Patriots vs Ravens: Must-Know Statistical Keys to the Game

The phrase "any given Sunday" may have achieved cliche status , but it's also arguably the most universal law in all of football. The only thing that's guaranteed is the simple fact that nothing is guaranteed.

This is a mightily important lesson for anyone involved with the game to learn and acknowledge. For New England Patriots players, fans and ownership it's been a lesson learned many times before.

In addition, the team and those involved with it have learned many other lessons the hard way since last winning the championship in 2004.

The 2005 season proved the mortality of a once undefeated quarterback, 2006 served as a reminder that no lead is safe, 2007 illustrated just how hard perfect is to come by, 2008 reiterated the importance of taking nothing for granted, 2009 displayed just how much fun life is without Wes Welker, while 2010 was a wake up call to those not taking the AFC East seriously.

It's been six long years now, and any and all dynasty talk is now a thing of the past, literally and figuratively. Of course New England is a perennial playoff contender, but each team this franchise had fielded since 2004 has been fatally flawed.

The Patriots have a chance Sunday to punch their tickets to Indianapolis, the site of what could be their sixth Super Bowl berth since 1996. To do so, however, is no small feat as the 13-4 Baltimore Ravens are making their way to Foxborough.

After pouring over the available statistical data I've come across some interesting nuggets of information which outline the key factors for the Patriots in this match up.

Limiting the impact of Ray Rice

• In the nine games that Rice didn’t score a rushing touchdown, the Ravens are 5-4.

• In the eight games that Rice carried the ball 20 or fewer times, the Ravens are 4-4.

New England has two options on the table if they're going to achieve this goal.

Loading the line with as many big bodies as possible is one option. The Patriots ranked middle of the pack against the run in the regular season, however, and they didn't fair much better in their first postseason performance.

The Denver Broncos were able to put up 144 yards during their divisional round loss, a slight improvement for a New England defense which allowed 252 yards against them just a few weeks earlier.

The Patriots' offense can also limit Rice's touches by dictating the tempo of the game and by getting out to an early lead. Forcing Baltimore to play catch up and go pass-heavy can only play to their advantage. That brings us to our next factor:

Making Joe Flacco Beat You

• Flacco has thrown for one or zero touchdowns in 10 games this season.

• The Ravens are 7-0 when Flacco doesn’t throw an INT, but 6-4 when he throws one or more.

A lot has been made of Flacco's record in both the regular season and playoffs, but he's rarely asked to put the team on his shoulders and as the Raven's record this season indicates his performance plays a heavy hand in his team's losses.

By limiting Rice's impact the Patriots can put the onus on Flacco to carry the offense. It sounds counter-intuitive considering the year long struggles of the New England secondary, but it's a pick your poison scenario and Flacco is far less toxic. 

Streaks Matter

• Over the last nine games (including playoffs) the Patriots are 9-0 while the Ravens are 7-2.

• The Patriots have allowed 18.6 points a game over this span while the Ravens have allowed 16.5.

• The Patriots have scored 37.6 points a game over this span while the Ravens have scored 21.1.

Most of the experts have agreed that New England should be favored and Vegas has the spread sitting at seven, but we can make these number speak a little more. 

By taking the Patriots' average of 37.3 points per game over the last nine weeks and averaging it with the Ravens' 16.5 points per game allowed during that same stretch we get 26.9, a reasonable projected number to expect when pitting a high powered offense against a stout veteran defense.

To find the projected score for Baltimore we do the same only backwards this time. New England allowed an average of 18.6 points over the last nine games while the Ravens scored an average of 21.1 points a game. These two figures averaged together is 19.8.

Rounding gets us to a projected score of 27-20 which covers the spread exactly. I'm comfortable predicting that the game will be in this neighborhood as I don't expect a blowout on either side of the ball.

Baltimore cannot be seen as simply an impediment to the Super Bowl though, it will take everything the Patriots have to move on and represent the AFC. Those out there predicting a cake walk for New England on Sunday may find themselves quite surprised how hard the Patriots have to work for a win.

Interested in reading more by this Once Featured Columnist? Check out more of Aaron Dodge's work on Bleacher Report.

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