Why Aging Boston Celtics Have No Chance During This Compressed NBA Season

The Boston Celtics are being considered by some as a dark horse candidate to win the title. They won't. There are two reason why. First, they are too old. Second, they are too different from the team that went to the finals just two years ago, even if they have some of the same players and the same head coach. 

On the first point they really are just too old. Based on the Basketball Prospectus weighted age, the Boston Celtics are 31.0, making them the second oldest team in the league. They are already too old and getting older, and it's their three most important players who are aging. 

Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen are 34, 35 and 36 respectively. Yes. Rajon Rondo has made the "Big Three" a "Big Four" but Rondo is just not enough of an offensive threat by himself to strike fear into the hearts of opponents. 

Last year the Celtics came out winning, starting off with a 9-2 record. They didn't lose their fifth game until the 29th game of the season. It was their infamous "switch" which they could turn on at will. 

Sure the Celtics could go through some struggles, but they had that "switch" that they'd just flipped on the year before. Everyone assumed it would get switched on again. 

During the postseason they had an excuse that wasn't entirely invalid. They were going against the Miami Heat with a one-armed point guard, and they still made the games competitive even if the series score didn't reflect that. 

There was another change going on that wasn't that visible though. Tom Thibodeau got hired by the Chicago Bulls and the identity of the Boston Celtics, the defense that dominated the league, left with him. The core of the team and Thibodeau's replacement, Lawrence Frank, knew and ran the same system, albeit with some slight adjustments. 

The Boston Celtics remained an elite defensive team last year, finishing second in defensive rating only to Thibodeau's Bulls. 

Then, for the second year in a row, the Celtics lost their defensive coach to another team as Frank was hired by the Detroit Pistons to be their new head coach. Enter Mike Longabardi, who has been with the team for a number of years.

In addition, the team apart from the Big Four has gone through some wholesale changes since they got to the finals. In fact, unless I'm mistaken, the only player other than the Big Four who played under Thibodeau is Marquis Daniels. 

This isn't just harping. The Boston Celtics defense has dropped from second to 20th. They have gone from second to 13th in defensive field-goal percentage. They are only 16th in turnover percentage. They are 21st in defensive rebound percentage at .728. They are .230 in free throws given up per field-goal attempt, only 21st in the league. 

That leaves them in the bottom third in three of the "four factors of winning" and in the bottom half in all four. All those things combined indicate that this isn't the result of some mere anomaly in the schedule or the absence of Pierce. The once elite defensive team is below average. 

With their horses to old to get it done on offense, and with the defense no longer executing at an elite level, this is a team that is going to be hovering right around the .500 mark all year. The Boston Celtics are simply no longer a threat to win it all.