Alabama vs. LSU: Last-Second Expert Predictions for BCS Championship Game

I know, I know—the only prediction you care about for tonight's game is mine. So here you go:

The game will play out a lot like the first game, though touchdowns will actually be scored this time. LSU's option attack behind Jordan Jefferson and the the ever-present danger of Tyrann Mathieu returning punts will give Alabama fits all night. The Crimson Tide will move the ball behind a strong showing from Trent Richardson, but much like in the first matchup, key turnovers and missed opportunities will cost them.

In essence, LSU will lose another close and physical game because they make fewer mistakes.

Prediction: LSU 20, Alabama 14.

Okay, fine—you really just want to hear what "the experts" have to say?

Here you go.

Ralph Russo, Associated Press (via Nola.com): LSU, 20-16

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More points, same winner.

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Bruce Feldman, CBS (excerpt via CBSSports.com): Alabama, 21-16

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Maybe it's due to some kind of bizarro BCS karma that often seems to find the most awkward outcome that sparks the most controversy. Think about it: If LSU wins, clear-cut national champ. If Alabama wins, more debate will spew out from virtually every corner.

Trent Richardson did some damage the first time out, but it was really more as a receiver. I expect him to be even bigger factor for 'Bama this time around because they'll ride him more in the ground game, in hopes of opening up the passing game with the receivers. I think it's also really hard to beat a good team twice in the same season, and the Tide special teams won't have as bad a night this time around. They can't, can they?

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Pete Thamel, New York Times (via Nola.com): Alabama, 21-13

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The Tide will figure out how to stop LSU's only effective play (other than the punt), as they'll be prepared for Jordan Jefferson's option runs. Bama dominated the last game, and the 50-50 ball this time will go to the Tide.

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Edward Aschoff, ESPN (via the SEC Blog): LSU, 20-17

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Stopping LSU has proved futile for every team that has had to face the Tigers this season. From LSU’s hard-nosed running game to its ferocious defense, LSU has truly been a force to reckon with. I picked against the Tigers when these teams first met, and for good reason. Alabama had all the tools to be victor on that day. However, I was wrong and I don’t like to make the same mistake twice. LSU has proved itself too many times for me to pick against the Tigers in what will basically be a home game. This season has been too special for LSU to fall at the very end of one of the most demanding years in NCAA history. …  

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Pat Forde, Yahoo! (via Nola.com): LSU, 17-10

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Not sure why LSU has gone from favored to underdog while gaining at least some home-field advantage and playing its best quarterback for all four quarters. But I think the Tigers have gotten better since Nov. 5 and will show it Monday night. (And, yes, there will even be touchdowns in this game. But not many.)

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Chris Low, ESPN (via the SEC Blog): Alabama, 21-13 

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After bouncing back and forth, I’ve made my pick. It wasn’t easy even if we are in the Big Easy. In short, as good as LSU is and has been this season, Alabama is better. The Crimson Tide will be ready for the option this time on defense. They won’t bog down inside the 30 on offense, and aided by the fact that the game is being played indoors, the kickers won’t miss four field goals again. There’s no question that LSU drew the short end of the stick in having to beat Alabama again to win the national title, especially when you’re trying to beat Nick Saban three straight times. And beating Saban twice in the same season is unheard of. It will once again come down to a handful of plays, and when Alabama needs one, Trent Richardson will deliver this time. It’s too bad that one of these teams has to lose. But as I left Bourbon Street on Sunday night, the last thing I heard was “Sweet Home Alabama” blaring from one of the clubs. Revenge will indeed be sweet for the Crimson Tide. ...  

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Dennis Dodd, CBS Sports (via Nola.com): LSU, 21-17

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Because of LSU's running back depth, home field advantage and the Superdome turf. Speed kills, baby, especially these guys on artificial grass.

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Brett McMurphy, CBS Sports (excerpt via CBSSports.com): LSU, 24-14

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LSU coach Les Miles is 5-1 in bowl games, and in the past two seasons, the Tigers are a remarkable 13-2 against Top 25 Associated Press opponents, including 8-0 this season. The coverage skills of LSU's outstanding corners—Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu—will allow the Tigers to stack the box and slow down running back Trent Richardson, the Tide's top offensive threat.

All season, LSU has demonstrated it's the nation's best team. A win here validates the underrated Miles as one of the nation's premier coaches. Now, the Tigers are playing in the Superdome, their home away from home, against an opponent they already defeated on the road and they're an underdog? I've seen this movie before and know how it ends.

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Mike Lopresti, USA Today (via Nola.com): LSU, 20-17

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If the Tigers can beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa, they can do it in New Orleans.

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