New England Patriots: Should They Receive or Defer If They Win the Coin Toss?

The New England Patriots came out firing on all cylinders against the Denver Broncos, and if they want to fix the problematic slow starts, it may be as easy as receiving the ball first.

There are some definite advantages to deferring. The opportunity to score twice in a row, at the end of the first half and the beginning of the second half, is valuable. It allows the team to compensate for the slow starts that have become their trademark.

All season long, the Patriots have struggled in the first quarter of games. This is evidenced in their average of just 5.1 points in the first quarter across the season. To put that in perspective, the Patriots scored an average of 32.1 points per game in the regular season. They averaged 27 points combined in the second, third and fourth quarters.

The Patriots' opponents received 15 of 16 opening kickoffs during the regular season. The only time the Patriots received to open the game was against the Buffalo Bills. They scored 14 points in the first quarter, and set themselves up with an early 21-point lead.

The game against the Broncos was over before Tim Tebow even had the ball. Tom Brady marched the Patriots offense down the field in five plays that ate just 1:51 off the clock. In strikingly similar fashion, the Patriots scored 14 points in the first quarter.

All season long, fans have wondered about the slow starts, and receiving the ball may be the fix.

By the numbers, the argument is convincing enough. But receiving the ball to start the game plays into the strength of the team:

• The best unit, the offense, starts the game on the field. This allows the Patriots to dictate the tempo and send the message that the opponent must score touchdowns to keep up.
• Likewise, the defense plays better with a lead. Handing them an early lead allows them to play loose and play to win instead of not to lose.

The advantage that deferring creates has been evidenced time and time again; if the offense does come out flat, which it has at times this season, they have an opportunity to string together two scores while the opponent is left watching on the sidelines.

It then becomes a question of whether to risk that caveat for the sake of dictating the tempo.

Of course, it's hard to count on an offense scoring a touchdown on the opening drive, and the Patriots may not have that kind of success coming out of the gate against a dominant defensive team like the Ravens.

Belichick on Monday told WEEI.com's The Big Show, "You never really could go into a game saying, 'We're going to get 14 points in two minutes without a turnover.' Sometimes it just happens that way, but it's hard to count on that. When you play a good complementary game like that—good defense, quick turnover, change of possession, offense takes advantage of the good field position, pump it in there—good things are going to happen."

But if the Patriots are able to set the tempo early, they won't have to worry about any of that. They haven't had to worry about it either time they've received the ball to start the half.

And if they're able to score quickly, they can also force the ball into the tentative hands of quarterback Joe Flacco, which is favorable instead of having to worry about a heavy dose of running back Ray Rice.

And on that note, isn't it worth the risk? The Ravens would have a big opportunity to take the crowd out of the game with a solid, successful opening drive while also setting their own tempo. The strength of the Patriots is the offense, and it just makes sense to start the game with your best unit on the field, even if that means the Ravens fielding their own best unit to start the game.

Ray Lewis pointed out that the Patriots sent a message to the rest of the league with their dominant 45-10 win over the Broncos. The Patriots can use their first possession to send a message to the Ravens: Score touchdowns or lose.

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter.