NFL Playoff Prediction: Defense Will Be Key to Super Bowl Hopes

The old cliché “defense wins championships” will be on full display in the 2012 AFC and NFC championship games.

Aside from the Patriots, the Ravens, 49ers and Giants are all well known for their hard-nosed, hard- hitting defenses.

While there is some very good offense that will be sprinkled in, I expect defense will be the major factor in determining who represents their respective conferences in the Super Bowl.

Let’s break down how defense will rule the day in each game:

NFC Championship: Giants vs. 49ers

Giants

There’s no doubt that this defense starts and ends with the defensive front. The Giants apply pressure unlike any team in the league, and their front line alone can throw a quarterback off rhythm.

This is a defense that held the high-flying Atlanta Falcons to just two points in the first round, and then rattled the normally unflappable Aaron Rodgers into 26-of-46 passing for just 264 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. They also forced three fumbles and sacked Rodgers four times, including two from Osi Umenyiora.

They’re going to have to deal with a stellar Frank Gore-led running game from the 49ers, but don’t be surprised if they disrupt that and cause a ton of problems in the backfield for quarterback Alex Smith.

49ers

This defense is tenacious, and it doesn’t stop. The 49ers can dominate an offensive line up front, boast arguably the best linebacker in the game in Patrick Willis and have a physically imposing and very talented secondary.

There is literally not one weakness that the Giants can expose, so they will really have to step it up and find ways to be creative on offense and get receivers open for Eli Manning.

This is a tall task for a defense that forced Drew Brees into two interceptions and held a good Saints running game to just 37 yards.

The Giants love to run the ball and use it to set up the pass. It won’t be that simple this week.

AFC Championship: Ravens vs. Patriots

Ravens

Everybody knows that the Ravens are a defense-first team, but this is going to be their biggest test to date.

They have the task of stopping a quarterback in Tom Brady who just threw for 363 yards and six touchdowns against the Denver Broncos last weekend.

If there is a defense that can do it though, it’s the Ravens. Led by the ever fired-up Ray Lewis and Ed Reed—this defense has the personnel to stick with the Patriots offense and, most importantly, stop tight end Rob Gronkowski, who has become near unstoppable.

They are a veteran defense that knows all the tricks in the book. Expect it to pull them all out against Brady and company.

Patriots

Simply put, New England has the worst defense in the playoffs and I don’t think that’s a stretch. I’m pretty sure they accept it and try to find ways to work around it, and with an offense like they have, frankly it doesn’t matter much.

It will matter in this game though, as I don’t expect their offense to put up 45 on the Ravens.

The Patriots' primary focus will have to be stopping Ray Rice and the Ravens' run game, as the rest of the offense runs through that.

For as bad as their secondary has been, they did rank No. 17 this season in rushing defense, allowing 117.1 rush yards per game, so expect them to focus heavily on that.

If they can focus on taking away the run option and force the game into quarterback Joe Flacco’s hands, they will have a good chance at being effective against this offense.

Schedule:

Ravens vs. Patriots: Sunday, Jan. 22, at 3 p.m. EST on CBS

Giants vs. 49ers: Sunday, Jan. 22, at 6:30 p.m. EST on FOX

Conclusion

It’s funny, because had you asked me a week ago, I would have said defense being the key wasn’t the case in this year’s NFL, and that defensive dominance was slowly being phased out or outshadowed by brilliant offense.

Oh, how wrong I was.

I firmly believed that with the way offenses like the Packers and Saints were dominating the league, even the best defenses didn’t have a chance to stick with them.

I went as far as to tweet that opinion, and as proof to my humility and willingness to admit that I was wrong, here it is:

The simple fact of the matter is that a great defense can still trump a great offense.

That will be on fully display this weekend, and I have no doubt the better defenses will determine who ends up in the Super Bowl.