom the 2011 Irish are not likely to reoccur.

The inordinate amount of injuries and playing of first year talent that contributed to the mistakes and lack of discipline in 2011 will contribute to the team’s experience and overall maturity going forward.

Despite the loss of both corners, an underrated Jonas Gray, and stud receiver Michael Floyd, ND has a solid nucleus of veteran players returning in 2012 on both sides of the ball.

Reason to Pray

To everyone’s disappointment, the quarterback issue was not resolved in 2011, and the rugged 2012 schedule will make it tough for Kelly to work in a new signal caller without taking a real beating in the W’s column, which we all know would be a death knell in the third year of his program.

Given Kelly’s demonstrated focus on winning now (and to prove himself right), don’t be surprised if he continues to play Rees as his most experienced option in 2012, despite Rees’ continued mediocre play, limited upside and historically poor ball protection.

With Navy and Purdue slated to open 2012, it is possible Kelly might grow a pair, admit the Rees Project didn’t work and get Golson and/or Hendrix ready to play QB at the collegiate level with Kiel waiting in the wings.

Whether that happens or not, expect 2012 to look eerily similar to the 2011 and 2010 Irish on the way to the same eight wins.

Let’s all hope Brian Kelly and his staff prove me wrong.