Saints vs. 49ers: 6 Keys That Will Lead to a 49er Victory

This Saturday's divisional playoff game pits two teams against each other who are dominant on one side of the ball, and not so dominant on the other.

The Saints are one of the NFL's premier offensive powerhouses.  They throw the ball seemingly at will.  They take plenty of shots downfield and have more weapons than any team can adequately prepare for.

The 49ers, on the other hand, have taken a step away from the dynasties of the '80s and '90s and have won this season with physical, tough defense.  They don't make mistakes, but they also limit risks.

Irrelevant Preseason Matchup

It's barely been a day and half since this matchup has been officially determined, and already I'm tired of hearing about the matchup from the first week of the preseason.  

The one in which the Saints beat the 49ers 24-3.  The one in which the Saints sacked 49er quarterbacks six times.  The one that saw Alex Smith go two for seven for 10 yards as well as Drew Brees going one for four for six yards.

That matchup will have no bearing on this game.  

No coach will reference the game tape as the 49ers were two weeks into installing their offense and had yet to move past the fundamentals, let alone fine tune the nuances that make an offense tick.

That game was August 12th, and the divisional match up will be on January 14th.  A lot has changed and there are sixteen games that will better serve the Saints to watch and seventeen games that will better serve to the 49ers to watch.

Turnover Battle

I don't think the final outcome of the game would have been any different, but the game would have been a lot closer had the Lions been able to capitalize on the potential interceptions Drew Brees placed into the hands of their secondary.  

The turnover battle is always one of the biggest factors in determining the outcome of any game, and the 49ers have dominated that statistic more than any other team in the NFL this season.  

Not only are the 49ers first—or last depending on how you look at it—in giveaways, but they are also first in takeaways.  

The 49ers had 38 takeaways this season compared to a mere ten giveaways, a +28 margin.  

The Saints on the other hand took the ball away sixteen times this season compared to giving it away nineteen times, a -3 margin.

It's easy to look at Drew Brees' numbers and say that while it was record breaking, it was too high-risk as evidenced by his fourteen interceptions.  But ever since the Saints loss to the Rams—the Saints last loss by the way—Drew Brees has thrown four interceptions in nine games.  

Those aren't quite Alex Smith numbers (allow some sarcasm here) but they are impressive nonetheless, especially considering the 30 touchdowns he has thrown.

I see the 49ers winning the turnover battle in a big, big way.  

My prediction—the 49ers don't turn the ball over at all and end up with at least a +3 for the day.

Key Matchups

There are always key matchups that help determine the outcome of the game, and this week is no different.  

It also comes as no surprise that the majority of matchups pit offensive players from the Saints against defensive players from the 49ers.

Jermon Bushrod vs. Aldon Smith

Getting pressure on Drew Brees will be paramount.  The 49ers typically only send four pass rushers at any given time, allowing seven defenders versus a max of five receivers for the Saints.  This means it will take the Saints' receivers just a bit more time to get open.  

If Aldon Smith can lead the way for the 49ers pass rush and disrupt the timing of the Saints passing game, it could be a long day for the Saints' offense.

Jahri Evans/Carl Nicks vs. Justin Smith

The Saints have a surprising run offense led by their All-Pro guards. The 49ers' Justin Smith not only made the All-Pro team as a defensive tackle, but he also made it as a second team defensive end.  This forces the Saints to become one-dimensional by stopping the run's falls on the matchup of Justin Smith versus the Saints' two guards.  

Jimmy Graham vs. Patrick Willis

Patrick Willis' ability to stop the run is both revered and well-documented.  It's his coverage against tight ends in the passing game that doesn't get enough credit.  Willis, along with some help from the safeties, will be tasked with stopping Jimmy Graham. 

Andy Lee vs. Darren Sproles

Darren Sproles is a dynamic return man who routinely puts the Saints' offense in good position.  Andy Lee is the NFC's best punter and has consistently helped the 49ers pin the opposing offenses deep in their own territory.  

I think good return teams beat bad coverage teams, and great coverage units can dominate good return games.  I wouldn't expect much from Darren Sproles this week.

Vernon Davis vs. Jonathan Vilma

Vernon Davis has consistently been double and triple-teamed all year.  With only one starting wide receiver left in Week 17, the 49ers relied on Vernon Davis and responded with his biggest game of the year.  

I expect more of the same from the 49ers this week as they will go to Davis early, often and in the red zone. 

A Well-Rested Frank Gore

The only time Frank Gore has been fully healthy for the 49ers was on draft day in 2005.  Gore has always been battling injuries and has put together a nice career despite it.  

With nine carries in Week 17 and a full week off for the Wild Card Round of the playoffs, Frank Gore will be healthier than he has been in quite awhile.  

This is bad news for the Saints as the 49ers will want to keep the Saints' offense off the field.  If Frank Gore can get over 100 yards rushing, the Saints don't have much of a chance.

The Surprising Saints' Rush Offense

The Saints' running backs have done a nice job this year of complimenting Drew Brees and the passing game.  The Saints actually have more rushing yards per game than the 49ers, albeit only by 5.1 yards per game.  But they average more than the 49ers in yards per attempt at 4.9 to 4.1.  

I still think the 49ers have the better rushing attack as they face more defense geared towards stopping the run than the Saints do.  I bring this up for a couple reasons.  One—to give the Saints their due.  And two—to acknowledge another key component for Saturday's game.

If the 49ers can stop the Saints' running game, they can make the Saints one-dimensional and slow down their scoring ability.  The Saints rushed for 167 yards against the Lions last week with 92 yards coming after first contact.  The 49ers have the highest tackling percentage in the league and will not afford the Saints' luxury.  

Bringing down the Saints' running backs is something I expect the 49ers to do.

Home-Field Advantage

The biggest factor in this game is the venue.  If this game were being played in the Superdome, I would expect the Saints to win.  But since it is being played at Candlestick, I expect the 49ers to be victorious.  

I'm sure the Saints fans don't give much credence to the last two games played outdoors, in which they struggled against poor or average teams.  

The grass will be longer and it will slow down the receivers, the air will be colder and it will slow down the deep ball of Drew Brees, and fans will be louder allowing the 49ers' pass rush to get off the ball just as quick as the Saints' offensive lineman.  

If the Saints were to dominate this game it would be high scoring, something like 44-17.  The 49ers can dominate and still end up winning by single digits.  

I expect the 49ers to win the turnover battle, time of possession, field position and do OK in the red zone.  If they do all these they will win the game 30-24.