Super Bowl Odds 2012: Why You Should Take the over on the Game

I tried to convince myself that the New York Giants and New England Patriots would dip below the 55.5 points set as the over/under this year.

And I tried to convince myself that history suggested they would stay under, seeing as last year's Super Bowl was the first to exceed the 55-point mark since 2004.

Moreover, I tried to convince myself that defense wins championships.

But I just couldn't do it.

I was impressed with the Patriots defense against the Baltimore Ravens, but I think their secondary will struggle to slow down Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.

Meanwhile, I've been impressed with the Giants defense and the pressure they generate on the quarterback, but if they don't consistently sustain that pressure with only four rushers, I believe Tom Brady and all of the Patriots weapons in the passing game will skewer the New York Giants linebackers and safeties.

Vernon Davis smoked the Giants for 112 yards and two touchdowns on only three receptions. And the Patriots have two elite tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, not to mention slot receiver extraordinaire Wes Welker.

I think the tendency when analyzing this game will be to focus on the fact that, at least on paper, the Giants defense matches up better with the Patriots offense than the Patriots defense does against the Giants offense.

On paper, I agree.

But the Patriots are brilliant in drawing up a game plan to attack the opposing team's weaknesses on defense. Also, giving Bill Belichick two weeks to scheme is always dangerous for opposing offenses.

The first time these teams met was like two games in one. For the first three quarters, the teams were engaged in a surprising defensive battle, and the Giants led 10-3.

Then the offenses began clicking, the teams combined to score 31 points in the fourth quarter and Eli Manning led a game-winning drive to secure a 24-20 win for the Giants.

I know what you're saying—that's only 44 points.

But I expect this game will be more like the fourth quarter than the first three quarters from that game, and the passing attacks of each team will be too much for the opposing defense to slow down.

Bet on a shootout. And enjoy the fireworks.

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