NFL Playoff Predictions: Why Alex Smith, 49ers Must Throw to Beat New Orleans

It's quite the obvious game plan for San Francisco against New Orleans is to run the ball with Frank Gore. That's been the 49ers' best and most effective approach this season, so Gore will and should get his carries.

However, San Francisco must also throw the ball more than expected with Alex Smith.

Going up against the NFL's No. 30-ranked pass defense that allows almost 260 per game, why not take some chances? The Saints have one of the NFL's worst turnover differentials in minus-3 (ranks No. 20) and the 49ers are plus-28, which ranks No. 1.

Therefore, there's no reason why coach Jim Harbaugh can't give Smith the green light against The Big Easy. Here's why.

Unexpected Start

The Saints have to be expecting a heavy dose of Frank Gore early and often from San Francisco.

Doing so will make their vulnerable pass defense even more reluctant to give up yards. Now, don't expect Alex Smith to come out blazing, but he should have a good number of attempts in the first quarter.

At the start of this game, the 49ers do not want to be rush-heavy. To establish a passing game, the run will come throughout, but they can't overdo it. So, being slightly more reliant on Alex Smith early will benefit as the game progresses, not to mention his ability to buy time in and out of the pocket.

Their defense will slow down the Saints offense enough to give Smith more possessions than normal. With receiver Michael Crabtree and tight end Vernon Davis, New Orleans will have trouble stopping them with Gore's presence in the backfield.

If Alex Smith can get going quickly, his confidence will increase as the ground game has yet to really take over.

To Control the Game Tempo

Because of how explosive the Saints are on offense, although the 49ers will slow them down, it won't be so much that a strict rushing attack will keep San Francisco in the game. Which is why getting Alex Smith established early in the passing game is so crucial.

New Orleans is going to stack the box against Frank Gore and force Smith to beat them.

Then by the middle of the second quarter, the Saints will be expecting more passing from Smith as their own offense begins to build momentum. And once Drew Brees and Co. get going, they're virtually impossible to stop.

But, if New Orleans does get off to a slow start like they did last week against Detroit, the 49ers have the ability to widen the gap because of their ground game.

However, that will only happen if they throw early, then run later as the Saints are expecting Gore from the start.

Frank Gore Takes Over Late

Now we get to the part where the San Francisco rushing attack can take over. Provided that Alex Smith plays a good game, as he is capable of doing, along with the defense minimizing the damage from New Orleans, everyone will be sucking wind except Frank Gore.

Likely around late in the third quarter is when Gore can really become San Francisco's focus. The Saints won't respect the 49ers passing game much, which is why a more pass-balanced attack must happen in the early parts.

But even if San Francisco is down at this point, as long as it's within two possessions, they can make a comeback. And if they're winning, then it's basically game over as Gore dominates the Saints' deceivingly weak rush defense (allows almost five yards per carry).

Mostly between the tackles is where Gore does damage and when needed, it will set up some play-action to count on in crunch time.

We know that New Orleans will be airing it out all day and trying to set up the ground game late, as that's what they've done all season. Thing is, San Francisco's defense is much more capable of slowing down the Saints offense than the Saints defense is capable of shutting down the 49ers offense.

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