Ravens vs. Patriots: Ray Rice and Biggest Keys to a Baltimore Victory

The Baltimore Ravens are seven-point underdogs in the AFC Championship game, but they are more than capable of upsetting the New England Patriots.

Of course, it won't be easy. The Patriots have won nine games in a row, including last week's 45-10 spanking of the Denver Broncos. Tom Brady is on a rampage, and New England's offense is putting up 37.3 points per game during their streak.

The Ravens, however, have all the ingredients necessary to advance to the Super Bowl. 

Here are three keys to a Baltimore upset.

Ray Rice Must Dominate

Ray Rice must have a big game if the Ravens are going to have any chance at winning.

In 2010, Baltimore beat New England in the playoffs thanks to 159 yards from Rice. He'll need to have a similar performance on Sunday.

Joe Flacco is talented, but the Ravens are screwed if they try to get in a shootout with Brady. They need to eat up clock and keep Brady on the sidelines. The only way to do that is by giving the ball to Rice early and often.

In the regular season, he finished second in rushing yards (1,364) and third in rushing touchdowns (12). He can stake his claim as the NFL's best running back by leading his team to the Super Bowl today.

Convert on Third Down

The Ravens converted on 42.4 percent of their third downs in the regular season, good for seventh best in the NFL.

However, they have the lowest third-down conversion rate in the postseason after getting first downs on just 4-of-16 attempts against Houston. They'll have to improve on that number if they want to advance to the Super Bowl.

As I said above, Baltimore must keep Brady and the Pats offense off the field at all costs. If they can convert third downs at a high rate, they will extend drives, wear down New England's defense and ensure that Brady gets as few opportunities as possible.

Win the Turnover Battle

Baltimore will be in for a long day if they can't force the Patriots to commit a few turnovers.

In their 2010 playoff matchup, the Ravens terrorized Brady. They forced him to fumble once and intercepted three of his passes. It was Brady's third three-interception playoff game of his career.

With Lardarius Webb and Ed Reed lurking in the secondary, the Ravens can cause him trouble again.

On the offensive side, Baltimore needs Flacco to be smart with the ball.

He doesn't have to be great, or even good. As long as he doesn't turn the ball over, the Ravens will be in prime position to pull off the upset and advance to the Super Bowl.