EPL Week 23: Everton vs. Manchester City and 5 Hot-to-Trot Tips

These two sides meet in this Week 23 clash with both desperately needing the three points that are on offer.

For Everton, it's a chance to keep turn their 2012 start around, and steer well clear of the dreaded relegation zone. And for City? After their weekend Carling Cup exit, winning the Premier League will be their sole focus and with cross-town rivals United breathing down their necks, three points are invaluable every week.

So with the three points on the line, and both sides definitely confident at taking them home with them, this one could prove to be an interesting matchup.

Whether you're a diehard supporter or just a casual observer, here are five hot-to-trot money-making tips that are sure to make this game even greater for you.

Head-to-head

These two sides met back in September, and it was Manchester City that prevailed with a comfortable 2-0 victory over the Toffees.

And once again, they are the team to catch in this one.

They are the league leaders and have all the form and all the goals to take home the win in this one. Yet whilst they are dominant, it does appear that if you're going to take points off City, it's got to happen away from home.

They are yet to drop a single point at home. They are also averaging more than three goals per game at home, and are conceding an average of one goal every two games when they play in Manchester.

But away from home — whilst still dominant — those numbers drop down to around 2.5 goals per match, and over one goal conceding.

As I said, both still very impressive numbers, but have a deeper look at that away record for a moment.

In their last six matches, City have only managed two wins—both of which were far from the clinical performance that we know is within them.

They scored a 1-0 victory over lowly Wigan recently, but prior to that, dropped points to other lower sides in Sunderland and West Bromwich Albion.

Before Christmas they had a thrilling 3-2 victory on the road over Queens Park Rangers, and dropped all three points to Chelsea.

Yes they are the league leaders and are the side to catch coming in to the business end of the season, but they are nowhere near their best away from home.

Fortunately for City though, even with their away record, I can't see them dropping points to Everton, who, simply put, have had another terrible season.

The Toffees have conceded a goal in all but one of their home matches, and expect City to find the back of the net in this one as well. Once that happens, they'll have too much class and skill to let Everton back in to the game.

Hot-to-trot tip: Manchester City to win

Halftime Result

As I mentioned above, I fully expect City to get on the score sheet first in this one; the real question is just when are they going to do it.

City have scored first in 86.4 percent of their matches this season, and Everton's opponents have done so on over 60 percent of occasions, so City to score first seems like a safe play, especially when you consider that an opponent of Manchester City has never led in to the halftime break this season.

But I don't think that first goal will come until after the halftime interval. Everton, for all their struggles this year, have only allowed an average of 1.18 goals per game at home, with an equal spread coming both before and after the interval.

City should also help the lack of goals in the first half, as out of all the goals they've notched up this season, nearly 70 percent of those have come in the second half.

The last time these two played, the deadlock wasn't broken until the 68th minute and whilst I don't think it will take City that long to break Everton this time, I expect them to hold out until after half time.

If you're feeling ambitious, take the 0-0 draw as the half-time result, but the safer play is just to take the halftime draw as a result in to Manchester City as the full time result.

Hot-to-trot tip: Draw as the halftime result

Total goals for the match

After failing to progress in the Cup by allowing Liverpool to find the back of the net twice, I expect a strong showing from the Manchester backs, as I imagine they see this as a game to post up a clean sheet. Everton's lack of firepower up front—even with Landon Donovan—should see City be clinical across the backs.

Which means to crack the 2.5 goal mark, City are going to need to score three times, which is something we know is well within them, having scored three or more on 14 occasions already this year.

But Everton won't let three goals in against them, even to Manchester City. They've only let in more than two goals once this year, and that was back in October last year.

Despite just over a quarter of City matches going under 2.5 goals on the road, that number is up over a third, and with 68.2 percent of Everton matches going under, I'm happy to take it.

City will be clinical rather than explosive. With the Premier League their sole focus, I don't think we're going to see the goals from City in weeks to come that we have seen from them so far this year.

Take the under 3.5 goals if you're playing it safe, but the under 2.5 goals should still be a comfortable option in this one.

Hot-to-trot tip: Under 2.5 goals for the match

First goal scorer

In games gone by, I used to love this option in Manchester City matches because when they put four or five past a defense, you're more than likely to back yourself a goal scorer.

Yet because I don't expect the goals to feature in this one as much as Everton's frustration up front will, it does become a little trickier, so we're looking to one of two guys really to do the goal scoring for the Citizens.

Aguero and Dzeko have been prolific goal scorers for City this year, with both racking double figure totals already. And with last week's hero Balotelli suspended, these two are going to be the go-to-men.

And on the road, Dzeko has been in stunning form.

Out of the 11 goals he's netted already this season, all but two of them have come on the road, and after strong performances against Tottenham and Manchester United away from home earlier in the year, he seems like good value to get a goal in this one.

It's harder with not as many goals to feature in this one, so take Dzeko to score the first goal of the match, rather than just to score at anytime. If he is going to score, it may very well be the first goal, so the safer move is to take him as the first goal scorer.

Hot-to-trot tip: Edin Dzeko as the first goal scorer of the match

Final score

Bringing it all together then, I expect Manchester City to win, and whilst I expect them to manage comfortably on the pitch, I don't expect that to be reflected with an abundance of goals.

I expect Joe Hart to notch up another clean sheet, and whilst the goals won't be as dominant, Dzeko and Aguero will run riot over an Everton defense that should hold strong for a while before cracking in the second half.

Low-scoring games might not be the strength of Manchester City, but winning definitely is, and the three points gained from this one heap the pressure back on United to keep chase as the Premier League race continues to heat up.

Final score: Manchester City to win 1-0

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