NFL Playoff Picks 2012: Why the 49ers Will Beat the Giants

Once again the San Francisco 49ers are hosting an NFL playoff game against the New York Giants. It is the second NFC Championship game between the two and is slated to be a exciting nail-biter.

Each team has their strengths but San Francisco is just as good, if not better than New York in all facets of the game.

So, here are reasons why the 'Niners win the NFC over the Giants.

Rush Defense

Make no mistake about it, the New York Giants have a solid rush defense and front four. But they're still a few steps back of San Francisco's ability to stop the run.

During the regular season the 49ers allowed just 77.3 rush yards per game and only three rushing TDs all season (zero through Week 14). And although Giants running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are a good duo, they too will get shutdown.

San Francisco's scheme isn't complex. They simply are excellent at controlling/filling gaps. The reason why they're so damn good is because everyone does their job on virtually every snap. The 49ers' front seven is in such synchronization against the run it's like work of art.

And with middle linebacker Patrick Willis—who's averaged almost 140 tackles per season—conducting the orchestra, New York must rely on their potent passing game to have a chance.

What's great about the 49ers front seven is that they don't excessively run-blitz to force an offense to pass. Willis has great reactionary skills and the front four are virtually impenetrable against the run.

It also doesn't help New York that they finished dead last in rushing by averaging only 89.2 yards per game on the ground. While the Giants weren't healthy all season and  had a great passing offense was, more production on the ground was expected.

Alex Smith's Mobility

There is a difference between being mobile and elusive, which Eli Manning is.

Alex Smith is mobile, providing a scrambling threat and, as we saw against New Orleans, designed run plays for him do work. Obviously, we can't expect too many more of those. But if offers another area that New York must prepare to defend.

As for the Giants pass rush, they will get their pressure as San Francisco's passing game isn't on the level of Green Bay's. Still, Smith is just as mobile as Aaron Rodgers and has a strong enough arm to make tough throws on the run.

The key for New York is having a linebacker spy while keeping contain on the edges. The last thing the Giants need is for Smith to get outside and see if New York's in man coverage. If so, he's taking off for some solid yards.

That being said, anticipate some speedy sprint/roll out plays from San Francisco to utilize Smith's pass-run threat. Plays that develop quick to negate any chance of a pass rush from New York.

With quick receiving targets in Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Ted Ginn, the 49ers can add a different dimension to this game, offensively.

Ted Ginn Jr.

Whether it's in the return game or widening the field as a horizontal rushing threat, San Francisco has a advantage because of Ted Ginn Jr.

As a team, the 49ers ranked No. 5 in averaging 12.4 yards per punt return and No. 1 in averaging 27.2 yards per kickoff return. On the flip side, New York averaged just 6.1 yards per punt return (ranked No. 29) and 23.3 yards per kickoff return (ranked No. 22).

So, the 49ers have the edge in special teams and Ginn's double-duty returning threat provides San Francisco with increased odds of winning the field position battle.

On the year, Ginn averaged 12.3 yards per punt return (ranked No. 4) and 27.6 yards per kickoff return (ranked No. 3). He combined for 1,266 total return yards, scored twice and also provides a rushing threat.

Namely on jet sweeps, quick tosses and reverses, Ginn will be effective on the ground with his track speed that widens a defense and can prevent blitzing or take advantage of over-aggressiveness. And with that track speed, he also is a viable deep threat to stretch the field in passing situations.

This will open the underneath routes more for Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree.

Rush Offense

Likely the most obvious on the list, however, still a big reason why the San Francisco 49ers are in the NFC Championship game to begin with.

They finished the year ranked No. 8 in rushing by averaging almost 130 yards per game on the ground. New York on the other hand, ranked No. 19 against the rush and allowed over 120 rush yards per game.

Now, the Giants did shutdown Atlanta's Michael Turner in the wild card round and despite allowing almost 150 to Green Bay, almost 70 of the Packers rush yards came from Aaron Rodgers scrambling. As for the 49ers, it's actually their intention to run the ball so don't expect New York to shut em down for 60 minutes.

And with Alex Smith's mobility, that will deter New York from being their usual self in the trenches. Unlike Green Bay or Atlanta, San Francisco has been able to run the ball all season without much of an overly impressive passing game.

Against New York, that is the 49ers best option to move the ball and not sticking with what got them this far is a recipe for disaster. Expect some run-blitzes from the Giants but that will only setup the play-action pass for later in the game.

For the most part, San Francisco must stay balanced and get Frank Gore going early. Because that will allow the rest of coach Jim Harbaugh's gameplan to unfold accordingly as the game progresses.

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